[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_10513.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Impact of the War on Human Capital and Productivity in Ukraine

Author

Listed:
  • Balázs Égert
  • Christine de la Maisonneuve
  • Balazs Egert
Abstract
In addition to the humanitarian suffering and huge immediate economic costs, the war in Ukraine will have long-term consequences, among which are losses in human capital that will impact aggregate productivity for many years. Exploiting a new stock measure of human capital combining the quality and quantity of education and adult skills, this paper suggests that losses in long-run aggregate productivity operating through the human capital channel could be at about 7% if the war lasts two years. These adverse effects come from school closure and the resulting decline in student learning outcomes and losses in workers’ skills, which, without remedial policy action, could persist for decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Balázs Égert & Christine de la Maisonneuve & Balazs Egert, 2023. "The Impact of the War on Human Capital and Productivity in Ukraine," CESifo Working Paper Series 10513, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10513
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp10513.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Balázs Égert, 2016. "Regulation, Institutions, and Productivity: New Macroeconomic Evidence from OECD Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 109-113, May.
    2. David Card & Jochen Kluve & Andrea Weber, 2018. "What Works? A Meta Analysis of Recent Active Labor Market Program Evaluations," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 894-931.
    3. Ortego-Marti, Victor, 2017. "Differences in skill loss during unemployment across industries and occupations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 31-33.
    4. Balazs Egert & Christine de la Maisonneuve & David Turner, 2022. "A New Macroeconomic Measure of Human Capital Exploiting PISA and PIAAC: Linking Education Policies to Productivity," CESifo Working Paper Series 9728, CESifo.
    5. Hendrik Jürges & Luca Stella & Sameh Hallaq & Alexandra Schwarz, 2022. "Cohort at risk: long-term consequences of conflict for child school achievement," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(1), pages 1-43, January.
    6. Joana Monteiro & Rudi Rocha, 2017. "Drug Battles and School Achievement: Evidence from Rio de Janeiro's Favelas," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(2), pages 213-228, May.
    7. Tilman Brück & Michele Di Maio & Sami H Miaari, 2019. "Learning The Hard Way: The Effect of Violent Conflict on Student Academic Achievement," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 17(5), pages 1502-1537.
    8. Jarillo, Brenda & Magaloni, Beatriz & Franco, Edgar & Robles, Gustavo, 2016. "How the Mexican drug war affects kids and schools? Evidence on effects and mechanisms," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 135-146.
    9. Christopher A. Pissarides, 1992. "Loss of Skill During Unemployment and the Persistence of Employment Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(4), pages 1371-1391.
    10. Claudia Koehler & Nektaria Palaiologou & Ottavia Brussino, 2022. "Holistic refugee and newcomer education in Europe: Mapping, upscaling and institutionalising promising practices from Germany, Greece and the Netherlands," OECD Education Working Papers 264, OECD Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michaelsen, Maren M. & Salardi, Paola, 2020. "Violence, psychological stress and educational performance during the “war on drugs” in Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    2. Miaari, Sami H. & Lee, Ines, 2020. "Obstacles on the Road to School: The Impacts of Mobility Restrictions on Educational Performance," IZA Discussion Papers 13563, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Lekfuangfu, Warn N., 2022. "Mortality risk, perception, and human capital investments: The legacy of landmines in Cambodia," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    4. Hector Galindo-Silva & Guy Tchuente, 2023. "Armed Conflict and Early Human Capital Accumulation: Evidence from Cameroon's Anglophone Conflict," Papers 2306.13070, arXiv.org.
    5. Mounu Prem & Juan F. Vargas & Olga Namen, 2023. "The Human Capital Peace Dividend," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 58(3), pages 962-1002.
    6. Padilla-Romo, María & Peluffo, Cecilia, 2023. "Violence-induced migration and peer effects in academic performance," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    7. Theodoropoulos, Nikolaos & Voucharas, Georgios, 2023. "Firm Closures and Labor Market Policies in Europe: Evidence from Retrospective Longitudinal Data," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1288, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    8. Jackson, Paul & Ortego-Marti, Victor, 2024. "Skill loss during unemployment and the scarring effects of the COVID-19 pandemic," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    9. Seth Gershenson & Erdal Tekin, 2018. "The Effect of Community Traumatic Events on Student Achievement: Evidence from the Beltway Sniper Attacks," Education Finance and Policy, MIT Press, vol. 13(4), pages 513-544, Fall.
    10. Marco Alfano & Joseph‐Simon Görlach, 2024. "Terrorism and education: Evidence from instrumental variables estimators," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 906-925, August.
    11. Hernando Grueso, 2024. "Heterogeneous effects of violence on student achievement: Evidence from Colombia," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(2), pages 1536-1569, March.
    12. Martin Foureaux Koppensteiner & Lívia Menezes, 2021. "Violence and Human Capital Investments," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(3), pages 787-823.
    13. Duque, Valentina, 2019. "Violence and Children’s Education: Evidence from Administrative Data," Working Papers 2019-16, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    14. Haugan, Gregory L. & Santos, Rafael, 2024. "Beheading a Hydra: Kingpin Extradition, Homicides, Education Outcomes, and the End of Medellin’s Pax Mafiosa," Documentos CEDE 21073, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    15. Miaari, S. & Lee, I, 2020. "Obstacles on the Road to School: The Impacts of Mobility Restrictions on Educational Performance," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2074, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    16. Pohlan, Laura, 2019. "Unemployment and social exclusion," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 273-299.
    17. Sameh Hallaq, 2020. "The Palestinian Labor Market over the Last Three Decades," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_976, Levy Economics Institute.
    18. Heidi Kaila & Larissa Nawo & Hyuk Harry Son, 2021. "Unpacking the Links between Conflict and Child Welfare: Evidence from a Foreign Insurgency," HiCN Working Papers 353, Households in Conflict Network.
    19. Dominic Rohner, 2022. "Conflict, Civil Wars and Human Development," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 22.08, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    20. Aksoy, Cevat Giray & Khanna, Gaurav & Marino, Victoria & Tumen, Semih, 2024. "Hometown Conflict and Refugees' Integration Efforts," IZA Discussion Papers 16862, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    human capital; productivity; educational achievement; student test score; adult test score; Ukraine;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • I19 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Other
    • I20 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - General
    • I25 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Economic Development
    • I26 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Returns to Education
    • I28 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Government Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10513. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.