[go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ctl/louvir/2019018.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Costly Default And Asymmetric Real Business Cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Patrick Fève

    (Toulouse School of Economics and Université Toulouse 1)

  • Pablo Garcia Sanchez

    (Banque centrale du Luxembourg, Département Economie et Recherche)

  • Alban Moura

    (Banque centrale du Luxembourg, Département Economie et Recherche)

  • Olivier Pierrard

    (Banque centrale du Luxembourg, Département Economie et Recherche)

Abstract
We augment a simple Real Business Cycle model with financial interme-diaries that may default on their liabilities and a financial friction generating social costs of default. We provide a closed-form solution for the general equilibrium of the economy under specific assumptions, allowing for analytic results and straightforward simulations. Endogenous default generates asymmetric business cycles and our model replicates both the negative skew of GDP and the positive skew of credit spreads found in US data. Stronger financial frictions cause a rise in asymmetry and amplify the welfare costs of default. A Pigouvian tax on financial intermediation mitigates most of these negative effects at the cost of a steady-state distortion.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Fève & Pablo Garcia Sanchez & Alban Moura & Olivier Pierrard, 2019. "Costly Default And Asymmetric Real Business Cycles," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2019018, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  • Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvir:2019018
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://sites.uclouvain.be/econ/DP/IRES/2019018.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Javier Bianchi, 2011. "Overborrowing and Systemic Externalities in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3400-3426, December.
    2. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Yuliy Sannikov, 2014. "A Macroeconomic Model with a Financial Sector," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(2), pages 379-421, February.
    3. Acemoglu, Daron & Scott, Andrew, 1997. "Asymmetric business cycles: Theory and time-series evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 501-533, December.
    4. Jensen, Henrik & Ravn, Søren Hove & Santoro, Emiliano, 2018. "Changing credit limits, changing business cycles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 211-239.
    5. Chari, V.V. & Kehoe, Patrick J., 1999. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 26, pages 1671-1745, Elsevier.
    6. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2011. "Investment Shocks and the Relative Price of Investment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 101-121, January.
    7. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
    8. Suarez, Javier & Martinez-Miera, David, 2012. "A Macroeconomic Model of Endogenous Systemic Risk Taking," CEPR Discussion Papers 9134, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Justiniano, Alejandro & Primiceri, Giorgio E. & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2010. "Investment shocks and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 132-145, March.
    10. Edward Lazear, 1983. "Intergenerational Externalities," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 16(2), pages 212-228, May.
    11. Alban Moura, 2018. "Investment Shocks, Sticky Prices, and the Endogenous Relative Price of Investment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 27, pages 48-63, January.
    12. Charles A.E. Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2005. "A risk assessment model for banks," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 197-224, September.
    13. Potter, Simon M, 1995. "A Nonlinear Approach to US GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 109-125, April-Jun.
    14. Van den Heuvel, Skander J., 2008. "The welfare cost of bank capital requirements," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 298-320, March.
    15. Francois Gourio, 2012. "Disaster Risk and Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2734-2766, October.
    16. John, A & Pecchenino, R, 1994. "An Overlapping Generations Model of Growth and the Environment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(427), pages 1393-1410, November.
    17. Henrik Jensen & Ivan Petrella & Søren Hove Ravn & Emiliano Santoro, 2020. "Leverage and Deepening Business-Cycle Skewness," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 245-281, January.
    18. Gregory deWalque & Olivier Pierrard & Abdelaziz Rouabah, 2010. "Financial (In)Stability, Supervision and Liquidity Injections: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(549), pages 1234-1261, December.
    19. Bennett T. McCallum, 1988. "Real Business Cycle Models," NBER Working Papers 2480, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2006. "The Dynamic Effects of Neutral and Investment-Specific Technology Shocks," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(3), pages 413-451, June.
    21. Frederic Malherbe, 2020. "Optimal Capital Requirements over the Business and Financial Cycles," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 139-174, July.
    22. Lester, Robert & Pries, Michael & Sims, Eric, 2014. "Volatility and welfare," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 17-36.
