[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/upf/upfgen/1378.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Banks, government bonds, and default: what do the data say?

Author

Abstract
We analyze empirically the holdings of sovereign bonds by over 20,000 banks in 191 countries, and the role of these bonds in 20 sovereign defaults over 1998-2012. We document two robust facts. First, banks hold many government bonds (on average 9% of their assets) in normal times, particularly banks that make fewer loans and operate in less financially-developed countries. Second, within a country and during a default year, bank’s holdings of sovereign bonds correlate negatively with subsequent lending. Quantitatively, the average exposure to bonds is approximately associated with a 7-percentage point lower growth rate of loans relative to a bank holding no bonds. This negative correlation is stronger in defaulting countries that are economically and institutionally more developed. These results indicate that the “dangerous embrace” between banks and their government plays a key role in many sovereign defaults around the world, and its strength depends on local conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicola Gennaioli & Alberto Martin & Stefano Rossi, 2013. "Banks, government bonds, and default: what do the data say?," Economics Working Papers 1378, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2017.
    • Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:1378
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://econ-papers.upf.edu/papers/1378.pdf
    File Function: Whole Paper
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Patrick Bolton & Olivier Jeanne, 2011. "Sovereign Default Risk and Bank Fragility in Financially Integrated Economies," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(2), pages 162-194, June.
    2. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2012. "The Aggregate Demand for Treasury Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(2), pages 233-267.
    3. Gelos, R. Gaston & Sahay, Ratna & Sandleris, Guido, 2011. "Sovereign borrowing by developing countries: What determines market access?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 243-254, March.
    4. Arteta, Carlos & Hale, Galina, 2008. "Sovereign debt crises and credit to the private sector," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 53-69, January.
    5. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Sorensen, Bent & Yesiltas, Sevcan, 2012. "Leverage across firms, banks, and countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 284-298.
    6. Eduardo Borensztein & Ugo Panizza, 2009. "The Costs of Sovereign Default," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(4), pages 683-741, November.
    7. Fernando Broner & Alberto Martin & Jaume Ventura, 2010. "Sovereign Risk and Secondary Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(4), pages 1523-1555, September.
    8. Iyer, Rajkamal & Da-Rocha-Lopes, Samuel & Peydró, José-Luis & Schoar, Antoinette, 2014. "Interbank Liquidity Crunch and the Firm Credit Crunch: Evidence from the 2007-2009 Crisis," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 27(1), pages 347-372.
    9. Djankov, Simeon & McLiesh, Caralee & Shleifer, Andrei, 2007. "Private credit in 129 countries," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 299-329, May.
    10. Stijn Claessens & Luc Laeven, 2004. "What drives bank competition? Some international evidence," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 563-592.
    11. Nicola Gennaioli & Alberto Martin & Stefano Rossi, 2014. "Sovereign Default, Domestic Banks, and Financial Institutions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(2), pages 819-866, April.
    12. Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Végh & Andrés Velasco (ed.), 2008. "Money, Crises, and Transition: Essays in Honor of Guillermo A. Calvo," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262182661, April.
    13. Niccolò Battistini & Marco Pagano & Saverio Simonelli, 2014. "Systemic risk, sovereign yields and bank exposures in the euro crisis [Real effects of the sovereign debt crises in Europe: evidence from syndicated loans]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 29(78), pages 203-251.
    14. Guido Sandleris, 2016. "The Costs of Sovereign Default: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 1-27, April.
    15. Viral V. Acharya & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2013. "Sovereign Debt, Government Myopia, and the Financial Sector," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(6), pages 1526-1560.
    16. Andrews,Donald W. K. & Stock,James H. (ed.), 2005. "Identification and Inference for Econometric Models," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521844413, September.
    17. Robin Greenwood & Dimitri Vayanos, 2014. "Bond Supply and Excess Bond Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(3), pages 663-713.
    18. Andrea Pescatori & Amadou N R Sy, 2007. "Are Debt Crises Adequately Defined?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 54(2), pages 306-337, June.
    19. Comelli, Fabio, 2012. "Emerging market sovereign bond spreads: Estimation and back-testing," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 598-625.
