[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/amz/wpaper/2019-12.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A simulation of the insurance industry: The problem of risk model homogeneity

Author

Listed:
  • Farmer, J. Doyne
  • Heinrich, Torsten
  • Sabuco, Juan
Abstract
We develop an agent-based simulation of the catastrophe insurance and reinsurance industry and use it to study the problem of risk model homogeneity. The model simulates the balance sheets of insurance firms, who collect premiums from clients in return for ensuring them against intermittent, heavy-tailed risks. Firms manage their capital and pay dividends to their investors, and use either reinsurance contracts or cat bonds to hedge their tail risk. The model generates plausible time series of profits and losses and recovers stylized facts, such as the insurance cycle and the emergence of asymmetric, long tailed firm size distributions. We use the model to investigate the problem of risk model homogeneity. Under Solvency II, insurance companies are required to use only certified risk models. This has led to a situation in which only a few firms provide risk models, creating a systemic fragility to the errors in these models. We demonstrate that using too few models increases the risk of nonpayment and default while lowering profits for the industry as a whole. The presence of the reinsurance industry ameliorates the problem but does not remove it. Our results suggest that it would be valuable for regulators to incentivize model diversity. The framework we develop here provides a first step toward a simulation model of the insurance industry for testing policies and strategies for better capital management.

