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A toolkit for computing Constrained Optimal Policy Projections (COPPs)

Author

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  • de Groot, Oliver
  • Mazelis, Falk
  • Motto, Roberto
  • Ristiniemi, Annukka
Abstract
This paper presents a toolkit for generating optimal policy projections. It makes five contributions. First, the toolkit requires a minimal set of inputs: only a baseline projection for target and instrument variables and impulse responses of those variables to policy shocks. Second, it solves optimal policy projections under commitment, limited-time commitment, and discretion. Third, it handles multiple policy instruments. Fourth, it handles multiple constraints on policy instruments such as a lower bound on the policy rate and an upper bound on asset purchases. Fifth, it allows alternative approaches to address the forward guidance puzzle. The toolkit that accompanies this paper is Dynare compatible, which facilitates its use. Examples replicate existing results in the optimal monetary policy literature and illustrate the usefulness of the toolkit for highlighting policy trade-offs. We use the toolkit to analyse US monetary policy at the height of the Great Financial Crisis. Given the Fed’s early-2009 baseline macroeconomic projections, we find the Fed’s planned use of the policy rate was close to optimal whereas a more aggressive QE program would have been beneficial.

Suggested Citation

  • de Groot, Oliver & Mazelis, Falk & Motto, Roberto & Ristiniemi, Annukka, 2022. "A toolkit for computing Constrained Optimal Policy Projections (COPPs)," CEPR Discussion Papers 16865, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:16865
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    Cited by:

    1. Alisdair McKay & Christian K. Wolf, 2023. "What Can Time‐Series Regressions Tell Us About Policy Counterfactuals?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(5), pages 1695-1725, September.
    2. Harrison, Richard & Waldron, Matt, 2021. "Optimal policy with occasionally binding constraints: piecewise linear solution methods," Bank of England working papers 911, Bank of England.
    3. Chen, Pu & Semmler, Willi, 2024. "Wage – price dynamics and financial market in a disequilibrium macro model: A Keynes – Kaldor – Minsky modeling of recession and inflation using VECM," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 220(C), pages 433-452.
    4. De Rezende, Rafael B. & Ristiniemi, Annukka, 2023. "A shadow rate without a lower bound constraint," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    5. Cecion, Martina & Coenen, Günter & Gerke, Rafael & Le Bihan, Hervé & Motto, Roberto & Aguilar, Pablo & Ajevskis, Viktors & Giesen, Sebastian & Albertazzi, Ugo & Gilbert, Niels & Al-Haschimi, Alexander, 2021. "The ECB’s price stability framework: past experience, and current and future challenges," Occasional Paper Series 269, European Central Bank.
    6. Dengler, Thomas & Gerke, Rafael & Giesen, Sebastian & Kienzler, Daniel & Röttger, Joost & Scheer, Alexander & Wacks, Johannes, 2024. "A primer on optimal policy projections," Technical Papers 01/2024, Deutsche Bundesbank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Optimal monetary policy; Commitment vs. discretion; Lower bound; Asset purchases; Forward guidance puzzle;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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