[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/col/000518/017353.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The human capital peace dividend

Author

Listed:
  • Olga Namen
  • Mounu Prem
  • Juan F. Vargas
Abstract
A large body of literature has documented negative effects of civil conflict on the educational outcomes of affected children across different countries and historical periods. The opposite is however not obvious. Because conflict can damage educational infrastructure, and violence reductions attract economic activity and thus increase the opportunity cost of schooling, it may take a long time for conflict-affected societies to offset the loss in human capital after violence is over. In this paper we study the effect of Colombia’s recent efforts to end the conflict with the FARC insurgency on short-term school dropout rates. Using a difference-in-differences identification strategy, we find that the permanent ceasefire declared by FARC during peace negotiations with the government induced a large differential reduction on school dropout rates in the areas most affected by FARC violence prior to the ceasefire, relative to other areas. We show that these results are mainly not driven by the recruitment of children during conflict. Rather, our evidence suggests that most the reduction in school dropout is incentivized by a decrease in the overall victimization in areas that experienced FARC violence. Moreover, the effect of the ceasefire on dropout rates is attenuated by the contemporaneous increase in coca growing in former FARC-affected regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Olga Namen & Mounu Prem & Juan F. Vargas, 2019. "The human capital peace dividend," Documentos de Trabajo 17353, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association (LACEA).
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000518:017353
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://vox.lacea.org/files/Working_Papers/lacea_wps_0030_namen_prem_vargas.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard K. Crump & V. Joseph Hotz & Guido W. Imbens & Oscar A. Mitnik, 2009. "Dealing with limited overlap in estimation of average treatment effects," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 96(1), pages 187-199.
    2. Karthik Muralidharan & Nishith Prakash, 2017. "Cycling to School: Increasing Secondary School Enrollment for Girls in India," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 321-350, July.
    3. Alexandre Belloni & Victor Chernozhukov & Christian Hansen, 2014. "High-Dimensional Methods and Inference on Structural and Treatment Effects," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 29-50, Spring.
    4. Christine Valente, 2014. "Education and Civil Conflict in Nepal," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 28(2), pages 354-383.
    5. Gary Solon & Steven J. Haider & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2015. "What Are We Weighting For?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(2), pages 301-316.
    6. Mevlude Akbulut-Yuksel, 2014. "Children of War: The Long-Run Effects of Large-Scale Physical Destruction and Warfare on Children," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 49(3), pages 634-662.
    7. Flavio Cunha & James J. Heckman & Susanne M. Schennach, 2010. "Estimating the Technology of Cognitive and Noncognitive Skill Formation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(3), pages 883-931, May.
    8. Joshua D. Angrist & Adriana D. Kugler, 2008. "Rural Windfall or a New Resource Curse? Coca, Income, and Civil Conflict in Colombia," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 191-215, May.
    9. Gary S. Becker, 1974. "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach," NBER Chapters, in: Essays in the Economics of Crime and Punishment, pages 1-54, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. James Heckman & Flavio Cunha, 2007. "The Technology of Skill Formation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 31-47, May.
    11. Di Maio, Michele & Nandi, Tushar K., 2013. "The effect of the Israeli–Palestinian conflict on child labor and school attendance in the West Bank," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 107-116.
    12. Goldin, Claudia D. & Lewis, Frank D., 1975. "The Economic Cost of the American Civil War: Estimates and Implications," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(2), pages 299-326, June.
    13. Damon Jones & David Molitor & Julian Reif, 2019. "What do Workplace Wellness Programs do? Evidence from the Illinois Workplace Wellness Study," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(4), pages 1747-1791.
    14. Shemyakina, Olga, 2011. "The effect of armed conflict on accumulation of schooling: Results from Tajikistan," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 186-200, July.
    15. Douglas Almond & Janet Currie & Valentina Duque, 2018. "Childhood Circumstances and Adult Outcomes: Act II," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1360-1446, December.
    16. Bertoni, Eleonora & Di Maio, Michele & Molini, Vasco & Nisticò, Roberto, 2019. "Education is forbidden: The effect of the Boko Haram conflict on education in North-East Nigeria," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    17. Jacob A. Mincer, 1974. "Introduction to "Schooling, Experience, and Earnings"," NBER Chapters, in: Schooling, Experience, and Earnings, pages 1-4, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Jorge Restrepo & Michael Spagat & Juan Vargas, 2004. "The Dynamics of the Columbian Civil Conflict: A New Dataset," Homo Oeconomicus, Institute of SocioEconomics, vol. 21, pages 396-429.
