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Consumption and real exchange rates in professional forecasts

Author

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  • Michael B Devereux
  • Gregor W Smith
  • James Yetman
Abstract
Standard models of international risk sharing with complete asset markets predict a positive association between relative consumption growth and real exchange-rate depreciations across countries. The striking lack of evidence for this link - the consumption/real-exchange-rate anomaly or Backus-Smith puzzle - has prompted research on risk-sharing indicators with incomplete asset markets. That research generally implies that the association holds in forecasts, rather than realizations. Using professional forecasts for 28 countries for 1990-2008 we find no such association, thus deepening the puzzle. Independent evidence on the weak link between forecasts for consumption and real interest rates suggests that the presence of 'hand-to-mouth' consumers may help to explain the evidence.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael B Devereux & Gregor W Smith & James Yetman, 2009. "Consumption and real exchange rates in professional forecasts," BIS Working Papers 295, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:295
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    Cited by:

    1. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Francesca Viani, 2012. "The international risk sharing puzzle is at business cycle and lower frequency," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 45(2), pages 448-471, May.
    2. Robert Kollmann, 2012. "Limited asset market participation and the consumption‐real exchange rate anomaly," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(2), pages 566-584, May.
    3. Jonas Dovern & Ulrich Fritsche & Jiri Slacalek, 2012. "Disagreement Among Forecasters in G7 Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 1081-1096, November.
    4. Predrag Petroviæ, 2016. "Backus–Smith puzzle and the European Union: It’s not just the nominal exchange rate," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 34(2), pages 393-418.
    5. Clements, Michael P., 2016. "Long-run restrictions and survey forecasts of output, consumption and investment," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 614-628.
    6. Robert Kollmann, 2015. "Exchange Rates Dynamics with Long-Run Risk and Recursive Preferences," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 175-196, April.
    7. Jinill Kim & Seth Pruitt, 2017. "Estimating Monetary Policy Rules When Nominal Interest Rates Are Stuck at Zero," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(4), pages 585-602, June.
    8. Nguyen, Ha Trong & Duncan, Alan S, 2017. "Exchange rate fluctuations and immigrants' labour market outcomes: New evidence from Australian household panel data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 174-186.
    9. Devereux, Michael B. & Smith, Gregor W. & Yetman, James, 2012. "Consumption and real exchange rates in professional forecasts," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 33-42.
    10. Lo Prete, Anna, 2013. "Sharing risk within and across countries: the role of labor market institutions," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 449-461.
    11. Gregory Bauer & Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2012. "An International Dynamic Term Structure Model with Economic Restrictions and Unspanned Risks," Staff Working Papers 12-5, Bank of Canada.
    12. Yu-chin Chen & Kwok Ping Tsang & Wen Jen Tsay, 2010. "Home Bias in Currency Forecasts," Working Papers 272010, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    13. Robert Kollmann, 2015. "Exchange Rate and Current Account Dynamics: the Role of Asset Market Structure, Long-Run Risk and Risk Appetite," 2015 Meeting Papers 1397, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Hamano, Masashige, 2013. "The consumption-real exchange rate anomaly with extensive margins," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 26-46.
    15. Clements, Michael P., 2024. "Do professional forecasters believe in the Phillips curve?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 1238-1254.
    16. Cociuba, Simona E. & Ramanarayanan, Ananth, 2019. "International risk sharing with endogenously segmented asset markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 61-78.
    17. Hassan, Tarek A. & Mertens, Thomas M. & Zhang, Tony, 2016. "Not so disconnected: Exchange rates and the capital stock," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(S1), pages 43-57.
    18. Thomas Habanabakize, 2021. "Determining the Household Consumption Expenditure’s Resilience towards Petrol Price, Disposable Income and Exchange Rate Volatilities," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-15, June.
    19. Matthew Canzoneri & Robert Cumby & Behzad Diba, 2013. "Addressing International Empirical Puzzles: the Liquidity of Bonds," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 197-215, April.
    20. Arbind Chaudhary, 2017. "Estimation of Aggregate Consumption Function for Nepal: ARDL Bound Testing Approach," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Economic Research Department, vol. 29(2), pages 50-65, October.
    21. Kollmann, Robert, 2009. "Domestic Financial Frictions: Implications for International Risk Sharing, Real Exchange Rate Volatility and International Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 70348, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. J. Scott Davis & Ignacio Presno, 2014. "Inflation targeting and the anchoring of inflation expectations: cross-country evidence from consensus forecasts," Globalization Institute Working Papers 174, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    23. Michael B. Devereux & Viktoria Hnatkovska, 2011. "Consumption Risk-Sharing and the Real Exchange Rate: Why does the Nominal Exchange Rate Make Such a Difference?," NBER Working Papers 17288, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    Keywords

    international risk sharing; Backus-Smith puzzle;

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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