[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbkrpb/147291.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Macroeconomic Policy in the Time of COVID-19 : A Primer for Developing Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Loayza,Norman V.
  • Pennings,Steven Michael
Abstract
COVID-19 not only represents a worldwide public health emergency but has become an international economic crisis that could surpass the global financial crisis of 2008?09. Right now, containment and mitigation measures are necessary to limit the spread of the virus and save lives. However, they come at a cost, as shutdowns imply reducing economic activity. These human and economic costs are likely to be larger for developing countries, which generally have lower health care capacity, larger informal sectors, shallower financial markets, less fiscal space, and poorer governance. Policy makers will need to weigh carefully the effectiveness and socioeconomic consequences of containment and mitigation policies, responding to epidemiological evidence on how the virus spreads and trying to avoid unintended consequences. Economic policy in the short term should be focused on providing emergency relief to vulnerable populations and affected businesses. The short-term goal is not to stimulate the economy?which is impossible, given the supply-restricting containment measures, but rather to avoid mass layoffs and bankruptcies. In the medium term, macroeconomic policy should turn to recovery measures, which typically involve monetary and fiscal stimulus. However, in many developing countries, stimulus may be less effective because monetary transmission is weak and fiscal space and fiscal multipliers are often small. A more viable goal for macroeconomic policy in developing countries is avoiding procyclicality, ensuring the continuity of public services for the economy, and supporting the vulnerable. Because COVID-19 is truly a global shock, international coordination is essential, in economic policy,health care and science, and containment and mitigation efforts. Critical times call for well-designed government action and effective public service delivery?preserving, rather than ignoring, the practices for macroeconomic stability and proper governance that serve in good and bad times.

Suggested Citation

  • Loayza,Norman V. & Pennings,Steven Michael, 2020. "Macroeconomic Policy in the Time of COVID-19 : A Primer for Developing Countries," Research and Policy Briefs 147291, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbkrpb:147291
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/951811585836124198/pdf/Macroeconomic-Policy-in-the-Time-of-COVID-19-A-Primer-for-Developing-Countries.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Huidrom, Raju & Kose, M. Ayhan & Lim, Jamus J. & Ohnsorge, Franziska L., 2020. "Why do fiscal multipliers depend on fiscal Positions?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 109-125.
    2. Riera-Crichton, Daniel & Vegh, Carlos A. & Vuletin, Guillermo, 2015. "Procyclical and countercyclical fiscal multipliers: Evidence from OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 15-31.
    3. Pennings, Steven & Ramayandi, Arief & Tang, Hsiao Chink, 2015. "The impact of monetary policy on financial markets in small open economies: More or less effective during the global financial crisis?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 60-70.
    4. Loayza,Norman V., 2018. "Informality : Why Is It So Widespread and How Can It Be Reduced?," Research and Policy Briefs 133110, The World Bank.
    5. Gentilini,Ugo & Laughton, Sarah & O?Brien, Clare, 2018. "Human(itarian) Capital? : Lessons on Better Connecting Humanitarian Assistance and Social Protection," Policy Research Working Paper Series 132231, The World Bank.
    6. Handa, Sudhanshu & Natali, Luisa & Seidenfeld, David & Tembo, Gelson & Davis, Benjamin, 2018. "Can unconditional cash transfers raise long-term living standards? Evidence from Zambia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 42-65.
    7. World Bank, "undated". "World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, October 2019," World Bank Publications - Reports 32482, The World Bank Group.
    8. Gentilini,Ugo & Laughton, Sarah & O?Brien, Clare, 2018. "Human(itarian) Capital? : Lessons on Better Connecting Humanitarian Assistance and Social Protection," Social Protection Discussion Papers and Notes 132231, The World Bank.
    9. Aart Kraay, 2012. "How large is the Government Spending Multiplier? Evidence from World Bank Lending," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(2), pages 829-887.
    10. Saptarshi Mukherjee & Krishnamurthy Subramanian & Prasanna Tantri, 2018. "Borrowers' Distress and Debt Relief: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(4), pages 607-635.
    11. Susan W. Parker & Petra E. Todd, 2017. "Conditional Cash Transfers: The Case of Progresa/Oportunidades," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 55(3), pages 866-915, September.
    12. World Bank, "undated". "World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, April 2020," World Bank Publications - Reports 33477, The World Bank Group.
    13. World Bank, 2020. "Response to COVID-19," World Bank Publications - Reports 33738, The World Bank Group.
    14. Valerie A. Ramey & Sarah Zubairy, 2018. "Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from US Historical Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(2), pages 850-901.
