[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bis/biswps/1086.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

CBDC policies in open economies

Author

Listed:
  • Andrej Sokol
  • Michael Kumhof
  • Marco Pinchetti
  • Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul
Abstract
We study the consequences for business cycles and welfare of introducing an interest-bearing retail CBDC, competing with bank deposits as medium of exchange, into an estimated 2-country DSGE environment. According to our estimates, financial shocks account for around half of the variance of aggregate demand and inflation, and for the bulk of the variance of financial variables. CBDC issuance of 30% of GDP increases output and welfare by around 6% and 2%, respectively. An aggressive Taylor rule for the interest rate on reserves achieves welfare gains of 0.57% of steady state consumption, an optimized CBDC interest rate rule that responds to a credit gap achieves additional welfare gains of 0.44%, and further gains of 0.57% if accompanied by automatic fiscal stabilizers. A CBDC quantity rule, a response to an inflation gap, CBDC as generalized retail access to reserves, and especially a cash-like zero-interest CBDC, yield significantly smaller gains. CBDC policies can substantially reduce the volatilities of domestic and cross- border banking flows and of the exchange rate. Optimal policy requires a steady state quantity of CBDC of around 40% of annual GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrej Sokol & Michael Kumhof & Marco Pinchetti & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2023. "CBDC policies in open economies," BIS Working Papers 1086, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:1086
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bis.org/publ/work1086.pdf
    File Function: Full PDF document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.bis.org/publ/work1086.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2012. "The Aggregate Demand for Treasury Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(2), pages 233-267.
    2. Robert M. Adams & Kenneth P. Brevoort & Elizabeth K. Kiser, 2007. "Who Competes With Whom? The Case Of Depository Institutions," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(1), pages 141-167, March.
    3. Nathalie Girouard & Christophe André, 2005. "Measuring Cyclically-adjusted Budget Balances for OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 434, OECD Publishing.
    4. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2004. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy under sticky prices," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 198-230, February.
    5. Gareth Anderson & Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, 2020. "Crossing the Credit Channel: Credit Spreads and Firm Heterogeneity," Discussion Papers 2005, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    6. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2018. "The External Wealth of Nations Revisited: International Financial Integration in the Aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 66(1), pages 189-222, March.
    7. Ferrari Minesso, Massimo & Mehl, Arnaud & Stracca, Livio, 2022. "Central bank digital currency in an open economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 54-68.
    8. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2004. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy under imperfect competition," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 183-209, June.
    9. Lorenzo Burlon & Manuel A. Muñoz & Frank Smets, 2024. "The Optimal Quantity of CBDC in a Bank-Based Economy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 172-217, October.
    10. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2012. "Characterising the financial cycle: don't lose sight of the medium term!," BIS Working Papers 380, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Schilling, Linda & Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Uhlig, Harald, 2024. "Central bank digital currency: When price and bank stability collide," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    12. Todd Keister & Daniel Sanches, 2023. "Should Central Banks Issue Digital Currency?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(1), pages 404-431.
    13. Matteo Iacoviello & Fabio Schiantarelli & Scott Schuh, 2011. "Input And Output Inventories In General Equilibrium," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1179-1213, November.
    14. Jing Cynthia Wu & Fan Dora Xia, 2016. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2-3), pages 253-291, March.
    15. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Daniel Sanches & Linda Schilling & Harald Uhlig, 2021. "Central Bank Digital Currency: Central Banking For All?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 41, pages 225-242, July.
    16. Brunnermeier, Markus K. & Niepelt, Dirk, 2019. "On the equivalence of private and public money," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 27-41.
    17. William Poole, 1969. "Optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in a simple stochastic macro model," Special Studies Papers 2, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Patrick McGuire & Goetz von Peter, 2012. "The Dollar Shortage in Global Banking and the International Policy Response," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 155-178, June.
    19. Agur, Itai & Ari, Anil & Dell’Ariccia, Giovanni, 2022. "Designing central bank digital currencies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 62-79.
    20. Raphael Auer & Codruta Boar & Giulio Cornelli & Jon Frost & Henry Holden & Andreas Wehrli, 2021. "CBDCs beyond borders: results from a survey of central banks," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 116.
    21. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 24(Win), pages 14-23.
    22. Ching-Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & John Hill, 2018. "The Rate Elasticity of Retail Deposits in the United Kingdom: A Macroeconomic Investigation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(2), pages 113-158, March.
    23. Ho, Katherine & Ishii, Joy, 2011. "Location and competition in retail banking," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 537-546, September.
    24. Pietro Cova & Alessandro Notarpietro & Patrizio Pagano & Massimiliano Pisani, 2022. "Monetary policy in the open economy with digital currencies," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1366, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    25. Anneke Kosse & Ilaria Mattei, 2022. "Gaining momentum – Results of the 2021 BIS survey on central bank digital currencies," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 125.
    26. Eric M. Engen & R. Glenn Hubbard, 2005. "Federal Government Debt and Interest Rates," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 83-160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M Taylor, 2011. "Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(2), pages 340-378, June.
