[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/col/000094/005127.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Budget Deficit, Money Growth and Inflation: Evidence from the Colombian Case

Author

Listed:
  • Ignacio Lozano
Abstract
Evidence of the causal long-term relationship between budget deficit, money growth and inflation in Colombia is analyzed in this paper, considering the standard (M1), the narrowest (M0-Base) and the broadest (M3) definitions of money supply. Using a vector error correction (VEC) model with quarterly data over the last 25 years, the study found a close relationship between inflation and money growth on the one hand, and between money growth and fiscal deficit, on the other. The size of the long-term parameters looks acceptable, particularly when compared to what is seen in other countries, using analogous or different techniques. The conclusion, supported by several statistical tests, is that the Sargent and Wallace hypothesis would be the most appropriate approach to understanding the dynamics of these variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Ignacio Lozano, 2008. "Budget Deficit, Money Growth and Inflation: Evidence from the Colombian Case," Borradores de Economia 5127, Banco de la Republica.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:005127
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.banrep.gov.co/docum/ftp/borra537.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sikken, Bernd Jan & de Haan, Jakob, 1998. "Budget Deficits, Monetization, and Central-Bank Independence in Developing Countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(3), pages 493-511, July.
    2. Martha Misas Arango & Enrique López Enciso & Pablo Querubín Borrero, 2002. "La inflación en Colombia: una aproximación desde las redes neuronales," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 20(41-42), pages 143-214, June.
    3. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "What caused the Asian currency and financial crisis?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 305-373, October.
    4. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2007. "Macroeconomic Modeling for Monetary Policy Evaluation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(4), pages 25-46, Fall.
    5. Stefan Gerlach, 2004. "The two pillars of the European Central Bank [‘The demand for M3 in the euro area’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 19(40), pages 390-439.
    6. Woodford, Michael, 1995. "Price-level determinacy without control of a monetary aggregate," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 1-46, December.
    7. Martha Misas A. & Carlos Esteban Posada P & Diego Mauricio Vásquez E, 2003. "¿Está determinado el nivel de precios por las expectativas de dinero y producto en Colombia?," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 21(43), pages 8-31, June.
    8. Joines, Douglas H., 1985. "Deficits and money growth in the United States 1872-1983," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 329-351, November.
    9. Nelson, Edward, 2003. "The future of monetary aggregates in monetary policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1029-1059, July.
    10. Ayca Tekin-Koru & Erdal Ozmen, 2003. "Budget deficits, money growth and inflation: the Turkish evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(5), pages 591-596.
    11. Karras, Georgios, 1994. "Macroeconomic effects of budget deficits: further international evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 190-210, April.
    12. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    13. Mr. Jean-Claude Nachega, 2005. "Fiscal Dominance and Inflation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo," IMF Working Papers 2005/221, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Metin, Kivilcim, 1998. "The Relationship between Inflation and the Budget Deficit in Turkey," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 412-422, October.
    15. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1984. "Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Brian Griffiths & Geoffrey E. Wood (ed.), Monetarism in the United Kingdom, pages 15-41, Palgrave Macmillan.
    16. Carlo A. Favero & Franco Spinelli, 1999. "Deficits, Money Growth and Inflation in Italy: 1875–1994," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 28(1), pages 43-71, February.
    17. Ignacio Lozano & Magaly Herrera, 2008. "Dominancia Fiscal versus Dominancia Monetaria: Evidencia para Colombia, 1990-2007," Borradores de Economia 4513, Banco de la Republica.
    18. Fatih Özatay, 2000. "The 1994 currency crisis in Turkey," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 327-352.
    19. Williamson, John, 1993. "Democracy and the "Washington consensus"," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 21(8), pages 1329-1336, August.
    20. Jorge García García & Lía Guterman Bromberg, 1988. "Medición del déficit del sector público colombiano y su financiación: 1950-1986," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 7(14), pages 115-133, December.
    21. Munir A. Jalil & Luis Fernando Melo, 2000. "Una Relación no Líneal entre Inflación y los Medios de Pago," Borradores de Economia 145, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    22. Ignacio Lozano, 2001. "Colombia's Public Finance in the 1990s: A Decade of Reforms, Fiscal Imbalance and Debt," Borradores de Economia 174, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    23. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I., 1985. "Money, deficits, and inflation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 147-195, January.
    24. Barnhart, Scott W. & Darrat, Ali F., 1988. "Budget deficits, money growth and causality: Further OECD evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 231-242, June.
    25. Ruccio, David F., 1991. "When failure becomes success: Class and the debate over stabilization and adjustment," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 19(10), pages 1315-1334, October.
    26. Protopapadakis, Aris A. & Siegel, Jeremy J., 1987. "Are money growth and inflation related to government deficits? evidence from ten industrialized economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 31-48, March.
    27. Roberto Junguito & Hernán Rincón, 2004. "La Política Fiscal en el Siglo XX en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 318, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    28. Sowa, Nii Kwaku, 1994. "Fiscal deficits, output growth and inflation targets in Ghana," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 22(8), pages 1105-1117, August.
    29. Ghartey, Edward E., 2001. "Macroeconomic instability and inflationary financing in Ghana," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 415-433, August.
    30. De Haan, Jakob & Zelhorst, Dick, 1990. "The impact of government deficits on money growth in developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 455-469, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mehmet BÖLÜKBAÞ, 2016. "The Effects of Economic Policies in Turkey: An Application for the Period After 2000," Journal of Social and Administrative Sciences, KSP Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 315-322, December.
