[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cop/wpaper/g-212.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

H1N1 influenza in Australia and its macroeconomic effects

Author

Listed:
  • George Verikios
  • James McCaw
  • Jodie McVernon
  • Anthony Harris
Abstract
Early 2009 saw the emergence of an H1N1 influenza epidemic in North America that spread to eventually become a global pandemic. Previous work has suggested that pandemics can have large macroeconomic effects on highly affected regions; here we estimate what those effects might be for Australia. Our analysis applies the MONASH-Health model: a quarterly computable general equilibrium model of the Australian economy. We simulate the effects of two H1N1 epidemics; the relatively mild 2009 outbreak and also a more severe episode. The analysis supports the assertion that an H1N1 epidemic could have significant short-run macroeconomic effects.

Suggested Citation

  • George Verikios & James McCaw & Jodie McVernon & Anthony Harris, 2010. "H1N1 influenza in Australia and its macroeconomic effects," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-212, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-212
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.copsmodels.com/ftp/workpapr/g-212.pdf
    File Function: Initial version, 2010-12
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.copsmodels.com/elecpapr/g-212.htm
    File Function: Local abstract: may link to additional material.
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jong-Wha Lee & Warwick J. McKibbin, 2004. "Globalization and Disease: The Case of SARS," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 3(1), pages 113-131.
    2. Keogh-Brown, Marcus Richard & Smith, Richard David, 2008. "The economic impact of SARS: How does the reality match the predictions?," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 110-120, October.
    3. Marcus R. Keogh‐Brown & Simon Wren‐Lewis & W. John Edmunds & Philippe Beutels & Richard D. Smith, 2010. "The possible macroeconomic impact on the UK of an influenza pandemic," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(11), pages 1345-1360, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nipawan Thirawat & Pathomdanai Ponjan, 2014. "Thailand?s Flood Management Policy: Issues, Developments and Implications for the Thai Tourism Industry," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences 0301173, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    2. George Verikios & James McCaw & Jodie McVernon & Anthony Harris, 2012. "H1N1 influenza and the Australian macroeconomy," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 22-51.
    3. Fynnwin Prager & Dan Wei & Adam Rose, 2017. "Total Economic Consequences of an Influenza Outbreak in the United States," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(1), pages 4-19, January.
    4. Ling Jin & Jun Hyeok Choi & Saerona Kim & Kwanghee Cho, 2022. "Slack Resources, Corporate Performance, and COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(21), pages 1-21, November.
    5. Kabajulizi, Judith & Boysen, Ole, 2021. "The macroeconomic implications of COVID-19 pandemic and associated policies: An economy-wide analysis of Uganda," Conference papers 333310, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    6. Li, Chunding & Lin, Xin, 2021. "COVID-19 and trade: Simulated asymmetric loss," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    7. Liu, Yawen & Cui, Qi & Liu, Yu & Zhang, Jinzhu & Zhou, Meifang & Ali, Tariq & Yang, Lingyu & Feng, Kuishuang & Hubacek, Klaus & Li, Xinbei, 2021. "Countermeasures against economic crisis from COVID-19 pandemic in China: An analysis of effectiveness and trade-offs," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 482-495.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. George Verikios & Maura Sullivan & Pane Stojanovski & James Giesecke & Gordon Woo, 2016. "Assessing Regional Risks From Pandemic Influenza: A Scenario Analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(8), pages 1225-1255, August.
    2. Tiberiu Cristian Avrămescu, 2020. "Assessments on the Effects of the Coronavirus Pandemic on the Economies of the Central and South-East European Union Countries," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(1), pages 105-112, August.
    3. Verikios, George, 2017. "The Importance of Periodicity in Modelling Infectious Disease Outbreaks," Conference papers 332907, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    4. Smith, Richard D. & Keogh-Brown, Marcus R. & Barnett, Tony, 2011. "Estimating the economic impact of pandemic influenza: An application of the computable general equilibrium model to the UK," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 235-244, July.
    5. Fang, Guanfu & Feng, Jin, 2021. "Is the 2003 SARS epidemic over? Long-term effects of epidemic exposure on mortality among older adults," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    6. Verikios, George & Sullivan, Maura & Stojanovski, Pane & Giesecke, James & Woo, Gordon, 2011. "The Global Economic Effects of Pandemic Influenza," Conference papers 332033, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    7. Yothin Jinjarak & Ilan Noy & Quy Ta, 2022. "Pandemics and Economic Growth: Evidence from the 1968 H3N2 Influenza," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 73-93, March.
    8. Marcus R. Keogh‐Brown & Simon Wren‐Lewis & W. John Edmunds & Philippe Beutels & Richard D. Smith, 2010. "The possible macroeconomic impact on the UK of an influenza pandemic," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(11), pages 1345-1360, November.
    9. Ya-Chih Yang & Wu-Po Liu & Kung-Hong Shih, 2023. "The COVID-19 pandemic and firm value: the mediating effect of FinTech applications," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 329-344, January.
    10. Doran, Áine & Colvin, Christopher L. & McLaughlin, Eoin, 2024. "What can we learn from historical pandemics? A systematic review of the literature," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 342(C).
    11. Konstantinos Gkillas & Christoforos Konstantatos & Costas Siriopoulos, 2021. "Uncertainty Due to Infectious Diseases and Stock–Bond Correlation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-18, April.
    12. Angeles Sánchez & Eduardo Jiménez-Fernández, 2023. "European Union Cohesion Policy: Socio-Economic Vulnerability of the Regions and the COVID-19 Shock," Applied Research in Quality of Life, Springer;International Society for Quality-of-Life Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 195-228, February.
    13. Katz, Raúl & Jung, Juan & Callorda, Fernando, 2020. "Can digitization mitigate the economic damage of a pandemic? Evidence from SARS," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(10).
    14. Haoyu Wang & Yishan Zhang & Yingying Qin & Chao Chen & Beason Richard, 2022. "The Economic Impact of the SARS Epidemic with Related Interventions in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(20), pages 1-17, October.
    15. Eddy Bekkers & Robert B. Koopman, 2022. "Simulating the trade effects of the COVID‐19 pandemic: Scenario analysis based on quantitative trade modelling," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 445-467, February.
    16. Deliana Kostova & Cynthia H. Cassell & John T. Redd & Desmond E. Williams & Tushar Singh & Lise D. Martel & Rebecca E. Bunnell, 2019. "Long‐distance effects of epidemics: Assessing the link between the 2014 West Africa Ebola outbreak and U.S. exports and employment," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(11), pages 1248-1261, November.
    17. Rui Wang & Sheng Ma & Xinxin Xu & Pan Song, 2021. "Heterogeneous Shareholders’ Participation, COVID-19 Impact, and Innovation Decisions of State-Owned Firms: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-22, April.
    18. Rachel Glennerster & Christopher M. Snyder & Brandon Joel Tan, 2023. "Calculating the Costs and Benefits of Advance Preparations for Future Pandemics," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(3), pages 611-648, September.
    19. Beniamino Callegari & Christophe Feder, 2022. "The long-term economic effects of pandemics: toward an evolutionary approach [Epidemics and trust: the case of the Spanish flu]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 31(3), pages 715-735.
    20. Beniamino Callegari & Christophe Feder, 2022. "A Literature Review of Pandemics and Development: the Long-Term Perspective," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 183-212, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    general equilibrium; H1N1 influenza; pandemics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-212. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Mark Horridge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cpmonau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.