[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jtsera/v25y2004i6p785-809.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo Strategies for Bayesian Model Selection in Autoregressive Processes

Author

Listed:
  • J. Vermaak
  • C. Andrieu
  • A. Doucet
  • S. J. Godsill
Abstract
. This paper addresses the problem of Bayesian inference in autoregressive (AR) processes in the case where the correct model order is unknown. Original hierarchical prior models that allow the stationarity of the model to be enforced are proposed. Obtaining the quantities of interest, such as parameter estimates, predictions of future values of the time series, posterior model‐order probabilities, etc., requires integration with respect to the full posterior distribution, an operation which is analytically intractable. Reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are developed to perform the required integration implicitly by simulating from the posterior distribution. The methods developed are evaluated in simulation studies on a number of synthetic and real data sets.

Suggested Citation

  • J. Vermaak & C. Andrieu & A. Doucet & S. J. Godsill, 2004. "Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo Strategies for Bayesian Model Selection in Autoregressive Processes," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(6), pages 785-809, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jtsera:v:25:y:2004:i:6:p:785-809
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9892.2004.00380.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9892.2004.00380.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1467-9892.2004.00380.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barnett, Glen & Kohn, Robert & Sheather, Simon, 1996. "Bayesian estimation of an autoregressive model using Markov chain Monte Carlo," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 237-254, October.
    2. Sylvia. Richardson & Peter J. Green, 1997. "On Bayesian Analysis of Mixtures with an Unknown Number of Components (with discussion)," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 59(4), pages 731-792.
    3. C. P. Robert & T. Rydén & D. M. Titterington, 2000. "Bayesian inference in hidden Markov models through the reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo method," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 62(1), pages 57-75.
    4. Gabriel Huerta & Mike West, 1999. "Bayesian Inference on Periodicities and Component Spectral Structure in Time Series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(4), pages 401-416, July.
    5. Michael Smith & Chi‐Ming Wong & Robert Kohn, 1998. "Additive nonparametric regression with autocorrelated errors," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 60(2), pages 311-331.
    6. G. Huerta & M. West, 1999. "Priors and component structures in autoregressive time series models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 61(4), pages 881-899.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. João Henrique Gonçalves Mazzeu & Esther Ruiz & Helena Veiga, 2018. "Uncertainty And Density Forecasts Of Arma Models: Comparison Of Asymptotic, Bayesian, And Bootstrap Procedures," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 388-419, April.
    2. Veiga, Helena, 2015. "Model uncertainty and the forecast accuracy of ARMA models: A survey," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws1508, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    3. Raggi, Davide & Bordignon, Silvano, 2012. "Long memory and nonlinearities in realized volatility: A Markov switching approach," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3730-3742.
    4. Knut Are Aastveit & Anne Sofie Jore & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2014. "Forecasting recessions in real time," Working Paper 2014/02, Norges Bank.
    5. Meyer-Gohde, Alexander & Neuhoff, Daniel, 2015. "Generalized exogenous processes in DSGE: A Bayesian approach," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2015-014, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    6. Philippe, Anne, 2006. "Bayesian analysis of autoregressive moving average processes with unknown orders," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 1904-1923, December.
    7. Billio, Monica & Casarin, Roberto & Ravazzolo, Francesco & van Dijk, Herman K., 2012. "Combination schemes for turning point predictions," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 402-412.
    8. Ringwald, Leopold & Zörner, Thomas O., 2023. "The money-inflation nexus revisited," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 293-333.
    9. Ricardo S. Ehlers & Stephen P. Brooks, 2008. "Adaptive Proposal Construction for Reversible Jump MCMC," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 35(4), pages 677-690, December.
    10. Vosseler, Alexander, 2016. "Bayesian model selection for unit root testing with multiple structural breaks," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 616-630.
    11. Drovandi, Christopher C. & Pettitt, Anthony N. & Henderson, Robert D. & McCombe, Pamela A., 2014. "Marginal reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo with application to motor unit number estimation," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 128-146.