    2. M. R. Anantha Ramu & K. Gayithri, 2017. "Fiscal deficit and inflation linkages in India: tracking the transmission channels," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 19(1), pages 1-24, April.
    3. Nelson Manolo Chávez Munoz & Marcos Vera Leyton, 2014. "Evaluación de los efectos del financiamiento del déficit fiscal en la inflación. Los casos de Chile, México y Colombia," Revista Equidad y Desarrollo, Universidad de la Salle, May.
    4. Kashif Ali & Mahmood Khalid, 2019. "Sources to Finance Fiscal Deficit and Their Impact on Inflation: A Case Study of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 58(1), pages 27-43.
    5. Cuma BOZKURT, 2014. "Money, Inflation and Growth Relationship: The Turkish Case," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(2), pages 309-322.
    6. Ghulam Rasool Madni, 2014. "Taxation, Fiscal Deficit and Inflation in Pakistan," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 17(53), pages 41-60, September.
    7. Osman Sayid Hassan Musse & Abdelghani Echchabi & Hassanuddeen Abdul Aziz, 2015. "Fractional Reserve Banking and Price Stability: Evidence from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries," American Journal of Economics and Business Administration, Science Publications, vol. 7(3), pages 101-105, August.
    8. Ismail O. Fasanya & Ayinke Fajobi & Abiodun Adetokunbo, 2021. "Are Fiscal Deficits Inflationary In Nigeria? New Evidence From Bounds Testing To Cointegration With Structural Breaks," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 66(228), pages 123-148, January –.
    9. Tarek Bouazizi & Zouhaier Hadhek & Mongi Lassoued, 2020. "General Government Balance Shocks and Their Impact on Some Tunisian Macroeconomics Variables: Evidence from a VAR Model," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(6), pages 69-83.
    10. Amankwah, Ernest & Atta Sarfo, Prince, 2019. "The causal linkages among money growth, inflaion and interest rates in Ghana," MPRA Paper 96485, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jude Okechukwu Chukwu, 2013. "Budget Deficits, Money Growth and Price Level in Nigeria," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 25(4), pages 468-477, December.
    2. Lin, Hsin-Yi & Chu, Hao-Pang, 2013. "Are fiscal deficits inflationary?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 214-233.
    3. Maissa Elmrabet & Boulila Ghazi, 2018. "Causality deficit-inflation : wavelet transform," Working Papers hal-01941464, HAL.
    4. Tan, Eu Chye, 2006. "Fiscal Deficits, Inflation and Economic Growth in a Successful Open Developing Economy," Review of Applied Economics, Lincoln University, Department of Financial and Business Systems, vol. 2(1), pages 1-11.
    5. Mr. Jean-Claude Nachega, 2005. "Fiscal Dominance and Inflation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo," IMF Working Papers 2005/221, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Yaya Keho, 2016. "Budget deficits, money supply and price level in West Africa," Journal of Economic and Financial Studies (JEFS), LAR Center Press, vol. 4(5), pages 1-8, October.
    7. Bilal Raza & Khurram S Mughal, 2022. "Fiscal Determinants of Inflation in Pakistan," SBP Working Paper Series 108, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    8. Clement Olalekan Olaniyi, 2020. "Application of Bootstrap Simulation and Asymmetric Causal Approach to Fiscal Deficit-Inflation Nexus," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 12(2), pages 123-140, May.
    9. Josh Ryan-Collins, 2015. "Is Monetary Financing Inflationary? A Case Study of the Canadian Economy, 1935-75," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_848, Levy Economics Institute.
    10. Ahmad, Ahmad Hassan & Aworinde, Olalekan B., 2019. "Are fiscal deficits inflationary in African countries? A new evidence from an asymmetric cointegration analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    11. Teshale D. BEDADA & Wondaferahu M. DEMISSIE & Endeg T. WOLDE, 2020. "Determinants of Inflationary Experience in Ethiopia," Journal of Economics and Financial Analysis, Tripal Publishing House, vol. 4(1), pages 15-54.
    12. Kashif Ali & Mahmood Khalid, 2019. "Sources to Finance Fiscal Deficit and Their Impact on Inflation: A Case Study of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 58(1), pages 27-43.
    13. Afolabi, Joseph Olarewaju & Atolagbe, Oluwafemi, 2018. "Empirical analysis of fiscal dominance and the conduct of monetary policy in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 88786, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Ghura, Dhaneshwar, 1995. "Effects of macroeconomic policies on income growth, inflation, and output growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 367-395, August.
    15. Catao, Luis A.V. & Terrones, Marco E., 2005. "Fiscal deficits and inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 529-554, April.
    16. Jalil, Abdul & Tariq, Rabbia & Bibi, Nazia, 2014. "Fiscal deficit and inflation: New evidences from Pakistan using a bounds testing approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 120-126.
    17. repec:pra:mprapa:61939 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Abbas Alavirad & Sanhita Athawale, 2005. "The impact of the budget deficit on inflation in the Islamic Republic of Iran," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 29(1), pages 37-49, March.
    19. Sergey Pekarski, 2017. "Tight Money and the Sustainability of Public Debt," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(1), pages 191-223, February.
    20. Brian Francis & Troy Lorde & Kimberly Waithe, 2009. "Balance of Payments Adjustment in Barbados," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 97-118, January-J.
    21. Ifeanyi Onwuka, 2022. "Budget Deficit, Inflation and Economic Growth in Nigeria: An Empirical Analysis," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 8(1), pages 1-14, 03-2022.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Deficit; Money supply; Inflation; Hypothesis testing.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000094:005127. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Clorith Angelica Bahos Olivera (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.