[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/iwmirp/201006.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Global water demand projections: past, present and future

Author

Listed:
  • Amarasinghe, Upali A.
  • Smakhtin, Vladimir
Abstract
A review of global water demand projections (WDPs) show substantial overpredictions or under-predictions. The pre-1990 WDPs, with population as the main driver of change, overpredicted current water use by 20 to 130%. The post-1990 WDPs, with sophisticated modeling frameworks, show substantial underestimation under the ‘business-as-usual’ scenarios and are more downward biased under sustainable scenarios. Overall, the value of long-term country-level projections in global WDPs is inadequate for local water resource planning. To increase the accuracy and value of global WDPs, future WDPs should take into account the spatial variation and influence of rapidly changing key exogenous and endogenous drivers of water demand in different sectors across and within countries, and provide a sensitivity analysis of projections.

Suggested Citation

  • Amarasinghe, Upali A. & Smakhtin, Vladimir, 2014. "Global water demand projections: past, present and future," IWMI Reports 201006, International Water Management Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:iwmirp:201006
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.201006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/201006/files/rr156.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.201006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Md. Islam & Taikan Oki & Shinjiro Kanae & Naota Hanasaki & Yasushi Agata & Kei Yoshimura, 2007. "A grid-based assessment of global water scarcity including virtual water trading," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(1), pages 19-33, January.
    2. Molden, David, 2007. "Water for food, water for life: a comprehensive assessment of water management in agriculture: summary. In Russian," IWMI Books, Reports H041260, International Water Management Institute.
    3. P. C. D. Milly & K. A. Dunne & A. V. Vecchia, 2005. "Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate," Nature, Nature, vol. 438(7066), pages 347-350, November.
    4. Amarasinghe, Upali & Shah, Tushaar & Turral, Hugh & Anand, B. K., 2007. "India’s water future to 2025-2050: Business-as-usual scenario and deviations," IWMI Research Reports H040852, International Water Management Institute.
    5. Molden, David, 2007. "Water for food, water for life: a comprehensive assessment of water management in agriculture: summary. In Arabic," IWMI Books, Reports H041261, International Water Management Institute.
    6. World Bank, 2014. "World Development Indicators 2014," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 18237.
    7. Seckler, David & Amarasinghe, Upali A. & Molden, David J. & de Silva, Radhika & Barker, Randolph, 1998. "World water demand and supply, 1990 to 2025: scenarios and issues," IWMI Research Reports 61108, International Water Management Institute.
    8. Molden, David, 2007. "Water for food, water for life: a comprehensive assessment of water management in agriculture," IWMI Books, Reports H040193, International Water Management Institute.
    9. World Bank, 2012. "World Development Indicators 2012," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6014.
    10. Molden, David, 2007. "Water for food, water for life: a comprehensive assessment of water management in agriculture: summary," IWMI Books, Reports H039769, International Water Management Institute.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Narayanamoorthy, A & Bhattarai, M & Jothi, P, 2018. "An assessment of the economic impact of drip irrigation in vegetable production in India," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 31(1).
    2. Phong Tung Nguyen & Duong Hai Ha & Abolfazl Jaafari & Huu Duy Nguyen & Tran Van Phong & Nadhir Al-Ansari & Indra Prakash & Hiep Van Le & Binh Thai Pham, 2020. "Groundwater Potential Mapping Combining Artificial Neural Network and Real AdaBoost Ensemble Technique: The DakNong Province Case-study, Vietnam," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(7), pages 1-20, April.
    3. Kusum Pandey & Shiv Kumar & Anurag Malik & Alban Kuriqi, 2020. "Artificial Neural Network Optimized with a Genetic Algorithm for Seasonal Groundwater Table Depth Prediction in Uttar Pradesh, India," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-24, October.
    4. David D. J. Antia, 2016. "ZVI (Fe 0 ) Desalination: Stability of Product Water," Resources, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-47, March.
    5. Arowoshegbe, Amos & Emeni, Francis & Uniamikogbo, Emmanuel, 2018. "Impact Of Water Accounting On Water Supply In Nigeria," International Journal of Contemporary Accounting Issues-IJCAI (formerly International Journal of Accounting & Finance IJAF), The Institute of Chartered Accountants of Nigeria (ICAN), vol. 7(2), pages 160-183, December.
    6. A. Narayanamoorthy & N. Devika & M. Bhattarai, 2016. "More Crop and Profit per Drop of Water: Drip Irrigation for Empowering Distressed Small Farmers," IIM Kozhikode Society & Management Review, , vol. 5(1), pages 83-90, January.
    7. Liu, Jing & Hertel, Thomas & Lammers, Richard & Prusevich, Alexander & Baldos, Uris & Grogan, Danielle & Frolking, Steve, 2016. "Achieving Sustainable Irrigation Water Withdrawals: Global Impacts on Food Production and Land Use," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235503, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Caldera, Upeksha & Breyer, Christian, 2020. "Strengthening the global water supply through a decarbonised global desalination sector and improved irrigation systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    9. Phong Tung Nguyen & Duong Hai Ha & Huu Duy Nguyen & Tran Van Phong & Phan Trong Trinh & Nadhir Al-Ansari & Hiep Van Le & Binh Thai Pham & Lanh Si Ho & Indra Prakash, 2020. "Improvement of Credal Decision Trees Using Ensemble Frameworks for Groundwater Potential Modeling," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-28, March.
    10. Liu, Jing & Hertel, Thomas & Lammers, Richard & Prusevich, Alexander & Baldos, Uris Lantz & Grogan, Danielle & Frolking, Steve, 2017. "Achieving sustainable irrigation water withdrawals: global impacts on food security and land use," Conference papers 332848, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    11. Xiao-Jun Wang & Jian-Yun Zhang & Shamsuddin Shahid & Wei Xie & Chao-Yang Du & Xiao-Chuan Shang & Xu Zhang, 2018. "Modeling domestic water demand in Huaihe River Basin of China under climate change and population dynamics," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 911-924, April.