    23. Fabrice Collard & Harris Dellas & Behzad Diba & Olivier Loisel, 2017. "Optimal Monetary and Prudential Policies," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 40-87, January.
    24. Abbritti, Mirko & Fahr, Stephan, 2013. "Downward wage rigidity and business cycle asymmetries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(7), pages 871-886.
    25. Jeanne, Olivier & Korinek, Anton, 2019. "Managing credit booms and busts: A Pigouvian taxation approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 2-17.
    26. Enrique G. Mendoza & Vivian Z. Yue, 2012. "A General Equilibrium Model of Sovereign Default and Business Cycles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(2), pages 889-946.
    27. Mr. Luc Laeven & Mr. Fabian Valencia, 2018. "Systemic Banking Crises Revisited," IMF Working Papers 2018/206, International Monetary Fund.
    28. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2007. "On the solution of the growth model with investment-specific technological change," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(8), pages 549-553.
    29. Nicholas Bloom & Fatih Guvenen & Sergio Salgado, 2016. "Skewed Business Cycles," 2016 Meeting Papers 1621, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    30. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    31. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2020. "Disasters Everywhere: The Costs of Business Cycles Reconsidered," NBER Working Papers 26962, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Carlstrom, Charles T & Fuerst, Timothy S, 1997. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(5), pages 893-910, December.
    33. Rietz, Thomas A., 1988. "The equity risk premium a solution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 117-131, July.
    34. Cristina Arellano, 2008. "Default Risk and Income Fluctuations in Emerging Economies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 690-712, June.
    35. Laurent Clerc & Alexis Derviz & Caterina Mendicino & Stephane Moyen & Kalin Nikolov & Livio Stracca & Javier Suarez & Alexandros P. Vardoulakis, 2015. "Capital Regulation in a Macroeconomic Model with Three Layers of Default," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(3), pages 9-63, June.
    36. Aguiar, Mark & Gopinath, Gita, 2006. "Defaultable debt, interest rates and the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 64-83, June.
    37. Caterina Mendicino & Kalin Nikolov & Javier Suarez & Dominik Supera, 2018. "Optimal Dynamic Capital Requirements," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(6), pages 1271-1297, September.
    38. James Morley & Jeremy Piger, 2012. "The Asymmetric Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(1), pages 208-221, February.
    39. Alban Moura, 2018. "Investment Shocks, Sticky Prices, and the Endogenous Relative Price of Investment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 27, pages 48-63, January.
    40. Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn & Veldkamp, Laura, 2006. "Learning asymmetries in real business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 753-772, May.
    41. Robert J. Barro, 2009. "Rare Disasters, Asset Prices, and Welfare Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(1), pages 243-264, March.
    42. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    43. Xavier Gabaix, 2012. "Variable Rare Disasters: An Exactly Solved Framework for Ten Puzzles in Macro-Finance," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(2), pages 645-700.
    44. Robert J. Barro, 2006. "Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(3), pages 823-866.
    45. Luca Guerrieri & Matteo Iacoviello & Francisco Covas & John C. Driscoll & Mohammad Jahan-Parvar & Michael Kiley & Albert Queralto & Jae Sim, 2019. "Macroeconomic Effects of Banking-Sector Losses across Structural Models," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(3), pages 137-204, September.
    46. Samuel G. Hanson & Anil K. Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein, 2011. "A Macroprudential Approach to Financial Regulation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(1), pages 3-28, Winter.
    47. Guillermo Ordoñez, 2013. "The Asymmetric Effects of Financial Frictions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 121(5), pages 844-895.
    48. Paolo Angelini & Stefano Neri & Fabio Panetta, 2014. "The Interaction between Capital Requirements and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(6), pages 1073-1112, September.
    49. Angeloni, Ignazio & Faia, Ester, 2013. "Capital regulation and monetary policy with fragile banks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 311-324.
    50. repec:wrk:wrkemf:21 is not listed on IDEAS
    51. Sebastian Di Tella, 2019. "Optimal Regulation of Financial Intermediaries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(1), pages 271-313, January.
    52. Gary D. Hansen & Edward C. Prescott, 2005. "Capacity constraints, asymmetries, and the business cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(4), pages 850-865, October.
    53. Neftci, Salih N, 1984. "Are Economic Time Series Asymmetric over the Business Cycle?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(2), pages 307-328, April.
    54. Gertler, Mark & Karadi, Peter, 2011. "A model of unconventional monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-34, January.
