[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/14073.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Mr. Keynes meets the Classics: Government Spending and the Real Exchange Rate

Author

Listed:
  • Born, Benjamin
  • D'Ascanio, Francesco
  • Müller, Gernot
  • Pfeifer, Johannes
Abstract
In economies with fixed exchange rates, the adjustment to government spending shocks is asymmetric. Expansionary shocks are absorbed by the real exchange rate, contractionary shocks by output. This result emerges in a small open economy model with downward nominal wage rigidity and is supported by new empirical evidence based on panel data from different exchange-rate regimes. The exchange-rate regime, economic slack, inflation, and how spending is financed all matter for the fiscal transmission mechanism in the way predicted by the model. Estimates that fail to distinguish between the effects of positive and negative shocks are subject to a "depreciation bias".

Suggested Citation

  • Born, Benjamin & D'Ascanio, Francesco & Müller, Gernot & Pfeifer, Johannes, 2019. "Mr. Keynes meets the Classics: Government Spending and the Real Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 14073, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14073
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP14073
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 1-27, May.
    2. John T. Addison & Pedro Portugal & Hugo Vilares, 2017. "Unions and Collective Bargaining in the Wake of the Great Recession: Evidence from Portugal," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 55(3), pages 551-576, September.
    3. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1994. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 84-103, March.
    4. Enders, Zeno & Müller, Gernot J. & Scholl, Almuth, 2011. "How do fiscal and technology shocks affect real exchange rates?: New evidence for the United States," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 53-69, January.
    5. Yoon J. Jo & Sarah Zubairy, 2021. "State dependent government spending multipliers: Downward nominal wage rigidity and sources of business cycle fluctuations," Working Papers 20210127-001, Texas A&M University, Department of Economics.
    6. Kleibergen, Frank & Paap, Richard, 2006. "Generalized reduced rank tests using the singular value decomposition," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 97-126, July.
    7. Tauchen, George & Hussey, Robert, 1991. "Quadrature-Based Methods for Obtaining Approximate Solutions to Nonlinear Asset Pricing Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 371-396, March.
    8. Benjamin Born & Gernot J. Müller & Johannes Pfeifer, 2020. "Does Austerity Pay Off?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(2), pages 323-338, May.
    9. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1995. "Nominal interest rates, consumption booms, and lack of credibility: A quantitative examination," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 357-378, April.
    10. Zsolt Darvas, 2012. "Real effective exchange rates for 178 countries: A new database," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1210, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    11. Yoon J. Jo, 2021. "Establishing downward nominal wage rigidity through cyclical changes in the wage distribution," Working Papers 20211216-001, Texas A&M University, Department of Economics.
    12. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carmen M Reinhart & Kenneth S Rogoff, 2019. "Exchange Arrangements Entering the Twenty-First Century: Which Anchor will Hold?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(2), pages 599-646.
    13. Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2011. "When Is the Government Spending Multiplier Large?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 78-121.
    14. John C. Driscoll & Aart C. Kraay, 1998. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation With Spatially Dependent Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 549-560, November.
    15. Michael W. L. Elsby & Gary Solon, 2019. "How Prevalent Is Downward Rigidity in Nominal Wages? International Evidence from Payroll Records and Pay Slips," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(3), pages 185-201, Summer.
    16. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1997. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 557-586, May.
    17. John Grigsby & Erik Hurst & Ahu Yildirmaz, 2021. "Aggregate Nominal Wage Adjustments: New Evidence from Administrative Payroll Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(2), pages 428-471, February.
    18. Ilzetzki, Ethan & Mendoza, Enrique G. & Végh, Carlos A., 2013. "How big (small?) are fiscal multipliers?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 239-254.
    19. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(8), pages 2644-2678, August.
    20. Emi Nakamura & J?n Steinsson, 2014. "Fiscal Stimulus in a Monetary Union: Evidence from US Regions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(3), pages 753-792, March.
    21. Laurent Ferrara & Luca Metelli & Filippo Natoli & Daniele Siena, 2020. "Questioning the puzzle: Fiscal policy, exchange rate and inflation," Working papers 752, Banque de France.
    22. Uribe, Martin, 1997. "Exchange-rate-based inflation stabilization: The initial real effects of credible plans," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 197-221, July.
    23. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    24. José Luis Montiel Olea & Carolin Pflueger, 2013. "A Robust Test for Weak Instruments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 358-369, July.
    25. Lutz Kilian & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2011. "Are the responses of the U.S. economy asymmetric in energy price increases and decreases?," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 2(3), pages 419-453, November.
    26. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2014. "Austerity, Growth and Inflation: Remarks on the Eurozone's Unresolved Competitiveness Problem," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 1-13, January.
