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Solving the Productivity Puzzle: The Role of Demand and the Promise of Digitization

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  • Jaana Remes, Jan Mischke and Mekala Krishnan
Abstract
What is behind exceptionally weak productivity growth across many developed economies? We analyze seven countries (United States, Germany, France, UK, Italy, Spain, and Sweden) across six sectors (automotive, technology, retail, electric power, tourism, and finance) and examine supply and demand factors in the period from 2010 to 2014 compared to 2000 to 2004. For each sector, we combine economic analyses with McKinseys industry expertise to shed light on the microeconomic causes behind industry productivity performance. We find three waves collided to drive productivity growth across sectors: the waning of the impact of the 1990s information technology revolution; financial crisis aftereffects, including weak demand and uncertainty; and digital disruption which offers substantial opportunities to boost productivity growth but comes with lags and transition costs. We calculate that the first two waves dragged down productivity growth by 1.9 percentage points across countries since the mid-2000s, from 2.4 per cent to 0.5 per cent. As financial crisis aftereffects recede and more companies incorporate digital solutions, we expect productivity growth to recover, with productivity growth potential of at least 2 per cent per year across countries over the next decade.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaana Remes, Jan Mischke and Mekala Krishnan, 2018. "Solving the Productivity Puzzle: The Role of Demand and the Promise of Digitization," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 34, pages 28-51, Fall.
    • Handle: RePEc:sls:ipmsls:v:35:y:2018:2
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    2. Felix Roth, 2022. "The Productivity Puzzle: A Critical Assessment and an Outlook on the COVID-19 Crisis," Contributions to Economics, in: Intangible Capital and Growth, chapter 0, pages 1-16, Springer.
    3. Frank W. Geels & Jonatan Pinkse & Dimitri Zenghelis, 2021. "Productivity opportunities and risks in a transformative,low-carbon and digital age," Working Papers 009, The Productivity Institute.
    4. Wang, Weilong & Wang, Jianlong & Ye, Huiying & Wu, Haitao, 2024. "Polluted air, smarter factories? China's robot imports shed light on a potential link," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    5. Zhao, Yantong & Said, Rusmawati & Ismail, Normaz Wana & Hamzah, Hanny Zurina, 2024. "Impact of industrial robot on labour productivity: Empirical study based on industry panel data," Innovation and Green Development, Elsevier, vol. 3(2).
    6. Ana Martins & Tiago Domingues & Catarina Branco, 2018. "The Determinants of TFP Growth in the Portuguese Service Sector," GEE Papers 0114, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Nov 2018.
    7. Nathalie Greenan & Silvia Napolitano & Imad El Hamma, 2022. "Technologies numériques, capacité d'apprentissage de l'organisation et l'innovation : résultats empiriques à l'échelle de l'UE à partir d'un ensemble de données combinées," Working Papers halshs-03941324, HAL.
    8. Nathalie Greenan & Silvia Napolitano, 2024. "Digital technologies, learning capacity of the organization and innovation: EU-wide empirical evidence from a combined dataset," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 33(3), pages 634-669.
    9. Wulong Gu & Michael Willox, 2018. "Productivity Growth in Canada and the United States: Recent Industry Trends and Potential Explanations," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 35, pages 73-94, Fall.
    10. Rebecca Riley & Ana Rincon-Aznar & Lea Samek, 2018. "Below the Aggregate: A Sectoral Account of the UK Productivity Puzzle," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2018-06, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    11. Andreas Felsberger & Gerald Reiner, 2020. "Sustainable Industry 4.0 in Production and Operations Management: A Systematic Literature Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-39, September.
    12. Szunomár, Ágnes, 2019. "A digitális nagy ugrás. Lassulás és modernizációs stratégiaváltás Kínában [The great digital leap. Deceleration and a change in modernisation strategy in China]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1312-1346.
    13. Roth, Felix, 2021. "Das Produktivitätspuzzle: Eine kritische Bewertung," Edition HWWI: Chapters, in: Straubhaar, Thomas (ed.), Neuvermessung der Datenökonomie, volume 6, pages 61-82, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    14. Wenxiang Peng & Yutao Lei & Xuan Zhang, 2023. "Analysis of China’s High-Carbon Manufacturing Industry’s Carbon Emissions in the Digital Process," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-35, October.
    15. Ashraf, Sania & P., Jithin & Slim, Skander & Najeeb, Roshen, 2023. "Global value chains and economic complexity index: Evidence from generalized panel quantile regression," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 347-365.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    productivity; digitization; demand; technology;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L86 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Information and Internet Services; Computer Software
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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