[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/usdami/329074.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

International Food Security Assessment, 2022–32

Author

Listed:
  • Zereyesus, Yacob Abrehe
  • Cardell, Lila
  • Valdes, Constanza
  • Ajewole, Kayode
  • Zeng, Wendy
  • Beckman, Jayson
  • Ivanic, Maros
  • Hashad, Reem N.
  • Jelliffe, Jeremy
  • Kee, Jennifer
Abstract
Millions of people around the world are food insecure and do not have access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs for an active and healthy life. Using a demand-driven international food security assessment model, this report helps the U.S. Department of Agriculture and its stakeholders estimate food security trends in 77 low- and middle-income countries. Food security in countries covered in the International Food Security Assessment (IFSA) report is expected to deteriorate in 2022 due to the continued effects of the Coronavirus 2019 pandemic and high food commodity prices that have been intensified by the Russian military invasion of Ukraine. The number of food insecure people in 2022 is estimated at 1.3 billion in the 77 low- and middle-income countries covered by this assessment, an increase of 9.8 percent (118.7 million people) from the 2021 estimate. This increase implies that 32.9 percent of the population of the countries in the assessment may be unable to consume 2,100 kilocalories a day, an average caloric level necessary to sustain a healthy and active lifestyle. However, over the next 10 years, food security is projected to improve in all countries analyzed by this assessment. By 2032, the number of food insecure people in the 77 IFSA countries is projected to be 577.3 million and falling to 12.4 percent of the population (62.5 percent less than in 2022). Given the evolving nature of the conflict in Ukraine and a rapidly changing global macroeconomic environment, the estimation results presented in this report are more representative of a conservative scenario.