    28. Thomas Laubach, 2009. "New Evidence on the Interest Rate Effects of Budget Deficits and Debt," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 858-885, June.
    29. Dick, Astrid A., 2008. "Demand estimation and consumer welfare in the banking industry," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1661-1676, August.
    30. Kumhof, Michael & Allen, Jason & Bateman, Will & Lastra, Rosa & Gleeson, Simon & Omarova, Saule, 2020. "Central Bank Money: Liability, Asset, or Equity of the Nation?," CEPR Discussion Papers 15521, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    31. Patrick McGuire & Goetz von Peter, 2009. "The US dollar shortage in global banking," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    32. Philippe Bacchetta & Elena Perazzi, 2021. "CBDC as Imperfect Substitute for Bank Deposits: A Macroeconomic Perspective," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 21-81, Swiss Finance Institute.
    33. R. Glenn Hubbard & Eric M. Engen, 2004. "Federal Government Debt and Interest Rates," AEI Economics Working Papers 50018, American Enterprise Institute.
    34. Gertler, Mark & Karadi, Peter, 2011. "A model of unconventional monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-34, January.
    35. Kumhof, Michael & Noone, Clare, 2021. "Central bank digital currencies — Design principles for financial stability," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 553-572.
    36. Joseph Kuehn, 2018. "Spillovers from entry: the impact of bank branch network expansion," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 49(4), pages 964-994, December.
    37. Iñaki Aldasoro & Torsten Ehlers & Patrick McGuire & Goetz von Peter, 2020. "Global banks' dollar funding needs and central bank swap lines," BIS Bulletins 27, Bank for International Settlements.
    38. William Poole, 1970. "Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in a Simple Stochastic Macro Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 84(2), pages 197-216.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Assenmacher, Katrin & Ferrari Minesso, Massimo & Mehl, Arnaud & Pagliari, Maria Sole, 2024. "Managing the transition to central bank digital currency," Working Paper Series 2907, European Central Bank.
    2. Moro, Alessandro & Nispi Landi, Valerio, 2024. "The external financial spillovers of CBDCs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    3. Dunbar, Kwamie & Treku, Daniel N., 2024. "Examining the impact of a central bank digital currency on the access to banking," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Barrdear, John & Kumhof, Michael, 2022. "The macroeconomics of central bank digital currencies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    2. Lorenzo Burlon & Manuel A. Muñoz & Frank Smets, 2024. "The Optimal Quantity of CBDC in a Bank-Based Economy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 172-217, October.
    3. Barrdear, John & Kumhof, Michael, 2016. "The macroeconomics of central bank issued digital currencies," Bank of England working papers 605, Bank of England.
    4. Assenmacher, Katrin & Bitter, Lea & Ristiniemi, Annukka, 2023. "CBDC and business cycle dynamics in a New Monetarist New Keynesian model," Working Paper Series 2811, European Central Bank.
    5. Le, Anh H., 2022. "Central bank digital currency and cryptocurrency in emerging markets," MPRA Paper 114734, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Muñoz, Manuel A. & Soons, Oscar, 2023. "Public money as a store of value, heterogeneous beliefs, and banks: implications of CBDC," Working Paper Series 2801, European Central Bank.
    7. Cong, Lin William & Mayer, Simon, 2022. "The Coming Battle of Digital Currencies," Applied Economics and Policy Working Paper Series 320020, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    8. Marcelo A. T. Aragão, 2021. "A Few Things You Wanted to Know about the Economics of CBDCs, but were Afraid to Model: a survey of what we can learn from who has done," Working Papers Series 554, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    9. Dionysopoulos, Lambis & Marra, Miriam & Urquhart, Andrew, 2024. "Central bank digital currencies: A critical review," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    10. Keister, Todd & Monnet, Cyril, 2022. "Central bank digital currency: Stability and information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    11. Dirk Niepelt, 2024. "Money and Banking with Reserves and CBDC," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(4), pages 2505-2552, August.
    12. Schiller, Jonathan & Gross, Jonas, 2021. "A Model for Central Bank Digital Currencies: Implications for Bank Funding and Monetary Policy," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242350, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    13. Magin, Jana Anjali & Neyer, Ulrike & Stempel, Daniel, 2023. "The macroeconomic effects of different CBDC regimes in an economy with a heterogeneous household sector," DICE Discussion Papers 396, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
    14. Ngo, Vu Minh & Van Nguyen, Phuc & Nguyen, Huan Huu & Thi Tram, Huong Xuan & Hoang, Long Cuu, 2023. "Governance and monetary policy impacts on public acceptance of CBDC adoption," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    15. Magin, Jana & Neyer, Ulrike & Stempel, Daniel, 2023. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Different CBDC Regimes in an Economy with a Heterogeneous Household Sector," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277656, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    16. Karau, Sören, 2023. "Central bank digital currency competition and the impossible trinity," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    17. Rehman, Mubeen Abdur & Irfan, Muhammad & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Lucey, Brian M. & Karim, Sitara, 2023. "Macro-financial implications of central bank digital currencies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    18. Simone Auer & Nicola Branzoli & Giuseppe Ferrero & Antonio Ilari & Francesco Palazzo & Edoardo Rainone, 2024. "CBDC and the banking system," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 829, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    19. Li, Jiaqi, 2023. "Predicting the demand for central bank digital currency: A structural analysis with survey data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 73-85.
    20. Wang, Yi-Ran & Ma, Chao-Qun & Ren, Yi-Shuai, 2022. "A model for CBDC audits based on blockchain technology: Learning from the DCEP," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    central bank digital currencies; monetary policy; bank deposits; bank loans; monetary frictions; money demand; money supply; credit creation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:1086. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Martin Fessler (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bisssch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.