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Forecasting recessions in real time

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Abstract
We review several methods to define and forecast classical business cycle turning points in Norway. In the paper we compare the Bry - Boschan rule (BB) with a Markov Switching model (MS), using alternative vintages of Norwegian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as the business cycle indicator. The timing of business cycles depends on the vintage and the method used. BB provides the most reasonable definition of business cycles. The forecasting exercise, where the models are augmented with surveys or financial indicators, respectively, leads to the conclusion that the BB rule applied to density forecasts of GDP augmented with either the consumer confidence index or a financial conditions index provides the most timely predictions of peaks. For troughs, augmenting with surveys or financial indicators does not increase forecastability.

Suggested Citation

  • Knut Are Aastveit & Anne Sofie Jore & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2014. "Forecasting recessions in real time," Working Paper 2014/02, Norges Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2014_02
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    File URL: http://www.norges-bank.no/en/Published/Papers/Working-Papers/2014/201402/
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    Cited by:

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    3. Pirschel, Inske, 2015. "Forecasting Euro Area Recessions in real-time with a mixed-frequency Bayesian VAR," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113031, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Antonello D Agostino & Caterina Mendicino & Caterina Mendicino, 2015. "Can consumer confidence provide independent information on consumption spending?," Working Papers 2, European Stability Mechanism.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecast densities; Turning points; Real-time data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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