[go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/spmain/hal-01022326.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Financial Integration, GDP Correlation and the Endogeneity of Optimum Currency Areas

Author

Listed:
  • Stefano Schiavo

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract
The paper analyses the relationship between trade, financial integration and business cycle synchronization in the euro area. The introduction of the euro has had a noticeable impact on European financial markets. Evidence that capital market integration exerts a positive effect on output correlation has two major implications. First, it corroborates the hypothesis of the endogeneity of optimum currency areas, whereby after joining a monetary union countries better meet standard OCA criteria; second, it provides European policy-makers with yet another reason to pursue financial integration in the euro area (and in prospective members as well).

Suggested Citation

  • Stefano Schiavo, 2008. "Financial Integration, GDP Correlation and the Endogeneity of Optimum Currency Areas," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01022326, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-01022326
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0335.2007.00598.x
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01022326
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01022326/document
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1468-0335.2007.00598.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-1025, July.
    2. De Santis, Roberto A. & Gérard, Bruno, 2006. "Financial integration, international portfolio choice and the European Monetary Union," Working Paper Series 626, European Central Bank.
    3. Jean Imbs, 2004. "Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 723-734, August.
    4. Mr. Peter B. Clark & Shang-Jin Wei & Ms. Natalia T. Tamirisa & Mr. Azim M Sadikov & Mr. Li Zeng, 2004. "A New Look at Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade Flows," IMF Occasional Papers 2004/009, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2008. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 1-19, February.
    6. Stephen Bond, 2002. "Dynamic panel data models: a guide to microdata methods and practice," CeMMAP working papers CWP09/02, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    7. Mongelli, Francesco Paolo & De Grauwe, Paul, 2005. "Endogeneities of optimum currency areas: what brings countries sharing a single currency closer together?," Working Paper Series 468, European Central Bank.
    8. Rose, Andrew K & Engel, Charles, 2002. "Currency Unions and International Integration," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(4), pages 1067-1089, November.
    9. Marco Pagano, 2004. "The European Bond Markets under EMU," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 20(4), pages 531-554, Winter.
    10. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, W, 1997. "International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, January.
    11. Baele, Lieven & Ferrando, Annalisa & Hördahl, Peter & Krylova, Elizaveta & Monnet, Cyril, 2004. "Measuring financial integration in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 14, European Central Bank.
    12. Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Saiz, Lorena, 2006. "Are European business cycles close enough to be just one?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1687-1706.
    13. Baltagi, Badi H, 1984. "A Monte Carlo Study for Pooling Time Series of Cross-Section Data in the Simultaneous Equations Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(3), pages 603-624, October.
    14. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    15. Brulhart, Marius & Traeger, Rolf, 2005. "An account of geographic concentration patterns in Europe," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 597-624, November.
    16. Gabriele Galati & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2003. "The impact of the euro on Europe's financial markets," Financial Markets, Institutions & Instruments, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(3), pages 165-222, August.
    17. Inklaar, Robert & Jong-A-Pin, Richard & de Haan, Jakob, 2008. "Trade and business cycle synchronization in OECD countries--A re-examination," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 646-666, May.
    18. W. Jos Jansen & Ad C.J. Stokman, 2004. "Foreign Direct Investment and International Business Cycle Comovement," Macroeconomics 0402029, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Alberto Alesina & Robert J. Barro & Silvana Tenreyro, 2003. "Optimal Currency Areas," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 301-356, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Mongelli, Francesco Paolo, 2002. ""New" views on the optimum currency area theory: what is EMU telling us?," Working Paper Series 138, European Central Bank.
    21. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1994. "Risk-Taking, Global Diversification, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1310-1329, December.
    22. Torres,Francisco & Giavazzi,Francesco (ed.), 1993. "Adjustment and Growth in the European Monetary Union," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521440196, September.
    23. Francesco Farina & Roberto Tamborini, 2004. ""Set a Sufficiently Ambitious Budget Target and Let the Automatic Stabilizers Work". Will it Really Work in the European Monetary Union?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 143-168, April.
    24. Rajan, Raghuram G & Zingales, Luigi, 1998. "Financial Dependence and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 559-586, June.
    25. Stijn Claessens & Luc Laeven, 2005. "Financial Dependence, Banking Sector Competition, and Economic Growth," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(1), pages 179-207, March.
    26. Karen‐Helene Midelfart & Henry G. Overman & Anthony J. Venables, 2003. "Monetary Union and the Economic Geography of Europe," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(5), pages 847-868, December.
    27. Glenn Otto & Graham Voss & Luke Willard, 2001. "Understanding OECD Output Correlations," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    28. Lawrence Goldberg & James Lothian & John Okunev, 2003. "Has International Financial Integration Increased?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 299-317, July.
    29. Liliane Karlinger, 2002. "The Impact of Common Currencies on Financial Markets: A Literature Review and Evidence from the Euro Area," Staff Working Papers 02-35, Bank of Canada.
    30. Cappiello, Lorenzo & Manganelli, Simone & Hördahl, Peter & Kadareja, Arjan, 2006. "The impact of the euro on financial markets," Working Paper Series 598, European Central Bank.
    31. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 339-412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Jarko Fidrmuc, 2004. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria, Intra‐industry Trade, and EMU Enlargement," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 22(1), pages 1-12, January.
    33. Ron Martin, 2001. "EMU versus the regions? Regional convergence and divergence in Euroland," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 1(1), pages 51-80, January.
    34. Allen, Franklin & Gale, Douglas, 1999. "Diversity of Opinion and Financing of New Technologies," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 8(1-2), pages 68-89, January.
