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The Political Economy of Constitutional Choice: A Study of the 2005 Kenyan Constitutional Referendum

Author

Listed:
  • Mwangi S. Kimenyi

    (University of Connecticut)

  • William F. Shughart II

    (University of Mississippi)

Abstract
Recent studies of the linkages between the wealth of nations and the institutions of governance suggest that concentrating political power in a monarchy or a ruling coalition impedes economic growth and, moreover, that while power-diffusing reforms can enhance the wellbeing of society in general, opposition by groups benefitting from the status quo is predictable. In November 2005, Kenyans rejected a proposed constitution that, despite promises made by their new chief executive, would not have lessened the powers of the presidency. Using a unique, constituency-level dataset on the referendum vote, we estimate a model of the demand for power diffusion and find that ethnic groups' voting decisions are influenced by their expected gains and losses from constitutional change. The results also highlights the importance of ethnic divisions in hindering the power-diffusion process, and thus establish a channel through which ethnic fragmentation adversely impacts economic development.

Suggested Citation

  • Mwangi S. Kimenyi & William F. Shughart II, 2008. "The Political Economy of Constitutional Choice: A Study of the 2005 Kenyan Constitutional Referendum," Working papers 2008-08, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:uct:uconnp:2008-08
    Note: We benefitted from the comments of participants in economics department seminars at the University of Mississippi, the University of Connecticut and at Oxford University's Center for the Study of African Economies. Thanks to John Colon, Krishna Ladha, Simona Tick, Mark Van Boening, Steve Ross, Christian Zimmermann, Dennis Heffley, Hui-chen Wang and, especially, the Kenyan members of the audience attending a BB\&T Lecture at West Virginia University. Brandon Ramsey's research assistance also is gratefully acknowledged. As is customary, however, the authors nevertheless accept full responsibility for any and all errors.
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Paul Collier & Pedro Vicente, 2012. "Violence, bribery, and fraud: the political economy of elections in Sub-Saharan Africa," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 153(1), pages 117-147, October.
    3. Christophe Lévêque, 2020. "Political connections, political favoritism and political competition: evidence from the granting of building permits by French mayors," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 184(1), pages 135-155, July.
    4. Jerg Gutmann & Stefan Voigt, 2023. "Militant constitutionalism: a promising concept to make constitutional backsliding less likely?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 195(3), pages 377-404, June.
    5. Fuhai Hong & Dong Zhang, 2023. "Bureaucratic beliefs and law enforcement," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 196(3), pages 357-379, September.
    6. Monica Escaleras & Charles Register, 2016. "The high cost of low quality infrastructure when natural disasters strike," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 50(1), pages 103-122, January-M.
    7. Wakako Maekawa & Barış Arı & Theodora-Ismene Gizelis, 2019. "UN involvement and civil war peace agreement implementation," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 178(3), pages 397-416, March.
    8. Stephen Ansolabehere & M. Socorro Puy, 2016. "Identity voting," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 169(1), pages 77-95, October.
    9. William F. Shughart & Diana W. Thomas & Michael D. Thomas, 2020. "Institutional Change and the Importance of Understanding Shared Mental Models," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 371-391, August.
    10. Bedasso, Biniam, 2012. "Lords of Uhuru: the political economy of elite competition and institutional change in post-independence Kenya," MERIT Working Papers 2012-042, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    11. Monica Escaleras & Charles Register, 2012. "Fiscal decentralization and natural hazard risks," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 151(1), pages 165-183, April.
    12. Mwangi S. Kimenyi & Roxana Gutierrez Romero, 2008. "Tribalism as a Minimax-Regret Strategy: Evidence from Voting in the 2007 Kenyan Elections," Working papers 2008-35, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    13. Matthew D. Mitchell, 2019. "Uncontestable favoritism," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 181(1), pages 167-190, October.
    14. George Crowley, 2012. "Spatial dependence in constitutional constraints: the case of US states," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 134-165, June.
    15. Joshua C. Hall & Serkan Karadas, 2017. "Tuition Increases Geaux Away? Evidence from Voting on Louisiana’s Amendment 2," Working Papers 17-29, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Constitutions; Direct Democracy; Public Goods; Interest Groups; Ethnic Divisions.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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