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Sovereign Risk and Bank Risk-Taking

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  • Mr. Anil Ari
Abstract
I propose a dynamic general equilibrium model in which strategic interactions between banks and depositors may lead to endogenous bank fragility and slow recovery from crises. When banks' investment decisions are not contractible, depositors form expectations about bank risk-taking and demand a return on deposits according to their risk. This creates strategic complementarities and possibly multiple equilibria: in response to an increase in funding costs, banks may optimally choose to pursue risky portfolios that undermine their solvency prospects. In a bad equilibrium, high funding costs hinder the accumulation of bank net worth, leading to a persistent drop in investment and output. I bring the model to bear on the European sovereign debt crisis, in the course of which under-capitalized banks in defaultrisky countries experienced an increase in funding costs and raised their holdings of domestic government debt. The model is quantified using Portuguese data and accounts for macroeconomic dynamics in Portugal in 2010-2016. Policy interventions face a trade-off between alleviating banks' funding conditions and strengthening risk-taking incentives. Liquidity provision to banks may eliminate the good equilibrium when not targeted. Targeted interventions have the capacity to eliminate adverse equilibria.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Anil Ari, 2017. "Sovereign Risk and Bank Risk-Taking," IMF Working Papers 2017/280, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2017/280
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    Cited by:

    1. Crosignani, Matteo, 2021. "Bank capital, government bond holdings, and sovereign debt capacity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 693-704.
    2. Mr. Anil Ari & Sophia Chen & Mr. Lev Ratnovski, 2019. "The Dynamics of Non-Performing Loans during Banking Crises: A New Database," IMF Working Papers 2019/272, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Matteo Crosignani, 2015. "Why Are Banks Not Recapitalized During Crises?," Working Papers 203, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    4. Andreas Jobst & Ms. Hiroko Oura, 2019. "Sovereign Risk in Macroprudential Solvency Stress Testing," IMF Working Papers 2019/266, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Buch, Claudia M. & Koetter, Michael & Ohls, Jana, 2016. "Banks and sovereign risk: A granular view," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 1-15.
    6. Carlos Alberto Piscarreta Pinto Ferreira, 2023. "Drivers of Sovereign Bond Demand – The Case of Japans," Working Papers REM 2023/0264, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    7. Maria Manuel Campos & Ana Rita Mateus, 2019. "Sovereign exposures in the Portuguese banking system: determinants and dynamics," Working Papers w201916, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    8. Ari, Anil & Chen, Sophia & Ratnovski, Lev, 2021. "The dynamics of non-performing loans during banking crises: A new database with post-COVID-19 implications," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    9. Affinito, Massimiliano & Albareto, Giorgio & Santioni, Raffaele, 2022. "Purchases of sovereign debt securities by banks during the crisis: The role of balance sheet conditions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    10. Hodula Martin & Pfeifer Lukáš, 2018. "Fiscal-Monetary-Financial Stability Interactions in a Data-Rich Environment," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 18(3), pages 195-224, September.
    11. Ohls, Jana, 2017. "Moral suasion in regional government bond markets," Discussion Papers 33/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    12. Ari, Anil, 2018. "Gambling traps," Working Paper Series 2217, European Central Bank.
    13. Corbisiero, Giuseppe, 2022. "Bank lending, collateral, and credit traps in a monetary union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    14. Nadal De Simone, Francisco, 2021. "Measuring the deadly embrace: Systemic and sovereign risks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; central bank; demand schedule; Risk-taking; Financial constraints; Banking crises; Sovereign debt crises; bank lending; solvency constraint; deposit demand schedule; representative bank; funding condition; Sovereign bonds; Bank credit; Solvency; Liquidity; Global;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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