    20. Mr. Michael Kumhof & Mr. Evan C Tanner, 2005. "Government Debt: A Key Role in Financial Intermediation," IMF Working Papers 2005/057, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Mengus, Eric, 2018. "Honoring sovereign debt or bailing out domestic residents? The limits to bailouts," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 14-24.
    22. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    23. Mengus, E., 2014. "Honoring Sovereign Debt or Bailing Out Domestic Residents: A Theory of Internal Costs of Default," Working papers 480, Banque de France.
    24. Carmen M. Reinhart & M. Belen Sbrancia1, 2015. "The liquidation of government debt," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 30(82), pages 291-333.
    25. Jiménez, Gabriel & Ongena, Steven & Peydró, José-Luis & Saurina, Jesús, 2012. "Credit Supply and Monetary Policy: Identifying the Bank Balance-Sheet Channel with Loan Applications," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(5), pages 2301-2326.
    26. Jeremy C. Stein & Anil K. Kashyap, 2000. "What Do a Million Observations on Banks Say about the Transmission of Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 407-428, June.
    27. Broner, Fernando & Didier, Tatiana & Erce, Aitor & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2013. "Gross capital flows: Dynamics and crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 113-133.
    28. Cristina Arellano, 2008. "Default Risk and Income Fluctuations in Emerging Economies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 690-712, June.
    29. Daniel Paravisini, 2008. "Local Bank Financial Constraints and Firm Access to External Finance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(5), pages 2161-2193, October.
    30. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1676-1706, August.
    31. Sturzenegger, Federico & Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, 2008. "Haircuts: Estimating investor losses in sovereign debt restructurings, 1998-2005," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 780-805, September.
    32. Baṣkaya, Yusuf Soner & Hardy, Bryan & Kalemli-Özcan, Ṣebnem & Yue, Vivian, 2024. "Sovereign risk and bank lending: Evidence from 1999 Turkish Earthquake," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    33. Acharya, Viral V. & Steffen, Sascha, 2015. "The “greatest” carry trade ever? Understanding eurozone bank risks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 215-236.
    34. Viral Acharya & Itamar Drechsler & Philipp Schnabl, 2014. "A Pyrrhic Victory? Bank Bailouts and Sovereign Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2689-2739, December.
    35. Opler, Tim & Pinkowitz, Lee & Stulz, Rene & Williamson, Rohan, 1999. "The determinants and implications of corporate cash holdings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 3-46, April.
    36. Asim Ijaz Khwaja & Atif Mian, 2008. "Tracing the Impact of Bank Liquidity Shocks: Evidence from an Emerging Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1413-1442, September.
    37. Karolyi, G. Andrew & Stulz, Rene M., 2003. "Are financial assets priced locally or globally?," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 16, pages 975-1020, Elsevier.
    38. G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), 2003. "Handbook of the Economics of Finance," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
    39. Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309.
    40. Juan J. Cruces & Christoph Trebesch, 2013. "Sovereign Defaults: The Price of Haircuts," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 85-117, July.
    41. Eduardo Levy‐Yeyati & María Soledad Martínez Pería & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2010. "Depositor Behavior under Macroeconomic Risk: Evidence from Bank Runs in Emerging Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(4), pages 585-614, June.
    42. Raghuram G. Rajan, 2005. "Has financial development made the world riskier?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 313-369.
    43. De Marco, Filippo, 2019. "Bank Lending and the European Sovereign Debt Crisis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 54(1), pages 155-182, February.
    44. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    45. Filippo Brutti & Philip U. Sauré, 2014. "Repatriation of Debt in the Euro Crisis: Evidence for the Secondary Market Theory," Working Papers 2014-03, Swiss National Bank.
    46. Mary Amiti & David E. Weinstein, 2011. "Exports and Financial Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(4), pages 1841-1877.
    47. Hatice Ozer Balli & Bent Sørensen, 2013. "Interaction effects in econometrics," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 583-603, August.
    48. Holmstrom, Bengt & Tirole, Jean, 1993. "Market Liquidity and Performance Monitoring," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(4), pages 678-709, August.
    49. Fernando Broner & Jaume Ventura, 2011. "Globalization and Risk Sharing," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 78(1), pages 49-82.
