[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/esprep/122139.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Looking For Multiple Equilibria In Russian Urban System

Author

Listed:
  • Mikhailova, Tatiana
Abstract
This paper studies the effect of forced labor relocation in GULAG, and the losses during the WWII on the long-term dynamics of city growth in the USSR. The main goal is to test whether the impact of Stalinist policies and the WWII on economic geography of the USSR persists in long run, and whether, in response to these policies, the long-term dynamics of the Soviet city growth shows evidence of multiple equilibria. I find that WWII does not have a statistically significant long-term effect on city growth, controlling for other factors, while GULAG system does. The growth of an average city in 1960s exhibits partial mean-reversion after the shocks of 1930s-1950s. The dynamics is consistent with multiple equilibria hypothesis: cities that received a lot of investment (as measured by the GULAG population) in the 1930s-1950s, have a higher chance not to revert to the previous trajectory, but to continue growing, while neglected cities are more likely to decline.

Suggested Citation

  • Mikhailova, Tatiana, 2015. "Looking For Multiple Equilibria In Russian Urban System," EconStor Preprints 122139, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:esprep:122139
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/122139/1/prepeng%20%2820%29.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephen J. Redding & Daniel M. Sturm & Nikolaus Wolf, 2011. "History and Industry Location: Evidence from German Airports," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(3), pages 814-831, August.
    2. Donald R. Davis & David E. Weinstein, 2008. "A Search For Multiple Equilibria In Urban Industrial Structure," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1), pages 29-65, February.
    3. Krugman, Paul, 1991. "Increasing Returns and Economic Geography," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 483-499, June.
    4. Bosker, Maarten & Brakman, Steven & Garretsen, Harry & Schramm, Marc, 2007. "Looking for multiple equilibria when geography matters: German city growth and the WWII shock," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 152-169, January.
    5. Donald R. Davis & David E. Weinstein, 2002. "Bones, Bombs, and Break Points: The Geography of Economic Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1269-1289, December.
    6. Ira N. Gang & Robert C. Stuart, 1999. "Mobility where mobility is illegal: Internal migration and city growth in the Soviet Union," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 12(1), pages 117-134.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Davidson Natalia Borisovna & Mariev Oleg Svyatoslavovitch, 2015. "The impact of spatial concentration on enterprise performance," Экономика региона, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное бюджетное учреждение науки «Институт экономики Уральского отделения Российской академии наук», issue 4, pages 95-105.
    2. Alexander S. Skorobogatov, 2016. "Spatial Equilibrium Approach to the Analysis of Income Differentials Across Russian Cities," HSE Working papers WP BRP 149/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    3. Oleksandr Shepotylo, 2012. "Cities in Transition," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 54(3), pages 661-688, September.
    4. Vera Ivanova, 2015. "The well-being of Russian cities: does location matter?," ERSA conference papers ersa15p956, European Regional Science Association.
    5. Andrey Pushkarev & Oleg Mariev & Natalia Davidson, 2020. "The effect of spatial concentration on the business performance in various types of Russian cities," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 10913084, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mikhailova, T., 2015. "Multiple equilibria in the Russian cities," Published Papers 010915, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    2. Mikhailova, Tatiana, 2012. "Gulag, WWII and the Long-run Patterns of Soviet City Growth," EconStor Preprints 121963, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    3. Stephen J. Redding, 2010. "The Empirics Of New Economic Geography," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(1), pages 297-311, February.
    4. Stephen J. Redding & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2017. "Quantitative Spatial Economics," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 9(1), pages 21-58, September.
    5. Berger, Thor & Enflo, Kerstin, 2017. "Locomotives of local growth: The short- and long-term impact of railroads in Sweden," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 124-138.
    6. Wahl, Fabian, 2016. "Does medieval trade still matter? Historical trade centers, agglomeration and contemporary economic development," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 50-60.
    7. Stephen J. Redding, 2013. "Economic Geography: A Review of the Theoretical and Empirical Literature," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Daniel Bernhofen & Rod Falvey & David Greenaway & Udo Kreickemeier (ed.), Palgrave Handbook of International Trade, chapter 16, pages 497-531, Palgrave Macmillan.
    8. Duc A. Nguyen & Steven Brakman & Harry Garretsen & Tristan Kohl, 2024. "Mean Reversion of the German City System After the WWII Bombing of Cities: What Is the Mean?," CESifo Working Paper Series 11423, CESifo.
    9. Evgeniya Kolomak, 2020. "Spatial development of the post‐Soviet Russia: Tendencies and factors," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(4), pages 579-594, August.
    10. Hanlon, W.Walker & Heblich, Stephan, 2022. "History and urban economics," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    11. Xu, Hangtian, 2016. "Multiple Equilibria in the Urban Spatial Structure: Evidence from the Hanshin Earthquake," MPRA Paper 75219, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Maria Florencia Granato, 2011. "REGIONAL NEW ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY (refereed paper)," ERSA conference papers ersa10p747, European Regional Science Association.
    13. Mikhailova, Tatiana (Михайлова, Татьяна), 2018. "Evacuation of Industry During the Great Patriotic War and the Growth of Russian Cities: Numerical Analysis [Эвакуация Промышленности В Годы Великой Отечественной Войны И Рост Городов России: Числен," Working Papers 031835, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    14. Kwok Tong Soo, 2014. "Zipf, Gibrat and geography: Evidence from China, India and Brazil," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 93(1), pages 159-181, March.
    15. Bosker, Maarten & Brakman, Steven & Garretsen, Harry & Schramm, Marc, 2008. "A century of shocks: The evolution of the German city size distribution 1925-1999," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 330-347, July.
    16. Christian Ochsner, 2017. "Dismantled once, diverged forever? A quasi-natural experiment of Red Army misdeeds in post-WWII Europe," ifo Working Paper Series 240, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    17. Seyed Peyman Asadi & Ahmad Jafari Samimi, 2019. "Lagging-behind Areas as a Challenge to the Regional Development Strategy: What Insights can New and Evolutionary Economic Geography Offer?," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 1923, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Jul 2019.
    18. David Cuberes & Rafael González-Val, 2017. "The effect of the Spanish Reconquest on Iberian cities," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 58(3), pages 375-416, May.
    19. Testa, Patrick A., 2021. "Shocks and the spatial distribution of economic activity: The role of institutions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 791-810.
    20. Stephen J. Redding & Daniel M. Sturm & Nikolaus Wolf, 2011. "History and Industry Location: Evidence from German Airports," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(3), pages 814-831, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic geography; cities; USSR; GULAG;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • P25 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:esprep:122139. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/zbwkide.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.