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Quest for Robust Optimal Macroprudential Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Aguilar, Pablo
  • Fahr, Stephan
  • Gerba, Eddie
  • Hurtado, Samuel
Abstract
This paper contributes by providing a new approach to study optimal macroprudential policies based on economy wide welfare. Following Gerba (2017), we pin down a welfare function based on a first-and second order approximation of the aggregate utility in the economy and use it to determine the merits of different macroprudential rules for the Euro Area. With the aim to test this framework, we apply it to the model of Clerc et al (2015). In this model, we find that the optimal level of capital is 15.6 percent, or 2.4 percentage points higher than the 2001-2015 value. Optimal capital reduces significantly the volatility of the economy while increasing somewhat the total level of welfare in steady state, even with a time-invariant instrument. Expressed differently, bank default rates would have been 3.5 percentage points lower while credit (GDP) 5% (0.8%) higher had optimal capital level been in place during the 2011-13 crisis. Further, we find that the optimal Countercyclical Capital Buffer rule depends on whether observed or optimal capital levels are already in place. Conditional on optimal capital level, optimal CCyB rule should respond to movements in total credit and mortgage lending spreads. Gains in welfare from an optimal combination of instruments is higher than the sum of their individual effects due to synergies and spillovers.

Suggested Citation

  • Aguilar, Pablo & Fahr, Stephan & Gerba, Eddie & Hurtado, Samuel, 2020. "Quest for Robust Optimal Macroprudential Policy," Dynare Working Papers 53, CEPREMAP.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpm:dynare:053
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Emmanuel Farhi & Iván Werning, 2016. "A Theory of Macroprudential Policies in the Presence of Nominal Rigidities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 1645-1704, September.
    2. Caterina Mendicino & Kalin Nikolov & Javier Suarez & Dominik Supera, 2018. "Optimal Dynamic Capital Requirements," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(6), pages 1271-1297, September.
    3. Laurent Clerc & Alexis Derviz & Caterina Mendicino & Stephane Moyen & Kalin Nikolov & Livio Stracca & Javier Suarez & Alexandros P. Vardoulakis, 2015. "Capital Regulation in a Macroeconomic Model with Three Layers of Default," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(3), pages 9-63, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gerba, Eddie & Katsoulis, Petros, 2021. "The repo market under Basel III," Bank of England working papers 954, Bank of England.
    2. Garcia-Villegas, Salomon & Martorell, Enric, 2024. "Climate transition risk and the role of bank capital requirements," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    3. Stephen Millard, & Margarita Rubio & Alexandra Varadi, 2020. "The impact of Covid-19 on productivity," Discussion Papers 2020/14, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    4. Nadezhda Ivanova & Mikhail Andreev & Andrey Sinyakov & Ivan Shevchuk, 2019. "Review of Bank of Russia Conference on 'Macroprudential Policy Effectiveness: Theory and Practice'," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 78(3), pages 89-121, September.
    5. Stephen Millard & Margarita Rubio & Alexandra Varadi, 2024. "The Macroprudential Toolkit: Effectiveness and Interactions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 86(2), pages 335-384, April.
    6. Cokayne, Graeme & Gerba, Eddie & Kuchler, Andreas & Pank Roulund, Rasmus, 2024. "“Thank me later”: Why is (macro)prudence desirable?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial stability; global welfare analysis; financial DSGE model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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