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The international risk sharing puzzle is at business cycle and lower frequency

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  • Giancarlo Corsetti
  • Luca Dedola
  • Francesca Viani
Abstract
We decompose the correlation between relative consumption and the real exchange rate in its dynamic components at different frequencies. Using multivariate spectral analysis techniques, we show that, at odds with a high degree of risk sharing, in most OECD countries the dynamic correlation tends to be quite negative, and significantly so, at frequencies lower than two years - the appropriate frequencies for assessing the performance of international business cycle models. Theoretically, we show that the dynamic correlation over different frequencies predicted by standard open economy models is the sum of two terms: a term constant across frequencies, which can be negative when uninsurable risk is large; a term variable across frequencies, which in bond economies is necessarily positive, reflecting the insurance intertemporal trade provides against forecastable contingencies. Numerical analysis suggests that leading mechanisms proposed by the literature to account for the puzzle are consistent with the evidence across the spectrum.

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  • Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Francesca Viani, 2012. "The international risk sharing puzzle is at business cycle and lower frequency," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 45(2), pages 448-471, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:45:y:2012:i:2:p:448-471
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-5982.2012.01704.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Francesca Viani, 2012. "Traded and Nontraded Goods Prices, and International Risk Sharing: An Empirical Investigation," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(1), pages 403-466.
    2. Bengui, Julien & Mendoza, Enrique G. & Quadrini, Vincenzo, 2013. "Capital mobility and international sharing of cyclical risk," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 42-62.
    3. Gogas, Periklis & Plakandaras, Vasilios & Papadimitriou, Theophilos, 2014. "Public debt and private consumption in OECD countries," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 1-7.
    4. Robert Kollmann, 2019. "Explaining International Business Cycle Synchronization: Recursive Preferences and the Terms of Trade Channel," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 65-85, February.
    5. Daragh Clancy & Lorenzo Ricci, 2022. "Economic sentiments and international risk sharing," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 169, pages 208-229.
    6. Devereux, Michael B. & Kollmann, Robert, 2012. "International Risk Sharing," MPRA Paper 70129, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Rabanal, Pau & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan F., 2015. "Can international macroeconomic models explain low-frequency movements of real exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 199-211.
    8. Akkoyun, H. Cagri & Arslan, Yavuz & Kanik, Birol, 2013. "Housing prices and transaction volume," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 119-134.
    9. Trezzi, Riccardo, 2013. "A wavelet analysis of international risk-sharing," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 330-333.
    10. Predrag Petroviæ, 2016. "Backus–Smith puzzle and the European Union: It’s not just the nominal exchange rate," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 34(2), pages 393-418.
    11. Aydan Dogan, 2014. "Euro- US Real Exchange Rate Dynamics: How Far Can We Push Equilibrium Models?," Studies in Economics 1409, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    12. Donadelli, Michael & Paradiso, Antonio, 2014. "Does financial integration affect real exchange rate volatility and cross-country equity market returns correlation?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 206-220.
    13. Chaban, Maxym, 2024. "Exchange rate dynamics and consumption of traded goods," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    14. Daragh Clancy & Lorenzo Ricci, 2019. "Loss aversion, economic sentiments and international consumption smoothing," Working Papers 35, European Stability Mechanism.
    15. Robert P. Flood & Nancy P. Marion & Akito Matsumoto, 2012. "International risk sharing during the globalization era," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(2), pages 394-416, May.
    16. Jean-François Rouillard, 2013. "International Risk Sharing and Land Dynamics," Cahiers de recherche 13-02, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    17. Iwata, Yasuharu, 2013. "Two fiscal policy puzzles revisited: New evidence and an explanation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 188-207.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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