    55. Begenau, Juliane, 2020. "Capital requirements, risk choice, and liquidity provision in a business-cycle model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 355-378.
    56. Altuğ, Sumru & Ashley, Richard A. & Patterson, Douglas M., 1999. "Are Technology Shocks Nonlinear?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(4), pages 506-533, December.
    57. Gertler, Mark & Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Queralto, Albert, 2012. "Financial crises, bank risk exposure and government financial policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(S), pages 17-34.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Iseringhausen, Martin & Petrella, Ivan & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2021. "Aggregate Skewness and the Business Cycle," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2021/30, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    2. Yu, Baojun & Li, Changming & Mirza, Nawazish & Umar, Muhammad, 2022. "Forecasting credit ratings of decarbonized firms: Comparative assessment of machine learning models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    3. Aubhik Khan & Soyoung Lee, 2023. "Persistent Debt and Business Cycles in an Economy with Production Heterogeneity," Staff Working Papers 23-17, Bank of Canada.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fève, Patrick & Sanchez, Pablo Garcia & Moura, Alban & Pierrard, Olivier, 2021. "Costly default and skewed business cycles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    2. Matthieu Darracq Paries, 2018. "Financial frictions and monetary policy conduct," Erudite Ph.D Dissertations, Erudite, number ph18-01 edited by Ferhat Mihoubi.
    3. Laurent Clerc & Alexis Derviz & Caterina Mendicino & Stephane Moyen & Kalin Nikolov & Livio Stracca & Javier Suarez & Alexandros P. Vardoulakis, 2015. "Capital Regulation in a Macroeconomic Model with Three Layers of Default," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(3), pages 9-63, June.
    4. Iseringhausen, Martin & Petrella, Ivan & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2021. "Aggregate Skewness and the Business Cycle," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2021/30, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    5. Coimbra, Nuno, 2020. "Sovereigns at risk: A dynamic model of sovereign debt and banking leverage," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    6. Mendicino, Caterina & Nikolov, Kalin & Suarez, Javier & Supera, Dominik, 2020. "Bank capital in the short and in the long run," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 64-79.
    7. Clancy, Daragh & Merola, Rossana, 2017. "Countercyclical capital rules for small open economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PB), pages 332-351.
    8. Nelson, Benjamin & Pinter, Gabor, 2018. "Macroprudential capital regulation in general equilibrium," Bank of England working papers 770, Bank of England.
    9. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2016_016 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Caterina Mendicino & Kalin Nikolov & Javier Suarez & Dominik Supera, 2018. "Optimal Dynamic Capital Requirements," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(6), pages 1271-1297, September.
    11. Manuel A. Muñoz, 2021. "Rethinking Capital Regulation: The Case for a Dividend Prudential Target," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(3), pages 271-336, September.
    12. Kilponen, Juha & Orjasniemi, Seppo & Ripatti, Antti & Verona, Fabio, 2016. "The Aino 2.0 model," Research Discussion Papers 16/2016, Bank of Finland.
    13. Eric Jondeau & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2018. "A General Equilibrium Appraisal of Capital Shortfall," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 18-12, Swiss Finance Institute, revised Feb 2018.
    14. Gulan, Adam & Jokivuolle, Esa & Verona, Fabio, 2022. "Optimal bank capital requirements: What do the macroeconomic models say?," BoF Economics Review 2/2022, Bank of Finland.
    15. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    16. Kilponen, Juha & Orjasniemi, Seppo & Ripatti, Antti & Verona, Fabio, 2016. "The Aino 2.0 model," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 16/2016, Bank of Finland.
    17. Ogawa, Toshiaki, 2022. "Welfare implications of bank capital requirements under dynamic default decisions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    18. Jondeau, Eric & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2022. "Bank capital shortfall in the euro area," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    19. Caterina Mendicino & Kalin Nikolov & Juan Rubio-Ramirez & Javier Suarez, 2020. "Twin Default Crises," Working Papers 2020-01, FEDEA.
    20. Vadim Elenev & Tim Landvoigt & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2021. "A Macroeconomic Model With Financially Constrained Producers and Intermediaries," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(3), pages 1361-1418, May.
    21. Falter, Alexander, 2019. "Macro to the rescue? An analysis of macroprudential instruments to regulate housing credit," Discussion Papers 25/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real Business Cycle model; default; financial frictions; asymmetry; skewness;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ctl:louvir:2019018. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Virginie LEBLANC (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iruclbe.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.