    19. Tom Bundervoet & Philip Verwimp & Richard Akresh, 2009. "Health and Civil War in Rural Burundi," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 44(2).
    20. Angrist, Joshua D, 1990. "Lifetime Earnings and the Vietnam Era Draft Lottery: Evidence from Social Security Administrative Records," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 313-336, June.
    21. Daron Acemoglu & Camilo García-Jimeno & James A. Robinson, 2015. "State Capacity and Economic Development: A Network Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(8), pages 2364-2409, August.
    22. Anton Parlow, 2012. "Armed Conflict and Children�s Health � Exploring new directions: The case of Kashmir," HiCN Working Papers 119, Households in Conflict Network.
    23. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
    24. Joana Monteiro & Rudi Rocha, 2017. "Drug Battles and School Achievement: Evidence from Rio de Janeiro's Favelas," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(2), pages 213-228, May.
    25. Prem, Mounu & Saavedra, Santiago & Vargas, Juan F., 2020. "End-of-conflict deforestation: Evidence from Colombia’s peace agreement," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    26. Adriana Camacho, 2008. "Stress and Birth Weight: Evidence from Terrorist Attacks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 511-515, May.
    27. Andrea Ichino & Rudolf Winter-Ebmer, 2004. "The Long-Run Educational Cost of World War II," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 22(1), pages 57-86, January.
    28. Andrew L. Dabalen & Saumik Paul, 2014. "Estimating the Effects of Conflict on Education in Côte d'Ivoire," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(12), pages 1631-1646, December.
    29. Tilman Brück & Michele Di Maio & Sami H Miaari, 2019. "Learning The Hard Way: The Effect of Violent Conflict on Student Academic Achievement," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 17(5), pages 1502-1537.
    30. Patricia Justino & Marinella Leone & Paola Salardi, 2014. "Short- and Long-Term Impact of Violence on Education: The Case of Timor Leste," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 28(2), pages 320-353.
    31. repec:fth:prinin:251 is not listed on IDEAS
    32. Chamarbagwala, Rubiana & Morán, Hilcías E., 2011. "The human capital consequences of civil war: Evidence from Guatemala," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 41-61, January.
    33. Leopoldo Fergusson & Ana María Ibáñez & Juan Felipe Riaño, 2020. "Conflict, Educational Attainment, and Structural Transformation: La Violencia in Colombia," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(1), pages 335-371.
    34. Beber, Bernd & Blattman, Christopher, 2013. "The Logic of Child Soldiering and Coercion," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 67(1), pages 65-104, January.
    35. Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2004. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-In-Differences Estimates?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 249-275.
    36. Gianmarco León, 2012. "Civil Conflict and Human Capital Accumulation: The Long-term Effects of Political Violence in Perú," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 47(4), pages 991-1022.
    37. Jacob A. Mincer, 1974. "Schooling and Earnings," NBER Chapters, in: Schooling, Experience, and Earnings, pages 41-63, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    38. Jacob A. Mincer, 1974. "Schooling, Experience, and Earnings," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number minc74-1.
    39. Parlow, Anton, 2012. "Armed conflict and children's health - exploring new directions: The case of Kashmir," MPRA Paper 38033, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    40. Conley, T. G., 1999. "GMM estimation with cross sectional dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 1-45, September.
    41. Christopher Blattman & Jeannie Annan, 2010. "The Consequences of Child Soldiering," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 882-898, November.
    42. Diana Saltarelli & Kenneth D. Bush, 2000. "The Two Faces of Education in Ethnic Conflict: Towards a peacebuilding education for children," Papers innins00/7, Innocenti Insights.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mora, Claudio & Prem, Mounu & Rodriguez-Lesmes, Paul & Vargas, Juan F., 2024. "Health Workforce Reallocation in the Aftermath of Conflict: Evidence from Colombia," SocArXiv 2dwfu, Center for Open Science.
    2. Bernal, Carolina & Prem, Mounu & Vargas, Juan F. & Ortiz, Mónica, 2024. "Peaceful entry: Entrepreneurship dynamics during Colombia’s peace agreement," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    3. Nicolás de Roux & Luis Roberto Martínez, 2021. "Forgone Investment: Civil Conflict and Agricultural Credit in Colombia," Documentos CEDE 19236, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    4. Prem, M & Guerra, M. E. & Rodríguez, P & Vargas, J. F., 2020. "The Peace Baby Boom: Evidence from Colombia’s peace agreement with the FARC," Documentos de Trabajo 18430, Universidad del Rosario.
