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Keeping up with the Joneses: economic impacts of overconfidence in micro-entrepreneurs

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  • Julia Seither
Abstract
This paper investigates the effects of incorrect beliefs over relative firm performance on micro-firm outputs through a randomized field experiment in Mozambique. At baseline, 76% of firm owners in the bottom of the distribution are overconfident about their firm’s performance. The estimates reveal that correcting these beliefs through a simple, easily scalable information experiment closes the performance gap between treated firms in the bottom of the distribution at baseline and average and top firms by almost 43%. Moreover, the treatment increases the time a firm owner allocates to her business, improves strategic cooperation with the most important business partners, and affects the pricing strategy of treated firm owners. My results suggest that incorrect beliefs about relative performance are a binding constraint to firm growth that have large implications for managerial behavior and firm outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Julia Seither, 2021. "Keeping up with the Joneses: economic impacts of overconfidence in micro-entrepreneurs," NOVAFRICA Working Paper Series wp2108, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics, NOVAFRICA.
    • Handle: RePEc:unl:novafr:wp2108
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Lang, M & Seither, J, 2022. "The Economics of Women s Entrepreneurship: Evidence from Building Skills in Uganda," Documentos de Trabajo 20563, Universidad del Rosario.
    2. Martin Chegere & Paolo Falco & Marco Nieddiu & Lorenzo Pandolfi & Mattea Stein, 2022. "The Magic of the Game:Experimental Evidence on Sports Betting Behavior," CSEF Working Papers 655, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy, revised 15 Nov 2024.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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