[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/hlthec/v28y2019i11p1248-1261.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Long‐distance effects of epidemics: Assessing the link between the 2014 West Africa Ebola outbreak and U.S. exports and employment

Author

Listed:
  • Deliana Kostova
  • Cynthia H. Cassell
  • John T. Redd
  • Desmond E. Williams
  • Tushar Singh
  • Lise D. Martel
  • Rebecca E. Bunnell
Abstract
Although the economic consequences of epidemic outbreaks to affected areas are often well documented, little is known about how these might carry over into the economies of unaffected regions. In the absence of direct pathogen transmission, global trade is one mechanism through which geographically distant epidemics could reverberate to unaffected countries. This study explores the link between global public health events and U.S. economic outcomes by evaluating the role of the 2014 West Africa Ebola outbreak in U.S. exports and exports‐supported U.S. jobs, 2005–2016. Estimates were obtained using difference‐in‐differences models where sub‐Saharan Africa countries were assigned to treatment and comparison groups based on their Ebola transmission status, with controls for observed and unobserved time‐variant factors that may independently influence trends in trade. Multiple model specification checks were performed to ensure analytic robustness. The year of peak transmission, 2014, was estimated to result in $1.08 billion relative reduction in U.S. merchandise exports to Ebola‐affected countries, whereas estimated losses in exports‐supported U.S. jobs exceeded 1,200 in 2014 and 11,000 in 2015. These findings suggest that remote disruptions in health security might play a role in U.S. economic indicators, demonstrating the interconnectedness between global health and aspects of the global economy and informing the relevance of health security efforts.

