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Sovereign Risk, Private Credit, and Stabilization Policies

Author

Listed:
  • Pancrazi, Roberto

    (Department of Economics University of Warwick)

  • Seoane, Hernan D

    (Department of Economics, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid,)

  • Vukotic, Marija

    (Department of Economics University of Warwick)

Abstract
In this paper we examine the impact of bailout policies in small open economies that are subject to financial frictions. We extend standard endogenous default models in two ways. First, we augment the government’s choice set with a bailout option. In addition to the standard choice of defaulting or repaying the debt, a government can also choose to ask for a third-party bailout, which comes at a cost of an imposed borrowing limit. Second, we introduce financial frictions and a financial intermediation channel, which tie conditions on the private credit market to the conditions on the sovereign credit market. This link has been very strong in European countries during the recent sovereign crisis. We find that the existence of a bailout option reduces sovereign spreads and, through the described link, private credit rates as well. The implementation of a rescue program reduces output losses and increases welfare, measured in consumption equivalent terms. Moreover, bailout benefits emerge even when a government only has the option of asking for a bailout, but does not take advantage of it.

Suggested Citation

  • Pancrazi, Roberto & Seoane, Hernan D & Vukotic, Marija, 2015. "Sovereign Risk, Private Credit, and Stabilization Policies," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1069, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:wrk:warwec:1069
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    Cited by:

    1. Romanos Priftis & Srec̆ko Zimic, 2021. "Sources of Borrowing and Fiscal Multipliers [Emerging market business cycles: the cycle is the trend]," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(633), pages 498-519.
    2. Hernan Seoane, 2016. "Time-varying volatility, default and the sovereign risk premium," 2016 Meeting Papers 1132, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Enrique R. Casares, 2015. "A relationship between external public debt and economic growth," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 30(2), pages 219-243.
    4. Faia, Ester, 2016. "Sovereign Risk, Bank Funding and Investors’ Pessimism," CEPR Discussion Papers 11340, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Damiano Sandri, 2018. "Dealing with Systemic Sovereign Debt Crises: Fiscal Consolidation, Bail-Ins, or Bail-Outs?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 66(4), pages 665-693, December.
    6. Kolev, Atanas & Maurin, Laurent & Ségol, Matthieu, 2019. "What firms don't like about bank loans: New evidence from survey data," EIB Working Papers 2019/07, European Investment Bank (EIB).
    7. Guilherme Bandeira, 2018. "Fiscal transfers in a monetary union with sovereign risk," Working Papers 1807, Banco de España.
    8. Atanas Kolev & Laurent Maurin & Matthieu Segol, 2022. "What Makes Firms Dissatisfied with Their Bank Loans: New Evidence from Survey Data," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 61(3), pages 407-430, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Default ; Sovereign Spread ; Private Spread ; Bailouts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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