    35. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2005. "Trends and cycles in the Euro Area: how much heterogeneity and should we worry about it?," Macroeconomics 0511016, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    36. Baldwin, Richard E. & Skudelny, Frauke & Taglioni, Daria, 2005. "Trade effects of the euro: evidence from sectoral data," Working Paper Series 446, European Central Bank.
    37. Philipp Hartmann & Angela Maddaloni & Simone Manganelli, 2003. "The Euro-area Financial System: Structure, Integration, and Policy Initiatives," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 19(1), pages 180-213.
    38. Patrizio Pagano & Fabiano Schivardi, 2003. "Firm Size Distribution and Growth," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 105(2), pages 255-274, June.
    39. Bent E. Sorensen & Oved Yosha, 2000. "Is risk sharing in the United States a regional phenomenon?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 85(Q II), pages 33-47.
    40. Lorenzo Codogno & Carlo Favero & Alessandro Missale, 2003. "Yield spreads on EMU government bonds [‘Fiscal policy events and interest rate swap spreads: some evidence from the EU’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 503-532.
    41. Wyplosz, Charles (ed.), 2001. "The Impact of EMU on Europe and the Developing Countries," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199245314.
    42. Baxter, Marianne & Kouparitsas, Michael A., 2005. "Determinants of business cycle comovement: a robust analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 113-157, January.
    43. Michael Artis, 2003. "Is there a European Business Cycle?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1053, CESifo.
    44. Stephen R. Bond, 2002. "Dynamic panel data models: a guide to micro data methods and practice," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 1(2), pages 141-162, August.
    45. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Sorensen, Bent E. & Yosha, Oved, 2001. "Economic integration, industrial specialization, and the asymmetry of macroeconomic fluctuations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 107-137, October.
    46. Baltagi, Badi H. & Chang, Young-Jae, 2000. "Simultaneous Equations With Incomplete Panels," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 269-279, April.
    47. Lieven Baele & Annalisa Ferrando & Peter Hördahl & Elizaveta Krylova & Cyril Monnet, 2004. "Measuring financial integration in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 14, European Central Bank.
    48. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi, 2002. "Current Account Deficits in the Euro Area: The End of the Feldstein Horioka Puzzle?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 147-210.
    49. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 08-45.
    50. repec:oup:ecpoli:v:18:y:2003:i:37:p:503-532 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/9857 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/9857 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/9857 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/9857 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Marc-Alexandre Sénégas, 2010. "La théorie des zones monétaires optimales au regard de l'euro : Quels enseignements après dix années d'union économique et monétaire en Europe ?," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 120(2), pages 379-419.
    6. Jakob De Haan & Robert Inklaar & Richard Jong‐A‐Pin, 2008. "Will Business Cycles In The Euro Area Converge? A Critical Survey Of Empirical Research," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 234-273, April.
    7. Petr Rozmahel & Ladislava Issever Grochová & Marek Litzman, 2014. "The Effect of Asymmetries in Fiscal Policy Conducts on Business Cycle Correlation in the EU. WWWforEurope Working Paper No. 62," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 47249.
    8. Crespo-Cuaresma, Jesús & Fernández-Amador, Octavio, 2013. "Business cycle convergence in EMU: A first look at the second moment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 265-284.
    9. repec:cnb:ocpubv:as15 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Inklaar, Robert & Jong-A-Pin, Richard & de Haan, Jakob, 2008. "Trade and business cycle synchronization in OECD countries--A re-examination," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 646-666, May.
    11. António Caleiro, 2011. "Acerca da importância da sincronização do ciclo económico português no contexto europeu," Economics Working Papers 4_2011, University of Évora, Department of Economics (Portugal).
    12. Wälti, Sébastien, 2009. "Business cycle synchronicity, amplitude and the euro: one size does not yet fit all," MPRA Paper 21065, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Francesco Paolo Mongelli, 2008. "European Economic and Monetary Integration, and the Optimum Currency Area Theory," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 302, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    14. Ionut Jianu, 2020. "Examining the drivers of business cycle divergence between Euro Area and Romania," Papers 2007.11407, arXiv.org.
    15. S颡stien Wälti, 2012. "The myth of decoupling," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(26), pages 3407-3419, September.
    16. Mongelli, Francesco Paolo & De Grauwe, Paul, 2005. "Endogeneities of optimum currency areas: what brings countries sharing a single currency closer together?," Working Paper Series 468, European Central Bank.
    17. Ionuț JIANU, 2020. "Examining the drivers of business cycle divergence between Euro Area and Romania," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(623), S), pages 19-32, Summer.
    18. Goggin, Jean & Siedschlag, Iulia, 2009. "International Transmission of Business Cycles Between Ireland and its Trading Partners," Papers WP279, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    19. Jianu, Ionut, 2020. "Examining the drivers of business cycle divergence between Euro Area and Romania," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 27(2), pages 19-32.
    20. Sofia Gouveia & Leonida Correia, 2008. "Business cycle synchronisation in the Euro area: the case of small countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 103-121, July.
    21. António Afonso & Davide Furceri, 2009. "Sectoral Business Cycle Synchronization in the European Union," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 2996-3014.
    22. Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen & Ivana Bátorová, 2013. "China in the World Economy: Dynamic Correlation Analysis of Business Cycles," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 59(2), pages 392-411, June.
    23. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Elias Papaioannou & José-Luis Peydró, 2013. "Financial Regulation, Financial Globalization, and the Synchronization of Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 1179-1228, June.
    24. Athina Zervoyianni & Athanasios Anastasiou, 2009. "Convergence of shocks and trade in the enlarged European Union," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 79-114.
    25. repec:cnb:ocpubv:as16 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Wälti, Sébastien, 2011. "Stock market synchronization and monetary integration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 96-110, February.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-01022326. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Contact - Sciences Po Departement of Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.