Suggested Citation

  • Deliana Kostova & Cynthia H. Cassell & John T. Redd & Desmond E. Williams & Tushar Singh & Lise D. Martel & Rebecca E. Bunnell, 2019. "Long‐distance effects of epidemics: Assessing the link between the 2014 West Africa Ebola outbreak and U.S. exports and employment," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(11), pages 1248-1261, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:hlthec:v:28:y:2019:i:11:p:1248-1261
    DOI: 10.1002/hec.3938
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/hec.3938
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/hec.3938?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jong-Wha Lee & Warwick J. McKibbin, 2004. "Globalization and Disease: The Case of SARS," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 3(1), pages 113-131.
    2. P. Beutels & W. J. Edmunds & R. D. Smith, 2008. "Partially wrong? Partial equilibrium and the economic analysis of public health emergencies of international concern," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(11), pages 1317-1322.
    3. George Verikios & James McCaw & Jodie McVernon & Anthony Harris, 2012. "H1N1 influenza and the Australian macroeconomy," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 22-51.
    4. David E. Bloom & David Canning, 2006. "Epidemics and Economics," PGDA Working Papers 0906, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    5. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Sevilla, Jaypee, 2004. "The Effect of Health on Economic Growth: A Production Function Approach," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 1-13, January.
    6. George Verikios & Maura Sullivan & Pane Stojanovski & James Giesecke & Gordon Woo, 2011. "The Global Economic Effects of Pandemic Influenza," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-224, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    7. Robert J. Barro, 2013. "Health and Economic Growth," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(2), pages 329-366, November.
    8. Bloom, David E. & Mahal, Ajay S., 1997. "Does the AIDS epidemic threaten economic growth?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 105-124, March.
    9. Marcus Keogh-Brown & Richard Smith & John Edmunds & Philippe Beutels, 2010. "The macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza: estimates from models of the United Kingdom, France, Belgium and The Netherlands," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 11(6), pages 543-554, December.
    10. Keogh-Brown, Marcus Richard & Smith, Richard David, 2008. "The economic impact of SARS: How does the reality match the predictions?," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 110-120, October.
    11. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson, 2007. "Disease and Development: The Effect of Life Expectancy on Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(6), pages 925-985, December.
    12. P. Beutels & W. J. Edmunds & R. D. Smith, 2008. "Partially wrong? Partial equilibrium and the economic analysis of public health emergencies of international concern," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(11), pages 1317-1322, November.
    13. Ehrlich, Isaac & Lui, Francis T, 1991. "Intergenerational Trade, Longevity, and Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(5), pages 1029-1059, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Matthias Klumpp & Dominic Loske & Silvio Bicciato, 2022. "COVID-19 health policy evaluation: integrating health and economic perspectives with a data envelopment analysis approach," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 23(8), pages 1263-1285, November.
    2. Ilan Noy & Tomáš Uher, 2022. "Economic consequences of pre-COVID-19 epidemics: a literature review," Chapters, in: Mark Skidmore (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Disasters, chapter 7, pages 117-133, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Xiaolan Fu, . "Digital transformation of global value chains and sustainable post-pandemic recovery," UNCTAD Transnational Corporations Journal, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    4. Boldrini, Michela & Conzo, Pierluigi & Fiore, Simona & Zotti, Roberto, 2023. "Blaming migrants doesn’t pay: the political effects of the Ebola epidemic in Italy," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 202320, University of Turin.
    5. Andrew Adewale Alola & Uju Violet Alola & Samuel Asumadu Sarkodie, 2021. "The nCOVID-19 and financial stress in the USA: health is wealth," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(6), pages 9367-9378, June.
    6. Deliana Kostova & Walter Ochieng & Rajeev Cherukupalli & John T Redd, 2020. "U.S. trade indicators and epidemics: Lessons from the 2003 SARS outbreak," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(4), pages 2610-2618.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Verikios, George, 2017. "The Importance of Periodicity in Modelling Infectious Disease Outbreaks," Conference papers 332907, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. George Verikios & Maura Sullivan & Pane Stojanovski & James Giesecke & Gordon Woo, 2016. "Assessing Regional Risks From Pandemic Influenza: A Scenario Analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(8), pages 1225-1255, August.
    3. Verikios, George & Sullivan, Maura & Stojanovski, Pane & Giesecke, James & Woo, Gordon, 2011. "The Global Economic Effects of Pandemic Influenza," Conference papers 332033, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    4. David E. Bloom & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2022. "Modern Infectious Diseases: Macroeconomic Impacts and Policy Responses," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 85-131, March.
    5. Belgi Turan, 2020. "Life expectancy and economic development: Evidence from microdata," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(3), pages 949-972, August.
    6. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & Lábaj, Martin & Pružinský, Patrik, 2014. "Prospective ageing and economic growth in Europe," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 3(C), pages 50-57.
    7. Cozzi, Guido & Galli, Silvia, 2022. "Covid-19 Vaccines, Innovation, and Intellectual Property Rights," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1095, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    8. Fraser Summerfield & Livio Di Matteo, 2021. "Influenza Pandemics and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Recent Economic History," Working Papers 210002, Canadian Centre for Health Economics.
    9. Peter Lorentzen & John McMillan & Romain Wacziarg, 2008. "Death and development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 81-124, June.
    10. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Kotschy, Rainer & Prettner, Klaus & Schünemann, Johannes, 2024. "Health and economic growth: Reconciling the micro and macro evidence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    11. Chinhui Juhn & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Belgi Turan, 2013. "HIV and fertility in Africa: first evidence from population-based surveys," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(3), pages 835-853, July.
    12. Neofytidou, Aliona & Fountas, Stilianos, 2020. "The impact of health on GDP: A panel data investigation," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
    13. Nishimura, Yukihiro & Pestieau, Pierre & Ponthiere, Gregory, 2018. "Education choices, longevity and optimal policy in a Ben-Porath economy," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 65-81.
    14. Pablo Daniel Monterubbianesi & Martín Grandes & Carlos Dabús, 2017. "New Evidence of the Health Status and Economic Growth Relationship," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 64(4), pages 439-459, September.
    15. Doran, Áine & Colvin, Christopher L. & McLaughlin, Eoin, 2024. "What can we learn from historical pandemics? A systematic review of the literature," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 342(C).
    16. Mevlude Akbulut-Yuksel & Belgi Turan, 2013. "Left behind: intergenerational transmission of human capital in the midst of HIV/AIDS," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(4), pages 1523-1547, October.
    17. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, 2012. "AIDS, “reversal” of the demographic transition and economic development: evidence from Africa," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 871-897, July.
    18. Ọláyínká Oyèkọ́lá, 2023. "Democracy Does Improve Health," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 105-132, February.
    19. Yuhan Cheng & Dongqi Cui & Zixuan Li, 2020. "COVID-19 Virus Pneumonia’s Economic Effect in Different Industries: A Case Study in China," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 10(5), pages 1-7.
    20. Mercedes Gumbau Albert, 2021. "The impact of health status and human capital formation on regional performance: Empirical evidence," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(1), pages 123-139, February.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:hlthec:v:28:y:2019:i:11:p:1248-1261. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/5749 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.