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COVID-19 Mortality in Rich and Poor Countries : A Tale of Two Pandemics ?

Author

Listed:
  • Schellekens,Philip
  • Sourrouille,Diego M.
Abstract
COVID-19 can be described as a heat-seeking missile speeding toward the most vulnerable in society. That metaphor applies not just to the vulnerable in the rich world; the vulnerable in the rest of the world are not more immune. Yet, despite the extensive spread of the virus, the mortality toll remains highly concentrated in high-income countries. Developing countries represent 85 percent of the global population, but only 21 percent of the pandemic's death toll. This unusual inequality creates the impression that the world is subjected to two different pandemics in terms of their impact. This paper documents the observed inequality with a new indicator that expresses severity relative to pre-pandemic patterns. It argues that the excessive skew towards rich countries is inconsistent with demography. Simulations based on reasonable ranges for infectivity and fatality suggest that the developing country share in global fatalities could rise by a factor of three (from 21 to 69 percent). Environmental and host-specific factors will influence these results but are unlikely to overturn them. While data quality has a role in explaining ‘excess inequality’, the more compelling explanation is that the pandemic has yet to run its course through the age distributions of the world.

Suggested Citation

  • Schellekens,Philip & Sourrouille,Diego M., 2020. "COVID-19 Mortality in Rich and Poor Countries : A Tale of Two Pandemics ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9260, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9260
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    File URL: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/559181590712052524/pdf/COVID-19-Mortality-in-Rich-and-Poor-Countries-A-Tale-of-Two-Pandemics.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joel Elvery, 2020. "Getting to Accuracy: Measuring COVID-19 by Mortality Rates and Percentage Changes," Cleveland Fed District Data Brief 20200408, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    2. Editorial, 2020. "Covid-19 and Climate Change," Journal, Review of Agrarian Studies, vol. 10(1), pages 5-6, January-J.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chiara Burlina & Andrés Rodríguez-Pose, 2024. "Inequality, poverty, deprivation and the uneven spread of COVID-19 in Europe," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(2), pages 263-284, February.
    2. Santiago Lago-Peñas & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez & Agnese Sacchi, 2022. "Country performance during the Covid-19 pandemic: externalities, coordination, and the role of institutions," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 17-31, March.
    3. Seda Kumru & Pakize Yiğit & Osman Hayran, 2022. "Demography, inequalities and Global Health Security Index as correlates of COVID‐19 morbidity and mortality," International Journal of Health Planning and Management, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 944-962, March.
    4. Xu,Yuanwei & Delius,Antonia Johanna Sophie & Pape,Utz Johann, 2022. "Gender Differences in Household Coping Strategies for COVID-19 in Kenya," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9959, The World Bank.
    5. Demombynes,Gabriel & De Walque,Damien B. C. M. & Gubbins,Paul Michael & Urdinola,Beatriz Piedad & Veillard,Jeremy Henri Maurice, 2021. "COVID-19 Age-Mortality Curves for 2020 Are Flatter in Developing Countries Using Both Official DeathCounts and Excess Deaths," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9807, The World Bank.
    6. Demombynes,Gabriel, 2020. "COVID-19 Age-Mortality Curves Are Flatter in Developing Countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9313, The World Bank.
    7. Yupeng Li & Kul Prasad Kapri, 2021. "Impact of Economic Factors and Policy Interventions on the COVID-19 Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-18, November.

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    Keywords

    Law and Justice Institutions; Health Care Services Industry; Public Health Promotion; Disease Control&Prevention; Global Environment;
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