Suggested Citation

  • Zereyesus, Yacob Abrehe & Cardell, Lila & Valdes, Constanza & Ajewole, Kayode & Zeng, Wendy & Beckman, Jayson & Ivanic, Maros & Hashad, Reem N. & Jelliffe, Jeremy & Kee, Jennifer, 2022. "International Food Security Assessment, 2022–32," USDA Miscellaneous 329074, United States Department of Agriculture.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:usdami:329074
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.329074
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/329074/files/gfa-33.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.329074?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Beghin, John C. & Meade, Birgit Gisela Saager & Rosen, Stacey, 2014. "A Consistent Food Demand Framework for International Food Security Assessment," 2014: Food, Resources and Conflict, December 7-9, 2014. San Diego, California 197167, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    2. Muhammad, Andrew & Meade, Birgit Gisela Saager & Regmi, Anita & Seale, James L., 2011. "International Evidence on Food Consumption Patterns: An Update Using 2005 International Comparison Program Data," Technical Bulletins 120252, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    3. Beghin, John & Meade, Birgit & Rosen, Stacey, 2017. "A food demand framework for International Food Security Assessment," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 827-842.
    4. John Muellbauer, 1975. "Aggregation, Income Distribution and Consumer Demand," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 42(4), pages 525-543.
    5. Deaton,Angus & Muellbauer,John, 1980. "Economics and Consumer Behavior," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521296762, September.
    6. Muhammad, Andrew & Meade, Birgit Gisela Saager, 2011. "International Evidence on Food Consumption Patterns: An Update Using 2005 International Comparison Program Data," Technical Bulletins 120252, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Michels, Jacob & Beghin, John, 2023. "Accounting for the Evolution of Sedentarism in Food Security Assessment," 2023: The Future of (Ag-) Trade and Trade Governance in Times of Economic Sanctions and Declining Multilateralism, December 10-12, Clearwater Beach, FL 339514, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Karen Thome & Birgit Meade & Stacey Rosen & John C. Beghin, 2016. "Assessing Food Security in Ethiopia with USDA ERS's New Food Security Modeling Approach," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 16-wp567, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    2. Beghin, John C. & Meade, Birgit Gisela Saager & Rosen, Stacey, 2014. "A Consistent Food Demand Framework for International Food Security Assessment," 2014: Food, Resources and Conflict, December 7-9, 2014. San Diego, California 197167, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    3. Mun Ho & Wolfgang Britz & Ruth Delzeit & Florian Leblanc & Roberto Roson & Franziska Schuenemann & Matthias Weitzel, 2020. "Modelling Consumption and Constructing Long-Term Baselines in Final Demand," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 63-108, June.
    4. Kira Lancker & Julia Bronnmann, 2022. "Substitution Preferences for Fish in Senegal," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 82(4), pages 1015-1045, August.
    5. Clements, Kenneth W. & Gao, Grace, 2015. "The Rotterdam demand model half a century on," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 91-103.
    6. Lancker, Kira & Bronmann, Julia, 2020. "Quantifying consumers’ love for marine biodiversity," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304214, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Felix Baquedano & Jeremy Jelliffe & Jayson Beckman & Maros Ivanic & Yacob Zereyesus & Michael Johnson, 2022. "Food security implications for low‐ and middle‐income countries under agricultural input reduction: The case of the European Union's farm to fork and biodiversity strategies," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(4), pages 1942-1954, December.
    8. Botosaru, Irene & Muris, Chris & Pendakur, Krishna, 2023. "Identification of time-varying transformation models with fixed effects, with an application to unobserved heterogeneity in resource shares," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 232(2), pages 576-597.
    9. Porteous, Obie, 2022. "Reverse Dutch disease with trade costs: Prospects for agriculture in Africa's oil-rich economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    10. Thibault Fally & James Sayre, 2018. "Commodity Trade Matters," 2018 Meeting Papers 172, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Onil Banerjee & Martin Cicowiez & Marcia Macedo & Žiga Malek & Peter Verburg & Sean Goodwin & Renato Vargas & Ludmila Rattis & Paulo M. Brando & Michael T. Coe & Christopher Neill & Octavio Damiani, 2020. "An Amazon Tipping Point: The Economic and Environmental Fallout," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0292, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    12. Pablo D. Fajgelbaum & Amit K. Khandelwal, 2016. "Measuring the Unequal Gains from Trade," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(3), pages 1113-1180.
    13. Wunderlich, A.C. & Kohler, A., 2018. "Using empirical Armington and demand elasticities in computable equilibrium models: An illustration with the CAPRI model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 70-80.
    14. Seale, James L. & Solano, Alexis A., 2012. "The changing demand for energy in rich and poor countries over 25years," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1834-1844.
    15. Yosuke Munesue & Toshihiko Masui & Takesato Fushima, 2015. "The effects of reducing food losses and food waste on global food insecurity, natural resources, and greenhouse gas emissions," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 17(1), pages 43-77, January.
    16. Beckman, Jayson & Ivanic, Maros & Jelliffe, Jeremy L & Baquedano, Felix G & Scott, Sara G, 2020. "Economic and Food Security Impacts of Agricultural Input Reduction Under the European Union Green Deal’s Farm to Fork and Biodiversity Strategies," Economic Brief 327231, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    17. Susan Olivia & John Gibson, 2013. "Using Engel curves to measure CPI bias for Indonesia," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(1), pages 85-101, April.
    18. Ramon Ballester & Jackeline Velazco & Ricard Rigall-I-Torrent, 2015. "Effects of the Great Recession on Immigrants’ Household Consumption in Spain," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 771-797, September.
    19. Cicowiez, Martin & Akinyemi, Opeyemi & Sesan, Temilade & Adu, Omobola & Sokeye, Babajide, 2022. "Gender-differentiated impacts of a Rural Electrification Policy in Nigeria," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    20. Gerval, Adam & Hansen, James, 2022. "COVID-19 Working Paper: Single Commodity Export Dependence and the Impacts of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa," USDA Miscellaneous 323866, United States Department of Agriculture.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crop Production/Industries; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; International Development; International Relations/Trade; Public Economics;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:usdami:329074. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.usda.gov .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.