[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/pugtwp/331835.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Impact of the global crisis on the achievement of the MDGs in Latin America

Author

Listed:
  • Sánchez, Marco V.
  • Vos, Rob
Abstract
Progress towards the MDGs is expected to slow as a consequence of the global economic downturn. This study uses a dynamic-recursive CGE analysis for six Latin American countries and finds that a projected recession in 2009-2010, followed by a slow and gradual recovery, would put some of the region’s lowincome countries substantially further off track towards several of the goals. Extra spending of 1.5 to 2.0 per cent of GDP per year until 2015 would be required to achieve the goals, and this would come on top of another 2 to 7 per cent of GDP per annum of additional spending estimated in absence of the crisis. Additional costs owing to the crisis would stretch government finances should recovery and sustained growth not set in swiftly. At the same time, however, the additional public spending on education, health and water and sanitation is shown to contribute to recovery as part of a counter-cyclical response, which would be stronger if complemented by investments in public infrastructure. For full recovery, however, other factors need to contribute as well, especially the resumption of external demand which in turn would require globally concerted stimulus measures to take effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Sánchez, Marco V. & Vos, Rob, 2009. "Impact of the global crisis on the achievement of the MDGs in Latin America," Conference papers 331835, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:331835
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/331835/files/4343.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hopkins, Michael & Van der Hoeven, Rolph, 1982. "Policy analysis in a socioeconomic model of basic needs applied to four countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 425-455, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ziesemer, Thomas H.W., 2010. "The impact of the credit crisis on poor developing countries: Growth, worker remittances, accumulation and migration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1230-1245, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rob Vos & Marco V. Sánchez & Cornelia Kaldewei, 2010. "Latin America and the Caribbean’s challenge to reach the MDGs: financing options and trade-offs," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Marco V. Sánchez & Rob Vos & Enrique Ganuza & Hans Lofgren & Carolina Díaz-Bonilla (ed.), Public Policies for Human Development, chapter 2, pages 17-69, Palgrave Macmillan.
    2. Krishna Mazumdar, 2000. "Causal Flow between Human Well-being and per Capita Real Gross Domestic Product," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 297-313, June.
    3. HENK C. Bas, 1983. "Some Simple Thoughts on Model Building for Developing Countries," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 22(2), pages 63-71.
    4. Rodrigue, André, 1986. "La contribution de l’amélioration du bien-être au processus de croissance dans les pays en développement," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 62(1), pages 64-87, mars.
    5. Lofgren, Hans & Cicowiez, Martin & Diaz-Bonilla, Carolina, 2013. "MAMS – A Computable General Equilibrium Model for Developing Country Strategy Analysis," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 159-276, Elsevier.
    6. Evans, David & van der Geest, Willem, 2009. "EU-China: Win-Win Trade Liberalization and Stimulus Scenarios?," Conference papers 331837, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Public Economics;

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D3 - Microeconomics - - Distribution
    • I3 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty
    • F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:331835. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gtpurus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.