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The Emigration Life Cycle: How Development Shapes Emigration from Poor Countries

Author

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  • Michael A. Clemens

    (Center for Global Development
    IZA Institute of Labor Economics)

Abstract
Many governments seek to reduce emigration from low-income countries by encouraging economic development there. A large literature, however, observes that average emigration rates are higher in countries with sustained increases in GDP per capita than in either chronically poor countries or established rich countries. This suggests an emigration life cycle in which average emigration first rises, then falls with development. But this hypothesis has not been tested with global datasets controlling for unobserved heterogeneity between countries. This paper finds that emigration rises on average as GDP per capita initially rises in poor countries, slowing after roughly US$5,000 at purchasing power parity, and reversing after roughly $10,000. Before this reversal, the within-country elasticity of rising emigration prevalence to rising GDP per capita is +0.35 to all destinations, and +0.74 to rich destinations. This relationship between emigration flows and economic growth is highly robust to country and time effects (fixed or random), specification (linear, log, nonparametric), emigration measure (stock or flow), country subsamples (rich destinations, large origins), and historical period (1960–2019 or 1850–1914). Decomposition of channels for this relationship highlight the joint importance of demographic transition, education investment, and structural change, but question a large role for transportation costs or policy barriers.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael A. Clemens, 2020. "The Emigration Life Cycle: How Development Shapes Emigration from Poor Countries," Working Papers 540, Center for Global Development.
    • Handle: RePEc:cgd:wpaper:540
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    6. Narcisse Cha'Ngom & Christoph Deuster & Frédéric Docquier & Joël Machado, 2023. "Selective Migration and Economic Development: A Generalized Approach," LISER Working Paper Series 2023-06, Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER).
    7. Clemens, Michael A., 2021. "Violence, development, and migration waves: Evidence from Central American child migrant apprehensions," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    8. Guillaume Blanc, 2024. "Demographic Transitions, Rural Flight, and Intergenerational Persistence: Evidence From Crowdsourced Genealogies," Working Papers hal-02922398, HAL.
    9. Langella, Monica & Manning, Alan, 2021. "Income and the desire to migrate," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 113875, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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    11. Stöhr, Christian, 2022. "The Effect of Micro-Entrepreneurship on Migration Plans of Young Adults in Rural Sub-Saharan Africa and the Mediating Role of Subjective and Economic Well-Being," Junior Management Science (JUMS), Junior Management Science e. V., vol. 7(5), pages 1326-1360.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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