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Monetary Policy Independence and the Strength of the Global Financial Cycle

Author

Listed:
  • Christian Friedrich
  • Pierre Guérin
  • Danilo Leiva-Leon
Abstract
We propose a new strength measure of the global financial cycle by estimating a regime-switching factor model on cross-border equity flows for 61 countries. We then assess how the strength of the global financial cycle affects monetary policy independence, which is defined as the response of central banks' policy interest rates to exogenous changes in inflation. We show that central banks tighten their policy rates in response to an unanticipated increase in the inflation gap during times when global financial cycle strength is low. During times of high financial cycle strength, however, the responses of the same central banks to the same unanticipated changes in the inflation gap appear muted. Finally, by assessing the impact of different policy tools on countries' sensitivities to the global financial cycle, we show that using capital controls, macroprudential policies, and the presence of a flexible exchange rate regime can increase monetary policy independence.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Friedrich & Pierre Guérin & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2020. "Monetary Policy Independence and the Strength of the Global Financial Cycle," Staff Working Papers 20-25, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:20-25
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    Cited by:

    1. Kristin J. Forbes, 2021. "The International Aspects of Macroprudential Policy," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 203-228, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business fluctuations and cycles; Exchange rate regimes; Financial system regulation and policies; International financial markets; Monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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