[go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/toueco/v19y2013i4p919-942.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Effects of Tourism, Economic Growth, Real Exchange Rate, Structural Changes and Hurricanes in Jamaica

Author

Listed:
  • Edward E. Ghartey

    (Department of Economics, University of the West Indies, Mona, Kingston 7, Jamaica)

Abstract
The study examines the causal relationships among changes in tourism, economic growth, the real exchange rate, structural changes and hurricanes in Jamaica from 1963 to 2008. The Johansen cointegration test and autoregressive distributed lag estimates are used to determine the long-run equilibrium relationships among the variables. In both the short term and the long run, an increase in tourism (both arrivals and real expenditures) causes expansion in economic growth, with tourist arrivals yielding more robust results. In the long run, economic growth causes appreciation (a fall in the real exchange rate), whereas tourism growth causes depreciation, although their overall combined effects are appreciation. Depreciation increases tourist arrivals and real expenditures, but has conflicting effects on economic growth. Hurricanes result in appreciation, whereas the effects of structural changes are mixed. Additionally, hurricanes result in a decline in tourist real expenditure, and cause tourist arrivals to fall briefly before reversing into a modest increase. The tourism-led economic growth findings for both the short term and long run, albeit modest, imply that it can be worthwhile to extend incentives to promote Jamaica as a tourist destination.