    5. Perilla, Sergio & Prem, Mounu & Purroy, Miguel E. & Vargas, Juan F., 2024. "How peace saves lives: Evidence from Colombia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    6. Hernando Grueso, 2024. "Heterogeneous effects of violence on student achievement: Evidence from Colombia," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(2), pages 1536-1569, March.
    7. Nicolás de Roux & Luis Martínez, 2021. "Inversión Perdida: Conflicto Civil y Crédito Agrícola en Colombia," Documentos CEDE 19622, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    8. Bharati, Tushar, 2022. "The long shadow of the Kargil War: The effect of early-life stress on education," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    9. Prem, M & Guerra, M. E. & Rodríguez, P & Vargas, J. F., 2020. "The Peace Baby Boom: Evidence from Colombia’s peace agreement with the FARC," Documentos de Trabajo 18430, Universidad del Rosario.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Justino, Patricia, 2016. "Supply and demand restrictions to education in conflict-affected countries: New research and future agendas," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 76-85.
    2. Dominic Rohner, 2022. "Conflict, Civil Wars and Human Development," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 22.08, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    3. Duque, Valentina, 2019. "Violence and Children’s Education: Evidence from Administrative Data," Working Papers 2019-16, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    4. Odozi, John Chiwuzulum & Oyelere, Ruth Uwaifo, 2019. "Conflict Exposure and Economic Welfare in Nigeria," GLO Discussion Paper Series 334, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    5. Richard Akresh & Sonia Bhalotra & Marinella Leone & Una Osili, 2023. "First- and Second-Generation Impacts of the Biafran War," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 58(2), pages 488-531.
    6. Michaelsen, Maren M. & Salardi, Paola, 2020. "Violence, psychological stress and educational performance during the “war on drugs” in Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    7. Hönig, Tillman, 2017. "The Impact of Peace: Evidence from Nigeria," MPRA Paper 83302, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Richard Akresh & Sonia Bhalotra & Marinella Leone & Una Osili, 2017. "Hunger Games: First and Second Generation Impacts of the Biafran War," HiCN Working Papers 254, Households in Conflict Network.
    9. Hendrik Jürges & Luca Stella & Sameh Hallaq & Alexandra Schwarz, 2022. "Cohort at risk: long-term consequences of conflict for child school achievement," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(1), pages 1-43, January.
    10. Bharati, Tushar, 2022. "The long shadow of the Kargil War: The effect of early-life stress on education," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    11. Yamada, Hiroyuki & Matsushima, Midori, 2020. "Impacts of long-lasting civil conflicts on education: Evidence from the 2014 Census of Myanmar," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    12. Satoshi Shimizutani & Eiji Yamada, 2021. "Long-term Consequences of Civil War in Tajikistan: Schooling and International Migration Outcomes," Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series 2021-014, Institute for Economics Studies, Keio University.
    13. Bertoni, Eleonora & Di Maio, Michele & Molini, Vasco & Nisticò, Roberto, 2019. "Education is forbidden: The effect of the Boko Haram conflict on education in North-East Nigeria," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    14. Richard Akresh, 2016. "Climate Change, Conflict, and Children," HiCN Working Papers 221, Households in Conflict Network.
    15. Philip Verwimp & Jan Van Bavel, 2014. "Schooling, Violent Conflict, and Gender in Burundi," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 28(2), pages 384-411.
    16. Perilla, Sergio & Prem, Mounu & Purroy, Miguel E. & Vargas, Juan F., 2024. "How peace saves lives: Evidence from Colombia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    17. Chiwuzulum Odozi, John & Uwaifo Oyelere, Ruth, 2019. "Violent Conflict Exposure in Nigeria and Economic Welfare," IZA Discussion Papers 12570, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Swee, Eik Leong, 2015. "On war intensity and schooling attainment: The case of Bosnia and Herzegovina," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 40(PA), pages 158-172.
    19. Vesal, Mohammad, 2017. "The Long Run Educational Impact of Iran-Iraq War," MPRA Paper 101014, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Havari, Enkelejda & Peracchi, Franco, 2017. "Growing up in wartime: Evidence from the era of two world wars," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 9-32.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Education; School dropout; Peace process; Armed conflict;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000518:017353. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: LACEA (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/laceaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.