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An automatic algorithm to date the reference cycle of the Spanish economy

Author

Listed:
  • Máximo Camacho

    (University of Murcia)

  • María Dolores Gadea

    (University of Zaragoza)

  • Ana Gómez Loscos

    (Banco de España)

Abstract
This paper provides an accurate chronology of the Spanish reference business cycle by adapting the multiple change-point model proposed by Camacho, Gadea and Gómez Loscos (2021). In that approach, each individual pair of specific peaks and troughs from a set of indicators is viewed as a realization of a mixture of an unspecified number of separate bivariate Gaussian distributions, whose different means are the reference turning points and whose transitions are governed by a restricted Markov chain. In the empirical application, seven recessions in the period from 1970.2 to 2020.2 are identified, which are in high concordance with the timing of the turning point dates established by the Spanish Business Cycle Dating Committee (SBCDC)

Suggested Citation

  • Máximo Camacho & María Dolores Gadea & Ana Gómez Loscos, 2021. "An automatic algorithm to date the reference cycle of the Spanish economy," Working Papers 2139, Banco de España.
    • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:2139
    as

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    File URL: https://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/21/Files/dt2139e.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycles; turning points; finite mixture models; Spain;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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