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Effects of Macroeconomic Shocks to the Quality of the Aggregate Loan Portfolio

Author

Listed:
  • Ivan Baboucek
  • Martin Jancar
Abstract
The paper concerns macro-prudential analysis. It uses an unrestricted VAR model to empirically investigate transmission involving a set of macroeconomic variables describing the development of the Czech economy and the functioning of its credit channel in the past eleven years. Its novelty lies in the fact that it provides the first systematic assessment of the links between loan quality and macroeconomic shocks in the Czech context. The VAR methodology is applied to monthly data transformed into percentage change. The out-of-sample forecast indicates that the most likely outlook for the quality of the banking sector's loan portfolio is that up to the end of 2006 the share of non-performing loans in it will follow a slightly downward trend below double-digit rates. The impulse response is augmented by stress testing exercises that enable us to determine a macroeconomic early warning signal of any worsening in the quality of banks' loans. The paper suggests that the Czech banking sector has attained a considerable ability to withstand a credit risk shock and that the banking sector's stability is compatible both with price stability and with economic growth. Despite being devoted to empirical investigation, the paper pays great attention to methodological issues. At the same time it tries to present both the VAR model and its results transparently and to openly discuss their weak points, which to a large degree can be attributed to data constraints or to the evolutionary nature of an economy in transition.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivan Baboucek & Martin Jancar, 2005. "Effects of Macroeconomic Shocks to the Quality of the Aggregate Loan Portfolio," Working Papers 2005/01, Czech National Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2005/01
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Baselga-Pascual, Laura & Trujillo-Ponce, Antonio & Cardone-Riportella, Clara, 2015. "Factors influencing bank risk in Europe: Evidence from the financial crisis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 138-166.
    2. Tomasz Korol, 2021. "Examining Statistical Methods in Forecasting Financial Energy of Households in Poland and Taiwan," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-14, March.
    3. Mahmoud Abdelaziz Touny & Mohamed Abdelhameed Shehab, 2015. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Non-Performing Loans: An Empirical Study of Some Arab Countries," American Journal of Economics and Business Administration, Science Publications, vol. 7(1), pages 11-22, May.
    4. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Di Colli, Stefano & Lopez, Juan Sergio, 2014. "Bank lending procyclicality and credit quality during financial crises," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 142-157.
    5. Rosle, Alia Nadira & Masih, Mansur, 2018. "Can the islamic banks’ credit risk be explained by macroeconomic shocks? evidence from Malaysia," MPRA Paper 107059, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Eftychia Nikolaidou & Sofoklis Vogiazas, 2014. "Credit Risk Determinants for the Bulgarian Banking System," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 20(1), pages 87-102, February.
    7. Adam Głogowski, 2008. "Macroeconomic determinants of Polish banks’ loan losses – results of a panel data study," NBP Working Papers 53, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    8. Mr. Martin Cihak, 2007. "Introduction to Applied Stress Testing," IMF Working Papers 2007/059, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Petr Jakubik & Eyup Kadioglu, 2022. "Factors affecting bank loan quality: a panel analysis of emerging markets," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 437-458, July.
    10. Mejra Festić & Sebastijan Repina & Alenka Kavkler, 2009. "The overheating of five EU new member states and cyclicality of systemic risk in the banking sector," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 219-232, May.
    11. Sapian, Safeza & Masih, Mansur, 2018. "Do macroeconomic factors affect the credit risk of islamic banks? evidence from Malaysia," MPRA Paper 100719, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Ptasica Tatjana, 2019. "Modeling the influence of inflation on the level of non-performing loans in Cyprus commercial banks," Technology audit and production reserves, 1(45) 2019, Socionet;Technology audit and production reserves, vol. 1(5(45)), pages 36-38.
    13. Niyogi Sinha Roy, Tanima & Bhattacharya, Basabi, 2011. "Macroeconomic Stress Testing and the Resilience of the Indian Banking System: A Focus on Credit Risk," MPRA Paper 30263, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Heidari , Hadi & Valipour Pasha , Mohammad & Ahmadyan , Azam, 2015. "Shock Dating on Iranian Banking Network's Balance Sheet," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 10(3), pages 123-149, July.
    15. Giuliana Birindelli & Paola Ferretti & Marco Savioli, 2016. "Basel 3: Does One Size Really Fit All Banks' Business Models?," Working Paper series 16-20, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    16. Giuliana Birindelli & Paola Ferretti & Giovanni Ferri & Marco Savioli, 2022. "Regulatory reform and banking diversity: reassessing Basel 3," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 429-456, December.
    17. Semia, Rachid, 2019. "The determiants of non-performing loans: Do institutions matter? A comparative analysis of the MENA and CEE countries," MPRA Paper 96428, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Tomáš Havránek & Roman Horváth & Jakub Matějů, 2012. "Monetary transmission and the financial sector in the Czech Republic," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 135-155, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Czech Republic; Macro-prudential analysis; Non-performing loans; VAR model.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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