    12. Nassima Amiri & Rachid Lahlali & Said Amiri & Moussa EL Jarroudi & Mohammed Yacoubi Khebiza & Mohammed Messouli, 2021. "Development of an Integrated Model to Assess the Impact of Agricultural Practices and Land Use on Agricultural Production in Morocco under Climate Stress over the Next Twenty Years," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-23, October.
    13. Yufeng Luo & Seydou Traore & Xinwei Lyu & Weiguang Wang & Ying Wang & Yongyu Xie & Xiyun Jiao & Guy Fipps, 2015. "Medium Range Daily Reference Evapotranspiration Forecasting by Using ANN and Public Weather Forecasts," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(10), pages 3863-3876, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Amarasinghe, Upali A. & Sharma, Bharat R., 2009. "Water productivity of food grains in India: exploring potential improvements," Book Chapters,, International Water Management Institute.
    2. Giordano, Meredith & Turral, H. & Scheierling, S. M. & Treguer, D. O. & McCornick, Peter G, 2017. "Beyond “More Crop per Drop”: evolving thinking on agricultural water productivity," IWMI Research Reports 257962, International Water Management Institute.
    3. Christopher O. AKINBILE & Andrew E. ERAZUA & Toju E. BABALOLA & Fidelis O. AJIBADE, 2016. "Environmental implications of animal wastes pollution on agricultural soil and water quality," Soil and Water Research, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 11(3), pages 172-180.
    4. Cunha, Henrique & Loureiro, Dália & Sousa, Gonçalo & Covas, Dídia & Alegre, Helena, 2019. "A comprehensive water balance methodology for collective irrigation systems," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 223(C), pages 1-1.
    5. Batidzirai, B. & Smeets, E.M.W. & Faaij, A.P.C., 2012. "Harmonising bioenergy resource potentials—Methodological lessons from review of state of the art bioenergy potential assessments," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(9), pages 6598-6630.
    6. Tiziano Gomiero, 2016. "Soil Degradation, Land Scarcity and Food Security: Reviewing a Complex Challenge," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-41, March.
    7. Feng Huang & Baoguo Li, 2020. "What is the Redline Water Withdrawal for Crop Production in China?—Projection to 2030 Derived from the Past Twenty-Year Trajectory," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-14, May.
    8. Gong, Daozhi & Mei, Xurong & Hao, Weiping & Wang, Hanbo & Caylor, Kelly K., 2017. "Comparison of ET partitioning and crop coefficients between partial plastic mulched and non-mulched maize fields," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 23-34.
    9. Holland, Jonathan E. & Luck, Gary W. & Max Finlayson, C., 2015. "Threats to food production and water quality in the Murray–Darling Basin of Australia," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 55-70.
    10. repec:kqi:journl:2017-2-1-2 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Andrew J. Wiltshire & Gillian Kay & Jemma L. Gornall & Richard A. Betts, 2013. "The Impact of Climate, CO 2 and Population on Regional Food and Water Resources in the 2050s," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 5(5), pages 1-23, May.
    12. Rosa Francaviglia & Claudia Di Bene, 2019. "Deficit Drip Irrigation in Processing Tomato Production in the Mediterranean Basin. A Data Analysis for Italy," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-14, April.
    13. Malin Falkenmark, 2013. "Adapting to climate change: towards societal water security in dry-climate countries," International Journal of Water Resources Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 123-136, June.
    14. Kherbache, Nabil & Oukaci, Kamal, 2020. "Assessment of capital expenditure in achieving sanitation-related MDG targets and the uncertainties of the SDG targets in Algeria," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 19(C).
    15. Tarjuelo, José M. & Rodriguez-Diaz, Juan A. & Abadía, Ricardo & Camacho, Emilio & Rocamora, Carmen & Moreno, Miguel A., 2015. "Efficient water and energy use in irrigation modernization: Lessons from Spanish case studies," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 67-77.
    16. Gebreegziabher, Z. & Mekonnen, A. & Beyene, A.D. & Hagos, F., 2018. "Valuation of access to irrigation water in rural Ethiopia: application of choice experiment and contingent valuation methods," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277168, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    17. Zareena Begum Irfan & Bina Gupta, 2015. "To Consume or to Conserve: Examining Water Conservation Model for Wheat Cultivation in India," Working Papers 2015-101, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    18. Malte Müller & Jens Rommel & Christian Kimmich, 2018. "Farmers’ Adoption of Irrigation Technologies: Experimental Evidence from a Coordination Game with Positive Network Externalities in India," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 19(2), pages 119-139, May.
    19. Unknown, 2012. "Water for wealth and food security: supporting farmer-driven investments in agricultural water management. Synthesis report of the AgWater Solutions Project," IWMI Reports 158834, International Water Management Institute.
    20. Michael Bamidele Fakoya & Emmanuel O. Imuezerua, 2021. "Improving water pricing decisions through material flow cost accounting model: a case study of the Politsi Water Treatment Scheme in South Africa," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 2243-2260, February.
    21. Mapedza, Everisto & Haileslassie, A. & Hagos, Fitsum & McCartney, Matthew & Awulachew, Seleshi Bekele & Tafesse, T., 2009. "Transboundary water governance institutional architecture: reflections from Ethiopia and Sudan," IWMI Conference Proceedings 212439, International Water Management Institute.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agricultural and Food Policy; Production Economics;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:iwmirp:201006. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwmiclk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.