    27. Tommaso Monacelli & Roberto Perotti, 2010. "Fiscal Policy, the Real Exchange Rate and Traded Goods," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(544), pages 437-461, May.
    28. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1992. "Dynamics of the trade balance and the terms of trade: the J-curve revisited," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 65, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    29. Giavazzi, Francesco & Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 2000. "Searching for non-linear effects of fiscal policy: Evidence from industrial and developing countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1259-1289, June.
    30. Addison, John T. & Portugal, Pedro & Vilares, Hugo, 2015. "Unions and Collective Bargaining in the Wake of the Great Recession," IZA Discussion Papers 8943, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    31. Shen, Wenyi & Yang, Shu-Chun S., 2018. "Downward nominal wage rigidity and state-dependent government spending multipliers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 11-26.
    32. Liu, Siming, 2022. "Government spending during sudden stop crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    33. Miyamoto, Wataru & Nguyen, Thuy Lan & Sheremirov, Viacheslav, 2019. "The effects of government spending on real exchange rates: Evidence from military spending panel data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 144-157.
    34. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2008. "Twin deficit or twin divergence? Fiscal policy, current account, and real exchange rate in the U.S," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 362-383, March.
    35. Dr. Matthias Burgert & Philipp Pfeiffer & Werner Roeger, 2021. "Fiscal policy in a monetary union with downward nominal wage rigidity," Working Papers 2021-16, Swiss National Bank.
    36. Valerie A. Ramey & Sarah Zubairy, 2018. "Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from US Historical Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(2), pages 850-901.
    37. Kim, Soyoung, 2015. "Country characteristics and the effects of government consumption shocks on the current account and real exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 436-447.
    38. Ferrara, Laurent & Metelli, Luca & Natoli, Filippo & Siena, Daniele, 2021. "Questioning the puzzle: Fiscal policy, real exchange rate and inflation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    39. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-247, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Anne Kathrin Funk & Daniel Kaufmann, 2022. "Do Sticky Wages Matter? New Evidence from Matched Firm Survey and Register Data," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 89(355), pages 689-712, July.
    2. Laurent Ferrara & Luca Metelli & Filippo Natoli & Daniele Siena, 2020. "Questioning the puzzle: Fiscal policy, exchange rate and inflation," Working papers 752, Banque de France.
    3. Kim, Hyeongwoo & Shao, Peng & Zhang, Shuwei, 2023. "Policy coordination and the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    4. James Cloyne & Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2023. "State-Dependent Local Projections: Understanding Impulse Response Heterogeneity," Working Paper Series 2023-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. Benatti, Nicola & Groiss, Martin & Kelly, Petra & Lopez-Garcia, Paloma, 2024. "Environmental regulation and productivity growth in the euro area: Testing the porter hypothesis," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    6. Mr. Tidiane Kinda & Andras Lengyel & Kaustubh Chahande, 2022. "Fiscal Multipliers During Pandemics," IMF Working Papers 2022/149, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Lukasz Wiktor Olejnik, 2023. "Economic growth and military expenditure in the countries on NATOʼs Eastern flank in 1999–2021," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2023-2, Bank of Estonia, revised 09 May 2023.
    8. Ferrara, Laurent & Metelli, Luca & Natoli, Filippo & Siena, Daniele, 2021. "Questioning the puzzle: Fiscal policy, real exchange rate and inflation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    9. Naser Yenus Nuru & Hayelom Yrgaw Gereziher, 2021. "The impacts of public expenditure innovations on real exchange rate volatility in South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2021-72, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    10. Wataru Hirata & Toshitaka Maruyama & Tomohide Mineyama, 2020. "Flattening of the Wage Phillips Curve and Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity: The Japanese Experience in the 2010s," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 20-E-4, Bank of Japan.
    11. Dr. Matthias Burgert & Philipp Pfeiffer & Werner Roeger, 2021. "Fiscal policy in a monetary union with downward nominal wage rigidity," Working Papers 2021-16, Swiss National Bank.
    12. Ricardo Duque Gabriel & Mathias Klein & Ana Sofia Pessoa, 2023. "The Effects of Government Spending in the Eurozone," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(4), pages 1397-1427.
    13. Gancho Ganchev & Ivan Todorov, 2021. "Taxation, government spending and economic growth: The case of Bulgaria," Journal of Tax Reform, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 7(3), pages 255-266.
    14. Yoon J. Jo & Sarah Zubairy, 2021. "State dependent government spending multipliers: Downward nominal wage rigidity and sources of business cycle fluctuations," Working Papers 20210127-001, Texas A&M University, Department of Economics.
    15. Olejnik, Łukasz Wiktor, 2023. "Short-run multiplier effects of military expenditures in NATO's Eastern Flank countries in 1999–2021," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 1344-1355.
