[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cdl/bineur/qt2xz37086.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Risk Sharing, Financial integration, and "Mundell II" in the Enlarged European Union

Author

Listed:
  • Boewer Böwer, Uwe
Abstract
While empirical research in the tradition of the classical optimum currency area theory, inspired by Mundell (1961), has stressed the costs of a common currency ("Mundell I"), the later and less well-known contribution of Mundell (1973) high- lights the benefits that arise from the risk-sharing opportunities in a financially- integrated currency union. This paper assesses the degrees of risk sharing and financial integration in the enlarged EU in the context of Mundell II. We find limited but increasing comovement of consumption, output and real interest rates between the new member states (NMS) and the euro area. In comparison, we find substantially higher figures for the "old" EU countries which give rise to the hope that the NMS will develop in a similar fashion. Also, we observe that output comovement increases faster than consumption comovement which may lend support to Imbs (2006) who argues that the consumption correlation puzzle may not be rooted in a lack of risk sharing but rather in the even stronger effect that financial integration experts on output comovement in comparison to consumption comovement. In essence, the benefits for the NMS to join the euro area rather earlier than later may have been underestimated.

Suggested Citation

  • Boewer Böwer, Uwe, 2006. "Risk Sharing, Financial integration, and "Mundell II" in the Enlarged European Union," Institute of European Studies, Working Paper Series qt2xz37086, Institute of European Studies, UC Berkeley.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:bineur:qt2xz37086
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/2xz37086.pdf;origin=repeccitec
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mike Artis & Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2004. "The European business cycle," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(1), pages 1-44, January.
    2. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, April.
    3. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2001. "The external wealth of nations: measures of foreign assets and liabilities for industrial and developing countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 263-294, December.
    4. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2008. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 1-19, February.
    5. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1995. "Lag Order and Critical Values of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 277-280, July.
    6. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 369-380, October.
    7. Maurice Obstfeld & Alan M. Taylor, 2003. "Globalization and Capital Markets," NBER Chapters, in: Globalization in Historical Perspective, pages 121-188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    9. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 393-395, October.
    10. Driffill, John & Snell, Andrew, 2003. "What Moves OECD Real Interest Rates?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(3), pages 375-402, June.
    11. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2006. "Meta-analysis of the business cycle correlation between the euro area and the CEECs," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 518-537, September.
    12. Baele, Lieven & Ferrando, Annalisa & Hördahl, Peter & Krylova, Elizaveta & Monnet, Cyril, 2004. "Measuring financial integration in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 14, European Central Bank.
    13. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    14. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    15. Jonathan Rubin & Niels Thygesen, 1996. "Monetary Union and the Outsiders - A Cointegration/ Codependence Analysis of Business Cycles in Europe," Discussion Papers 96-08, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    16. Mongelli, Francesco Paolo, 2002. ""New" views on the optimum currency area theory: what is EMU telling us?," Working Paper Series 138, European Central Bank.
    17. Torres,Francisco & Giavazzi,Francesco (ed.), 1993. "Adjustment and Growth in the European Monetary Union," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521440196, September.
    18. Garcia, Rene & Perron, Pierre, 1996. "An Analysis of the Real Interest Rate under Regime Shifts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 111-125, February.
    19. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:5:p:1095-1112 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Lane, Philip & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, "undated". "External Wealth of Nations," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics extwealth, Boston College Department of Economics.
    21. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 339-412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-775, August.
    23. repec:bla:etrans:v:10:y:2002-07:i:2:p:343-364 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Masson,Paul R. & Taylor,Mark P. (ed.), 1993. "Policy Issues in the Operation of Currency Unions," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521434553, September.
    25. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Sorensen, Bent E. & Yosha, Oved, 2001. "Economic integration, industrial specialization, and the asymmetry of macroeconomic fluctuations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 107-137, October.
    26. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1.
    27. Ronald McKinnon, 2002. "Optimum currency areas and the European experience," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 10(2), pages 343-364, July.
    28. Lieven Baele & Annalisa Ferrando & Peter Hördahl & Elizaveta Krylova & Cyril Monnet, 2004. "Measuring financial integration in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 14, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stefano Schiavo, 2008. "Financial Integration, GDP Correlation and the Endogeneity of Optimum Currency Areas," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 75(297), pages 168-189, February.
    2. Willie Lahari, 2011. "Assessing Business Cycle Synchronisation - Prospects for a Pacific Islands Currency Union," Working Papers 1110, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2011.
    3. M.J. Artis, 2003. "Reflections on the optimal currency area (OCA) criteria in the light of EMU," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 297-307.
    4. Petr Rozmahel & Ladislava Issever Grochová & Marek Litzman, 2014. "The Effect of Asymmetries in Fiscal Policy Conducts on Business Cycle Correlation in the EU. WWWforEurope Working Paper No. 62," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 47249.
    5. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2008. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 1-19, February.
    6. Faruk Balli & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Bent E. Sørensen, 2012. "Risk sharing through capital gains," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 45(2), pages 472-492, May.
    7. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Ariell Reshef & Bent E Sørensen & Oved Yosha, 2010. "Why Does Capital Flow to Rich States?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 769-783, November.
    8. Crespo-Cuaresma, Jesús & Fernández-Amador, Octavio, 2013. "Business cycle convergence in EMU: A first look at the second moment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 265-284.
    9. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2006. "Synchronization of cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 59-79, May.
    10. Sorensen, Bent E. & Wu, Yi-Tsung & Yosha, Oved & Zhu, Yu, 2007. "Home bias and international risk sharing: Twin puzzles separated at birth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 587-605, June.
    11. Fratzscher, Marcel & Imbs, Jean, 2009. "Risk sharing, finance, and institutions in international portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 428-447, December.
    12. Zuzana Kucerova & Jitka Pomenkova, 2014. "Financial and Trade Integration of Selected EU Regions: Dynamic Correlation and Wavelet Approach," MENDELU Working Papers in Business and Economics 2014-45, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    13. Balli, Faruk & Sorensen, Bent E., 2007. "Risk Sharing among OECD and EU Countries: The Role of Capital Gains, Capital Income, Transfers, and Saving," MPRA Paper 10223, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Tarlok Singh, 2007. "Intertemporal Optimizing Models Of Trade And Current Account Balance: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 25-64, February.
    15. Jakob De Haan & Robert Inklaar & Richard Jong‐A‐Pin, 2008. "Will Business Cycles In The Euro Area Converge? A Critical Survey Of Empirical Research," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 234-273, April.
    16. Ali Trabelsi Karoui & Aida Kammoun, 2021. "Exchange Rate Determination: Mixed Microstructural and Macroeconomic Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 11(3), pages 89-106.
    17. Wälti, Sébastien, 2009. "Business cycle synchronicity, amplitude and the euro: one size does not yet fit all," MPRA Paper 21065, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Stavros Degiannakis & David Duffy & George Filis, 2014. "Business Cycle Synchronization in EU: A Time-Varying Approach," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 61(4), pages 348-370, September.
    19. Balli, Faruk & Basher, Syed Abul & Balli, Hatice Ozer, 2011. "Income insurance and the determinants of income insurance via foreign asset revenues and foreign liability payments," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 2296-2306, September.
    20. Eswar S. Prasad & Kenneth Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei & M. Ayhan Kose, 2007. "Financial Globalization, Growth and Volatility in Developing Countries," NBER Chapters, in: Globalization and Poverty, pages 457-516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cdl:bineur:qt2xz37086. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lisa Schiff (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://escholarship.org/uc/ies/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.