Suggested Citation

  • Edward E. Ghartey, 2013. "Effects of Tourism, Economic Growth, Real Exchange Rate, Structural Changes and Hurricanes in Jamaica," Tourism Economics, , vol. 19(4), pages 919-942, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:19:y:2013:i:4:p:919-942
    DOI: 10.5367/te.2013.0228
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.5367/te.2013.0228
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.5367/te.2013.0228?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "The New Econometrics of Structural Change: Dating Breaks in U.S. Labour Productivity," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 117-128, Fall.
    2. Ghartey, Edward E., 1998. "Money demand in Jamaica: Evidence from cointegration, error correction modelling, and exogeneity," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 33-43.
    3. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chien, Mei-Se, 2008. "Structural breaks, tourism development, and economic growth: Evidence from Taiwan," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 77(4), pages 358-368.
    4. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    5. Mita Bhattacharya & Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "Testing for the random walk hypothesis in the case of visitor arrivals: evidence from Indian tourism," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(13), pages 1485-1490.
    6. Juselius, Katarina, 2006. "The Cointegrated VAR Model: Methodology and Applications," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199285679.
    7. Jordan Shan & Ken Wilson, 2001. "Causality between trade and tourism: empirical evidence from China," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 279-283.
    8. Nikolaos Dritsakis, 2004. "Tourism as a Long-Run Economic Growth Factor: An Empirical Investigation for Greece Using Causality Analysis," Tourism Economics, , vol. 10(3), pages 305-316, September.
    9. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    10. Christine Lim, 1997. "An Econometric Classification and Review of International Tourism Demand Models," Tourism Economics, , vol. 3(1), pages 69-81, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nishkar Kumar, Nikeel & Patel, Arvind, 2024. "A test of the tourism Dutch disease hypothesis in developing countries," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    2. Martins, Luís Filipe & Gan, Yi & Ferreira-Lopes, Alexandra, 2017. "An empirical analysis of the influence of macroeconomic determinants on World tourism demand," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 248-260.
    3. Xu Huang & Emmanuel Silva & Hossein Hassani, 2018. "Causality between Oil Prices and Tourist Arrivals," Stats, MDPI, vol. 1(1), pages 1-21, October.
    4. Rukmani Gounder, 2022. "Tourism-led and economic-driven nexus in Mauritius: Spillovers and inclusive development policies in the case of an African nation," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(4), pages 1040-1058, June.
    5. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Ferrer, Román & Hussain Shahzad, Syed Jawad & Haouas, Ilham, 2017. "Is the tourism-economic growth nexus time-varying? Bootstrap rolling-window causality analysis for the top ten tourist destinations," MPRA Paper 82713, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Nov 2017.
    6. Adedoyin, Festus Fatai & Bekun, Festus Victor & Driha, Oana M. & Balsalobre-Lorente, Daniel, 2020. "The effects of air transportation, energy, ICT and FDI on economic growth in the industry 4.0 era: Evidence from the United States," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    7. Avishek Khanal & Mohammad Mafizur Rahman & Rasheda Khanam & Eswaran Velayutham, 2022. "Exploring the Impact of Air Transport on Economic Growth: New Evidence from Australia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-17, September.
    8. Rajesh Sharma & Pradeep Kautish & D. Suresh Kumar, 2018. "Impact of Selected Macroeconomic Determinants on Economic Growth in India: An Empirical Study," Vision, , vol. 22(4), pages 405-415, December.
    9. Raihan, Asif & Voumik, Liton Chandra & Akter, Salma & Ridzuan, Abdul Rahim & Fahlevi, Mochammad & Aljuaid, Mohammed & Saniuk, Sebastian, 2024. "Taking flight: Exploring the relationship between air transport and Malaysian economic growth," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    10. Sung Yu-Chi, 2018. "Revisiting the Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis in a Dual Model Using Mwald Granger Causality Analysis," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 8(8), pages 1102-1110, August.
    11. Muhammad Shahbaz & Román Ferrer & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Ilham Haouas, 2018. "Is the tourism–economic growth nexus time-varying? Bootstrap rolling-window causality analysis for the top 10 tourist destinations," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(24), pages 2677-2697, May.
    12. Chien-Ming Wang & Tsung-Pao Wu, 2022. "Does tourism promote or reduce environmental pollution? Evidence from major tourist arrival countries," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 3334-3355, March.
    13. Chien-Chiang Lee & Mei-Ping Chen & Wenmin Wu & Wenwu Xing, 2021. "The impacts of ICTs on tourism development: International evidence based on a panel quantile approach," Information Technology & Tourism, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 509-547, December.
    14. Chien-Ming Wang & Su-Lan Pan & Alastair M. Morrison & Tsung-Pao Wu, 2022. "The dynamic linkages among outbound tourism, economic growth, and international trade: empirical evidence from China," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(11), pages 1-18, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Salah Eddine Sari Hassoun & Khayereddine Salim Adda & Asma Hadjira Sebbane, 2021. "Examining the connection among national tourism expenditure and economic growth in Algeria," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-9, December.
    2. Yonglian Wang & Lijun Wang & Han Liu & Yongjing Wang, 2021. "The Robust Causal Relationships Among Domestic Tourism Demand, Carbon Emissions, and Economic Growth in China," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(4), pages 21582440211, October.
    3. Ramzi Issa & Robert Lafrance & John Murray, 2008. "The turning black tide: energy prices and the Canadian dollar," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(3), pages 737-759, August.
    4. H. M. Ertugrul & S. Yildirim & F. Ayhan, 2017. "An Investigation of Stationarity Properties of the Turkish Tourism Income Variable," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 9(2), pages 37-49, September.
    5. Hasanov, Fakhri J. & Aliyev, Ruslan & Taskin, Dilvin & Suleymanov, Elchin, 2023. "Oil rents and non-oil economic growth in CIS oil exporters. The role of financial development," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    6. John D. Levendis, 2018. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-98282-3, June.
    7. Edward E GHARTEY, 2015. "Causal Relationship Between Financial Development And Economic Growth In South Africa," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 15(1), pages 125-142.
    8. Boopen Seetanah & Kesseven Padachi & Sawkut Rojid, 2011. "Tourism and Economic Growth: African Evidence from Panel Vector Autoregressive Framework," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2011-033, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    9. Singh Tarlok, 2016. "International Mobility of Capital in the United States: Robust Evidence from Time-Series Tests," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(2), pages 193-249, July.
    10. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Koo, Bonsoo & Seo, Myung Hwan, 2015. "Structural-break models under mis-specification: Implications for forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(1), pages 166-181.
    12. Dupuy, Arnaud & Marey, Philip S., 2008. "Shifts and twists in the relative productivity of skilled labor," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 718-735, June.
    13. Nyakabawo, Wendy & Miller, Stephen M. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Das, Sonali & Gupta, Rangan, 2015. "Temporal causality between house prices and output in the US: A bootstrap rolling-window approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 55-73.
    14. Geweke, J. & Joel Horowitz & Pesaran, M.H., 2006. "Econometrics: A Bird’s Eye View," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0655, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    15. Joscha Beckmann & Robert Czudaj, 2017. "Effective Exchange Rates, Current Accounts and Global Imbalances," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3), pages 500-533, August.
    16. Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz, 2014. "Is there any relationship between the rates of interest and profit in the U.S. economy?," Studies in Economics 1416, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    17. Francisco Azeredo, 2014. "The equity premium: a deeper puzzle," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 347-373, August.
    18. repec:wyi:journl:002106 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Tang, Chor Foon, 2011. "Tourism, real output and real effective exchange rate in Malaysia: a view from rolling sub-samples," MPRA Paper 29379, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Andreas G. Georgantopoulos, 2013. "Tourism Expansion and Economic Development: Var/Vecm Analysis and Forecasts for the Case of India," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(4), pages 464-482, April.
    21. van Dijk, D.J.C. & Osborn, D.R. & Sensier, M., 2002. "Changes in variability of the business cycle in the G7 countries," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2002-28, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:19:y:2013:i:4:p:919-942. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.