    12. Guillermo Ferreira & Jorge Figueroa-Zúñiga & Mário Castro, 2015. "Partially linear beta regression model with autoregressive errors," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 24(4), pages 752-775, December.
    13. Glen Livingston & Darfiana Nur, 2020. "Bayesian inference of smooth transition autoregressive (STAR)(k)–GARCH(l, m) models," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 61(6), pages 2449-2482, December.
    14. Daniel Felix Ahelegbey & Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin, 2016. "Sparse Graphical Vector Autoregression: A Bayesian Approach," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 123-124, pages 333-361.
    15. Tang, Yongqiang & Ghosal, Subhashis, 2007. "A consistent nonparametric Bayesian procedure for estimating autoregressive conditional densities," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(9), pages 4424-4437, May.
    16. Gareth W. Peters & Balakrishnan Kannan & Ben Lasscock & Chris Mellen, 2010. "Model Selection and Adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo for Bayesian Cointegrated VAR model," Papers 1004.3830, arXiv.org.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. McCoy, E. J. & Stephens, D. A., 2004. "Bayesian time series analysis of periodic behaviour and spectral structure," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 713-730.
    2. Philippe, Anne, 2006. "Bayesian analysis of autoregressive moving average processes with unknown orders," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 1904-1923, December.
    3. Huerta, Gabriel & Lopes, Hedibert Freitas, 2000. "Bayesian forecasting and inference in latent structure for the Brazilian Industrial Production Index," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 20(1), May.
    4. Macaro, Christian, 2010. "Bayesian non-parametric signal extraction for Gaussian time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(2), pages 381-395, August.
    5. N. K. Unnikrishnan, 2004. "Bayesian Subset Model Selection for Time Series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 671-690, September.
    6. McGrory, C.A. & Pettitt, A.N. & Faddy, M.J., 2009. "A fully Bayesian approach to inference for Coxian phase-type distributions with covariate dependent mean," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(12), pages 4311-4321, October.
    7. Billio, M. & Monfort, A. & Robert, C. P., 1999. "Bayesian estimation of switching ARMA models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 229-255, December.
    8. Oscar M Rueda & Ramón Díaz-Uriarte, 2007. "Flexible and Accurate Detection of Genomic Copy-Number Changes from aCGH," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 3(6), pages 1-8, June.
    9. Liu, Hefei & Song, Xinyuan, 2021. "Bayesian analysis of hidden Markov structural equation models with an unknown number of hidden states," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 29-43.
    10. Panagiotis Papastamoulis & George Iliopoulos, 2013. "On the Convergence Rate of Random Permutation Sampler and ECR Algorithm in Missing Data Models," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 293-304, June.
    11. Vosseler, Alexander, 2016. "Bayesian model selection for unit root testing with multiple structural breaks," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 616-630.
    12. Harvey, Andrew C. & Trimbur, Thomas M. & Van Dijk, Herman K., 2007. "Trends and cycles in economic time series: A Bayesian approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 618-649, October.
    13. McGrory, C.A. & Titterington, D.M., 2007. "Variational approximations in Bayesian model selection for finite mixture distributions," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(11), pages 5352-5367, July.
    14. Ho, Remus K.W. & Hu, Inchi, 2008. "Flexible modelling of random effects in linear mixed models--A Bayesian approach," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 1347-1361, January.
    15. Shuang Zhang & Xingdong Feng, 2022. "Distributed identification of heterogeneous treatment effects," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 57-89, March.
    16. Li, Feng & Kang, Yanfei, 2018. "Improving forecasting performance using covariate-dependent copula models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 456-476.
    17. Sik-Yum Lee, 2006. "Bayesian Analysis of Nonlinear Structural Equation Models with Nonignorable Missing Data," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 71(3), pages 541-564, September.
    18. Fisher, Mark & Jensen, Mark J., 2022. "Bayesian nonparametric learning of how skill is distributed across the mutual fund industry," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 230(1), pages 131-153.
    19. Kai Yang & Qingqing Zhang & Xinyang Yu & Xiaogang Dong, 2023. "Bayesian inference for a mixture double autoregressive model," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 77(2), pages 188-207, May.
    20. Cai, Jing-Heng & Song, Xin-Yuan & Lam, Kwok-Hap & Ip, Edward Hak-Sing, 2011. "A mixture of generalized latent variable models for mixed mode and heterogeneous data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(11), pages 2889-2907, November.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jtsera:v:25:y:2004:i:6:p:785-809. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0143-9782 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.