    15. Oya Celasun & Mr. Francesco Grigoli & Ms. Keiko Honjo & Mr. Javier Kapsoli & Mr. Alexander D Klemm & Mr. Bogdan Lissovolik & Jan Luksic & Ms. Marialuz Moreno Badia & Ms. Joana Pereira & Mr. Marcos Pop, 2015. "Fiscal Policy in Latin America: Lessons and Legacies of the Global Financial Crisis," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2015/006, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Chuah,Lay Lian & Loayza,Norman V. & Myers,C. Bernard, 2020. "The Fight against Corruption : Taming Tigers and Swatting Flies," Research and Policy Briefs 145050, The World Bank.
    17. Oya Celasun & Francesco Grigoli & Keiko Honjo & Javier Kapsoli & Alexander D Klemm & Bogdan Lissovolik & Jan Luksic & Marialuz Moreno Badia & Joana Pereira & Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro & Baoping Shang &, 2015. "Fiscal Policy in Latin America; Lessons and Legacies of the Global Financial Crisis," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 15/6, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Norman V. Loayza & Steven Pennings, 2020. "Macroeconomic Policy in the Time of COVID-19," World Bank Publications - Reports 33540, The World Bank Group.
    2. Emilio Colombo & Davide Furceri & Pietro Pizzuto & Patrizio Tirelli, 2022. "Fiscal Multipliers and Informality," DISEIS - Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia internazionale, delle istituzioni e dello sviluppo dis2201, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimento di Economia internazionale, delle istituzioni e dello sviluppo (DISEIS).
    3. Tovar Jalles, João & Park, Donghyun & Qureshi, Irfan, 2024. "Public and Private Investment as Catalysts for Growth: An analysis of emerging markets and developing economies with a focus on Asia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    4. Jalles, João Tovar & Park , Donghyun & Qureshi, Irfan, 2024. "Public versus Private Investment Multipliers in Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Cross-Country Analysis with a Focus on Asia," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 737, Asian Development Bank.
    5. Syed Sadaqat Ali Shah & Muhammad Asim Afridi, 2023. "Cyclical variation of fiscal multipliers in Caucasus and Central Asia economies: an empirical evidence," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 4531-4563, December.
    6. Jorge Pablo Puig & Martin Ardanaz & Eduardo Cavallo & Alejandro Izquierdo, 2021. "Output effects of fiscal consolidations: does spending composition matter?," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4507, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    7. Raju Huidrom & M. Ayhan Kose & Jamus J. Lim & Franziska L. Ohnsorge, 2016. "Do Fiscal Multipliers Depend on Fiscal Positions?," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1605, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    8. Angela Köppl & Margit Schratzenstaller, 2022. "Macroeconomic Effects of Green Recovery Programmes. Conceptual Framing and a Review of the Empirical Literature," WIFO Working Papers 646, WIFO.
    9. Jair N. Ojeda‐Joya & Oscar E. Guzman, 2019. "The Size Of Fiscal Multipliers And The Stance Of Monetary Policy In Developing Economies," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(4), pages 621-640, October.
    10. Andrea Boitani & Salvatore Perdichizzi & Chiara Punzo, 2022. "Nonlinearities and expenditure multipliers in the Eurozone [Tales of fiscal adjustment]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 31(2), pages 552-575.
    11. James Cloyne & Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2020. "Decomposing the Fiscal Multiplier," Working Paper Series 2020-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    12. Banerjee, Ryan & Zampolli, Fabrizio, 2019. "What drives the short-run costs of fiscal consolidation? Evidence from OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 420-436.
    13. Cloyne, James & Jordà , Òscar & Taylor, Alan M., 2023. "State-Dependent Local Projections: Understanding Impulse Response Heterogeneity," CEPR Discussion Papers 17903, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Fleischhacker, Jan, 2024. "Fiscal policy and the business cycle: An argument for non-linear policy rules," MPRA Paper 122497, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Sheremirov, Viacheslav & Spirovska, Sandra, 2022. "Fiscal multipliers in advanced and developing countries: Evidence from military spending," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    16. George Chouliarakis & Tadeusz Gwiazdowski & Sophia Lazaretou, 2016. "The Effect of Fiscal Policy on Output in Times of Crisis and Prosperity: Historical Evidence From Greece ," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 230, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    17. Mathias Klein, 2016. "Austerity and Private Debt," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1611, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    18. Ianc, Nicolae-Bogdan & Turcu, Camelia, 2020. "So alike, yet so different: Comparing fiscal multipliers across EU members and candidates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 278-298.
    19. Combes, Jean-Louis & Minea, Alexandru & Sow, Moussé, 2017. "Is fiscal policy always counter- (pro-) cyclical? The role of public debt and fiscal rules," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 138-146.
    20. Mr. Armand P Fouejieu & Mr. Sergio L. Rodriguez & Mr. Sohaib Shahid, 2018. "Fiscal Adjustment in the Gulf Countries: Less Costly than Previously Thought," IMF Working Papers 2018/133, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Health Care Services Industry; Public Health Promotion; Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases; Economic Conditions and Volatility;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbkrpb:147291. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.