    16. Mamondi Victor Daniel & Oviedo Jorge & De la Rosa Adolfo, 2023. "El-Déficit-Fiscal-Deteriora-el-Tipo-de-Cambio-Real.-Evidencias-por-medio-de-un-modelo-de-EGDE-para-Argentina," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4666, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    17. HSING, Yu, 2021. "Are The Predictions Of The Mundell-Fleming Model Applicable To Argentina?," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 21(1), pages 37-48.
    18. Liu, Siming, 2022. "Government spending during sudden stop crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    19. Ramona Tiganasu & Gabriela Carmen Pascariu & Dan Lupu, 2022. "Competitiveness, fiscal policy and corruption: evidence from Central and Eastern European countries," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 13(3), pages 667-698, September.
    20. Haug, Alfred A. & Sznajderska, Anna, 2024. "Government spending multipliers: Is there a difference between government consumption and investment purchases?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    21. Mario Di Serio & Matteo Fragetta & Emanuel Gasteiger & Giovanni Melina, 2022. "The Euro Area Government Spending Multiplier in Demand- and Supply-Driven Recessions," CESifo Working Paper Series 9678, CESifo.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Benjamin Born & Francesco D'Ascanio & Gernot Müller & Johannes Pfeifer, 2019. "The Worst of Both Worlds: Fiscal Policy and Fixed Exchange Rates," CESifo Working Paper Series 7922, CESifo.
    2. Benjamin Born & Gernot J. Müller & Johannes Pfeifer, 2020. "Does Austerity Pay Off?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(2), pages 323-338, May.
    3. Cardi, Olivier & Restout, Romain, 2023. "Sectoral fiscal multipliers and technology in open economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    4. Giancarlo Corsetti & André Meier & Gernot J. Müller, 2012. "What determines government spending multipliers? [Mafia and public spending: Evidence of the fiscal multiplier from a quasi-experiment’, mimeo]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 27(72), pages 521-565.
    5. Laurent Ferrara & Luca Metelli & Filippo Natoli & Daniele Siena, 2020. "Questioning the puzzle: Fiscal policy, exchange rate and inflation," Working papers 752, Banque de France.
    6. Sheremirov, Viacheslav & Spirovska, Sandra, 2022. "Fiscal multipliers in advanced and developing countries: Evidence from military spending," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    7. Ferrara, Laurent & Metelli, Luca & Natoli, Filippo & Siena, Daniele, 2021. "Questioning the puzzle: Fiscal policy, real exchange rate and inflation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    8. Liu, Siming, 2022. "Government spending during sudden stop crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    9. Miyamoto, Wataru & Nguyen, Thuy Lan & Sheremirov, Viacheslav, 2019. "The effects of government spending on real exchange rates: Evidence from military spending panel data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 144-157.
    10. Boehm, Christoph E., 2020. "Government consumption and investment: Does the composition of purchases affect the multiplier?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 80-93.
    11. Berge, Travis & De Ridder, Maarten & Pfajfar, Damjan, 2021. "When is the fiscal multiplier high? A comparison of four business cycle phases," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    12. Born, Benjamin & Juessen, Falko & Müller, Gernot J., 2013. "Exchange rate regimes and fiscal multipliers," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 446-465.
    13. Fernando Broner & Daragh Clancy & Aitor Erce & Alberto Martin, 2022. "Fiscal Multipliers and Foreign Holdings of Public Debt," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(3), pages 1155-1204.
    14. Sangyup Choi & Davide Furceri & Chansik Yoon, 2021. "International Fiscal-Financial Spillovers:the Effect of Fiscal Shocks on Cross-Border Bank Lending," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 259-290, April.
    15. Mathias Klein & Roland Winkler, 2021. "The government spending multiplier at the zero lower bound: International evidence from historical data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(6), pages 744-759, September.
    16. Choi, Sangyup & Shin, Junhyeok & Yoo, Seung Yong, 2022. "Are government spending shocks inflationary at the zero lower bound? New evidence from daily data," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    17. House, Christopher L. & Proebsting, Christian & Tesar, Linda L., 2020. "Austerity in the aftermath of the great recession," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 37-63.
    18. Jørgensen, Peter L. & Ravn, Søren H., 2022. "The inflation response to government spending shocks: A fiscal price puzzle?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    19. Siming Liu, 2018. "Spending Multiplier during Sudden Stop Crises," 2018 Meeting Papers 226, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. Mr. Tidiane Kinda & Andras Lengyel & Kaustubh Chahande, 2022. "Fiscal Multipliers During Pandemics," IMF Working Papers 2022/149, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14073. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.