    50. Mr. Fabio Comelli, 2012. "Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads: Estimation and Back-testing," IMF Working Papers 2012/212, International Monetary Fund.
    51. Philipp Schnabl, 2012. "The International Transmission of Bank Liquidity Shocks: Evidence from an Emerging Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(3), pages 897-932, June.
    52. Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Mr. Federico Sturzenegger, 2005. "Haircuts: Estimating Investor Losses in Sovereign Debt Restructurings, 1998-2005," IMF Working Papers 2005/137, International Monetary Fund.
    53. G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), 2003. "Handbook of the Economics of Finance," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 2.
    54. Mr. Jochen R. Andritzky, 2012. "Government Bonds and their Investors: What Are the Facts and Do they Matter?," IMF Working Papers 2012/158, International Monetary Fund.
    55. Jay C. Shambaugh, 2004. "The Effect of Fixed Exchange Rates on Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 301-352.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nicola Gennaioli & Alberto Martin & Stefano Rossi, 2014. "Sovereign Default, Domestic Banks, and Financial Institutions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(2), pages 819-866, April.
    2. Diego J. Perez, 2015. "Sovereign Debt, Domestic Banks and the Provision of Public Liquidity," Discussion Papers 15-016, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    3. Christoph Trebesch & Mr. Michael G. Papaioannou & Mr. Udaibir S Das, 2012. "Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950-2010: Literature Survey, Data, and Stylized Facts," IMF Working Papers 2012/203, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Filippo Brutti & Philip Sauré, 2016. "Repatriation of Debt in the Euro Crisis," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 145-174.
    5. Juan J. Cruces & Christoph Trebesch, 2013. "Sovereign Defaults: The Price of Haircuts," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 85-117, July.
    6. Michael Tomz & Mark L.J. Wright, 2013. "Empirical Research on Sovereign Debt and Default," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 247-272, May.
    7. Anil Ari, 2015. "Sovereign Risk and Bank Risk-Taking," Working Papers 202, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    8. Acharya, Viral V. & Rajan, Raghuram G. & Shim, Jack B., 2024. "Sovereign debt and economic growth when government is myopic and self-interested," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    9. Sosa-Padilla, César, 2018. "Sovereign defaults and banking crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 88-105.
    10. Acharya, Viral V. & Rajan, Raghuram G. & Shim, Jack B., 2024. "Reprint of “Sovereign debt and economic growth when government is myopic and self-interested”," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    11. Coimbra, Nuno, 2020. "Sovereigns at risk: A dynamic model of sovereign debt and banking leverage," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    12. Irina Balteanu & Aitor Erce, 2018. "Linking Bank Crises and Sovereign Defaults: Evidence from Emerging Markets," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 66(4), pages 617-664, December.
    13. Baṣkaya, Yusuf Soner & Hardy, Bryan & Kalemli-Özcan, Ṣebnem & Yue, Vivian, 2024. "Sovereign risk and bank lending: Evidence from 1999 Turkish Earthquake," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    14. Aitor Erce, 2012. "Selective sovereign defaults," Globalization Institute Working Papers 127, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    15. Filippo Brutti & Philip U. Sauré, 2014. "Repatriation of Debt in the Euro Crisis: Evidence for the Secondary Market Theory," Working Papers 2014-03, Swiss National Bank.
    16. Cornand, Camille & Gandré, Pauline & Gimet, Céline, 2016. "Increase in home bias in the Eurozone debt crisis: The role of domestic shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 445-469.
    17. Viral V. Acharya & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2013. "Sovereign Debt, Government Myopia, and the Financial Sector," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(6), pages 1526-1560.
    18. Broner, Fernando & Erce, Aitor & Martin, Alberto & Ventura, Jaume, 2014. "Sovereign debt markets in turbulent times: Creditor discrimination and crowding-out effects," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 114-142.
    19. Guido Sandleris, 2016. "The Costs of Sovereign Default: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 1-27, April.
    20. Silvia Marchesi, 2016. "Life after default? Private vs. official sovereign debt restructurings," Development Working Papers 398, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano, revised 26 Aug 2016.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign Risk; Sovereign Default; Government Bonds;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:1378. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econ.upf.edu/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.