[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mbr/jmonec/v10y2015i3p123-149.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Shock Dating on Iranian Banking Network's Balance Sheet

Author

Listed:
  • Heidari , Hadi

    (Monetary and Banking Research Institute (MBRI), Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran (CBI))

  • Valipour Pasha , Mohammad

    (Monetary and Banking Research Institute (MBRI), Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran (CBI))

  • Ahmadyan , Azam

    (Monetary and Banking Research Institute (MBRI), Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran (CBI))

Abstract
The real macroeconomic instability and frequent changes in the monetary and banking regulations with financial contagion to the banks' financial statements in the banking network of Iran cause intensified instabilities in its financial behaviors. In this paper, using statistical analysis and three-dimensional charts, we have analyzed the behavior of the financial statements of consolidated balance sheets covering the banking network of Iran. The paper also uses a non-linear estimation to calculate the threshold value regarding financial statements such as the nonperforming loan ratio. Results indicate that the banking network financial statements must be restructured due to exogenous shocks. Also, in the recession periods of the year 2011 fourth period and 2012 first period, the recession has reached the banking network with lag and banks have been able to change the return on assets ratio regimes neither in the year 2011 nor in the beginning months of the year 2012. Furthermore, the banks have started a contracting policy in providing loans. As time passes, yields and the performing loans depict the fact that yields on assets as profit indicators are increased unless the interest earning and different periods of time changes are also augmented. Going beyond the critical threshold, generating loans will be likely to drive non-performing loans since these loans are not going to be reimbursed. Banks will have to extend their loans to new loan contracts to consider them as performing which will lead to identification of fake profits in their statements.

Suggested Citation

  • Heidari , Hadi & Valipour Pasha , Mohammad & Ahmadyan , Azam, 2015. "Shock Dating on Iranian Banking Network's Balance Sheet," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 10(3), pages 123-149, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:mbr:jmonec:v:10:y:2015:i:3:p:123-149
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://jme.mbri.ac.ir/article-1-209-en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://jme.mbri.ac.ir/article-1-209-en.html
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stefan Gerlach & Wensheng Peng & Chang Shu, 2005. "Macroeconomic conditions and banking performance in Hong Kong SAR: a panel data study," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 481-97, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Miguel Segoviano, 2006. "Conditional Probabilty of Default Methodolgy," FMG Discussion Papers dp558, Financial Markets Group.
    3. Ivan Baboucek & Martin Jancar, 2005. "Effects of Macroeconomic Shocks to the Quality of the Aggregate Loan Portfolio," Working Papers 2005/01, Czech National Bank.
    4. Bank for International Settlements, 2005. "Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 22.
    5. Miguel A. Segoviano, 2006. "Portfolio Credit Risk and Macroeconomic Shocks: Applications to Stress Testing Under Data-Restricted Environments," IMF Working Papers 2006/283, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Segoviano, Miguel A., 2006. "Conditional probability of default methodology," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24512, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Altman, Edward I. & Bharath, Sreedhar T. & Saunders, Anthony, 2002. "Credit ratings and the BIS capital adequacy reform agenda," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 909-921, May.
    8. Miguel Segoviano, 2006. "Consistent Information Multivariate Density Optimizing Methodology," FMG Discussion Papers dp557, Financial Markets Group.
    9. Segoviano, Miguel A., 2006. "Consistent information multivariate density optimizing methodology," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24511, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Markus Arpa & Irene Giulini & Andreas Ittner & Franz Pauer, 2001. "The influence of macroeconomic developments on Austrian banks: implications for banking supervision," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 91-116, Bank for International Settlements.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Miguel A. Segoviano & Charles Goodhart, 2010. "Distress Dependence and Financial Stability," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 569, Central Bank of Chile.
    2. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Cyprus: Financial Sector Assessment Program Update: Technical Note: Measuring Banking Stability in Cyprus," IMF Staff Country Reports 2009/171, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Zineddine Alla & Mr. Raphael A Espinoza & Qiaoluan H. Li & Miguel A. Segoviano, 2018. "Macroprudential Stress Tests: A Reduced-Form Approach to Quantifying Systemic Risk Losses," IMF Working Papers 2018/049, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Segoviano, Miguel A. & Goodhart, Charles, 2009. "Banking stability measures," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24416, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Fabio Cortes & Peter Lindner & Sheheryar Malik & Miguel A. Segoviano, 2018. "A Comprehensive Multi-Sector Tool for Analysis of Systemic Risk and Interconnectedness (SyRIN)," IMF Working Papers 2018/014, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Mr. Martin Cihak, 2007. "Introduction to Applied Stress Testing," IMF Working Papers 2007/059, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Mr. Mark Swinburne & Stéphanie Marie Stolz & Ms. Marina Moretti, 2008. "Stress Testing at the IMF," IMF Working Papers 2008/206, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Kabundi, Alain & De Simone, Francisco Nadal, 2020. "Monetary policy and systemic risk-taking in the euro area banking sector," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 736-758.
    9. Petr Jakubik & Eyup Kadioglu, 2022. "Factors affecting bank loan quality: a panel analysis of emerging markets," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 437-458, July.
    10. repec:kap:iaecre:v:17:y:2011:i:3:p:347-363 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Aleš Melecký & Martin Melecký & Monika Šulganová, 2015. "Úvěry v selhání a makroekonomika: modelování systémového kreditního rizika v České republice [Non-Performing Loans and The Macroeconomy: Modeling the Systemic Credit Risk in the Czech Republic]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(8), pages 921-947.
    12. Mr. Dimitri G Demekas, 2015. "Designing Effective Macroprudential Stress Tests: Progress So Far and the Way Forward," IMF Working Papers 2015/146, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Xisong Jin & Francisco Nadal De Simone, 2017. "Systemic Financial Sector and Sovereign Risks," BCL working papers 109, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    14. Avignone, Giuseppe & Altunbas, Yener & Polizzi, Salvatore & Reghezza, Alessio, 2021. "Centralised or decentralised banking supervision? Evidence from European banks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    15. Guerra, Solange Maria & Silva, Thiago Christiano & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda & de Souza Penaloza, Rodrigo Andrés & de Castro Miranda, Rodrigo César, 2016. "Systemic risk measures," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 442(C), pages 329-342.
    16. Jin, Xisong & Nadal De Simone, Francisco, 2020. "Monetary policy and systemic risk-taking in the Euro area investment fund industry: A structural factor-augmented vector autoregression analysis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    17. International Monetary Fund, 2014. "Switzerland: Technical Note-Systemic Risk and Contagion Analysis," IMF Staff Country Reports 2014/268, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Dimitrios Bisias & Mark Flood & Andrew W. Lo & Stavros Valavanis, 2012. "A Survey of Systemic Risk Analytics," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 255-296, October.
    19. International Monetary Fund, 2017. "Luxembourg: Financial Sector Assessment Program: Technical Note-Risk Analysis," IMF Staff Country Reports 2017/261, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Saidane, Dhafer & Sène, Babacar & Désiré Kanga, Kouamé, 2021. "Pan-African banks, banking interconnectivity: A new systemic risk measure in the WAEMU," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    21. Festic, Mejra & Kavkler, Alenka & Repina, Sebastijan, 2011. "The macroeconomic sources of systemic risk in the banking sectors of five new EU member states," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 310-322, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial Statement restructuring; Nonlinear Estimation; Threshold value;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • L2 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mbr:jmonec:v:10:y:2015:i:3:p:123-149. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: M. E. (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/mbcbiir.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.