Suggested Citation

  • Farmer, J. Doyne & Heinrich, Torsten & Sabuco, Juan, 2019. "A simulation of the insurance industry: The problem of risk model homogeneity," INET Oxford Working Papers 2019-12, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    • Handle: RePEc:amz:wpaper:2019-12
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.inet.ox.ac.uk/files/working_paper_CAT_Insurance_2019_07_12.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4pa18fd9lf9h59m4vfavfcf61e is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Lamperti, Francesco & Roventini, Andrea & Sani, Amir, 2018. "Agent-based model calibration using machine learning surrogates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 366-389.
    3. Sylvain Barde & Sander van Der Hoog, 2017. "An empirical validation protocol for large-scale agent-based models," Working Papers hal-03458672, HAL.
    4. Broadberry,Stephen & Campbell,Bruce M. S. & Klein,Alexander & Overton,Mark & van Leeuwen,Bas, 2015. "British Economic Growth, 1270–1870," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107070783, September.
    5. Jan Dubbelboer & Igor Nikolic & Katie Jenkins & Jim Hall, 2017. "An Agent-Based Model of Flood Risk and Insurance," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 20(1), pages 1-6.
    6. Giorgio Fagiolo & Mattia Guerini & Francesco Lamperti & Alessio Moneta & Andrea Roventini, 2017. "Validation of Agent-Based Models in Economics and Finance," LEM Papers Series 2017/23, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    7. Emilio C. Venezian & Krupa S. Viswanathan & Iana B. Jucá, 2005. "A “square-root rule” for reinsurance? Evidence from several national markets," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 6(4), pages 319-334, August.
    8. J. David Cummins & Mary A. Weiss, 2014. "Systemic Risk and The U.S. Insurance Sector," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 81(3), pages 489-528, September.
    9. Caccioli, Fabio & Farmer, J. Doyne & Foti, Nick & Rockmore, Daniel, 2015. "Overlapping portfolios, contagion, and financial stability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 50-63.
    10. Denis Kessler, 2014. "Why (Re)insurance is Not Systemic," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 81(3), pages 477-488, September.
    11. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/20hflp7eqn97boh50no50tv67n is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Donovan Platt, 2019. "A Comparison of Economic Agent-Based Model Calibration Methods," Papers 1902.05938, arXiv.org.
    13. Froot, Kenneth A., 2001. "The market for catastrophe risk: a clinical examination," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2-3), pages 529-571, May.
    14. Deutsch, Melinda & Granger, Clive W. J. & Terasvirta, Timo, 1994. "The combination of forecasts using changing weights," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 47-57, June.
    15. Lane, Morton & Mahul, Olivier, 2008. "Catastrophe risk pricing : an empirical analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4765, The World Bank.
    16. Guillaume Plantin, 2006. "Does Reinsurance Need Reinsurers?," Post-Print hal-03416025, HAL.
    17. Guillaume Plantin, 2006. "Does Reinsurance Need Reinsurers?," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 73(1), pages 153-168, March.
    18. Iqbal Owadally & Feng Zhou & Douglas Wright, 2018. "The Insurance Industry as a Complex Social System: Competition, Cycles and Crises," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 21(4), pages 1-2.
    19. Paul Embrechts & Sidney Resnick & Gennady Samorodnitsky, 1999. "Extreme Value Theory as a Risk Management Tool," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 30-41.
    20. Eling, Martin & Pankoke, David, 2013. "Basis Risk, Procylicality, and Systemic Risk in the Solvency II Equity Risk Module," Working Papers on Finance 1306, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    21. J. David Cummins, 2008. "CAT Bonds and Other Risk‐Linked Securities: State of the Market and Recent Developments," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 11(1), pages 23-47, March.
    22. Sojung Carol Park & Xiaoying Xie, 2014. "Reinsurance and Systemic Risk: The Impact of Reinsurer Downgrading on Property–Casualty Insurers," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 81(3), pages 587-622, September.
    23. M Martin Boyer & Théodora Dupont-Courtade, 2015. "The Structure of Reinsurance Contracts," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 40(3), pages 474-492, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sabine Lemoyne de Forges & Ruben Bibas & Stéphane Hallegatte, 2001. "A dynamic model of extreme risk coverage : Resilience and e fficiency in the global reinsurance market," CIRED Working Papers halshs-00800460, HAL.
    2. Subramanian, Ajay & Wang, Jinjing, 2018. "Reinsurance versus securitization of catastrophe risk," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 55-72.
    3. Delli Gatti, Domenico & Grazzini, Jakob, 2020. "Rising to the challenge: Bayesian estimation and forecasting techniques for macroeconomic Agent Based Models," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 875-902.
    4. Marc Gürtler & Martin Hibbeln & Christine Winkelvos, 2016. "The Impact of the Financial Crisis and Natural Catastrophes on CAT Bonds," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 83(3), pages 579-612, September.
    5. Eckhard Platen & David Taylor, 2016. "Loading Pricing of Catastrophe Bonds and Other Long-Dated, Insurance-Type Contracts," Research Paper Series 379, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    6. Götze, Tobias & Gürtler, Marc, 2020. "Risk transfer and moral hazard: An examination on the market for insurance-linked securities," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 758-777.
    7. Platt, Donovan, 2020. "A comparison of economic agent-based model calibration methods," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    8. Gürtler, M. & Hibbeln, M. & Winkelvos, C., 2012. "The impact of the financial crisis and natural catastrophes on CAT bonds," Working Papers IF40V1, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Institute of Finance.
    9. J. David Cummins & Philippe Trainar, 2009. "Securitization, Insurance, and Reinsurance," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 463-492, September.
    10. Kukacka, Jiri & Sacht, Stephen, 2023. "Estimation of heuristic switching in behavioral macroeconomic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    11. Olufemi Adebowale Abass, 2019. "Empirical Analysis of Reinsurance Dependence on the Profitability of General Insurance Business in Nigeria," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 5(4), pages 36-43, December.
    12. Donovan Platt, 2019. "A Comparison of Economic Agent-Based Model Calibration Methods," Papers 1902.05938, arXiv.org.
    13. J. David Cummins & Mary A. Weiss, 2009. "Convergence of Insurance and Financial Markets: Hybrid and Securitized Risk‐Transfer Solutions," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 493-545, September.
    14. Martin Eling & Ruo Jia, 2017. "Recent Research Developments Affecting Nonlife Insurance—The CAS Risk Premium Project 2014 Update," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 20(1), pages 63-77, March.
    15. Chatoro, Marian & Mitra, Sovan & Pantelous, Athanasios A. & Shao, Jia, 2023. "Catastrophe bond pricing in the primary market: The issuer effect and pricing factors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    16. Aduloju Sunday Adekunle & Ajemunigbohun Sunday Stephen, 2017. "Reinsurance and Performance of the Ceding Companies: The Nigerian Insurance Industry Experience," Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 31(1), pages 19-29, August.
    17. Lamperti, Francesco & Bosetti, Valentina & Roventini, Andrea & Tavoni, Massimo & Treibich, Tania, 2021. "Three green financial policies to address climate risks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    18. Götze, Tobias & Gürtler, Marc, 2020. "Hard markets, hard times: On the inefficiency of the CAT bond market," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    19. Kukacka, Jiri & Jang, Tae-Seok & Sacht, Stephen, 2018. "On the estimation of behavioral macroeconomic models via simulated maximum likelihood," Economics Working Papers 2018-11, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    20. Barde, Sylvain, 2020. "Macroeconomic simulation comparison with a multivariate extension of the Markov information criterion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:amz:wpaper:2019-12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: INET Oxford admin team (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inoxfuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.