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Is the tourism–economic growth nexus time-varying? Bootstrap rolling-window causality analysis for the top 10 tourist destinations

Author

Listed:
  • Muhammad Shahbaz
  • Román Ferrer
  • Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad
  • Ilham Haouas
Abstract
This article explores the time-varying causal nexus between tourism development and economic growth for the top 10 tourist destinations in the world, namely China, France, Germany, Italy, Mexico, the Russian Federation, Spain, Turkey, the UK and the United States of America, over the period 1990–2015. To that end, a bootstrap rolling window Granger causality approach based on the modified Granger causality test is used. A new index for tourism activity which combines via principal component analysis the commonly used tourism indicators is also employed. The results of the bootstrap rolling window causality tests reveal that the causal relations between tourism and economic growth vary substantially over time and across countries in terms of both magnitude and direction. It is shown that the causal linkages tend to be more pronounced for a large group of countries following the global financial crisis of 2008. Additionally, Germany, France and China clearly stand out as the countries with the weakest causal nexus, while the UK, Italy and Mexico emerge as the countries that have the strongest causal links. These results have particularly important implications for policymakers.

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  • Muhammad Shahbaz & Román Ferrer & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Ilham Haouas, 2018. "Is the tourism–economic growth nexus time-varying? Bootstrap rolling-window causality analysis for the top 10 tourist destinations," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(24), pages 2677-2697, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:50:y:2018:i:24:p:2677-2697
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2017.1406655
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    3. Wang, Kai-Hua & Zhao, Yan-Xin & Jiang, Cui-Feng & Li, Zheng-Zheng, 2022. "Does green finance inspire sustainable development? Evidence from a global perspective," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 412-426.
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    6. Eric Olabode Olabisi, 2018. "Revisiting the Tourism-Economic Growth Nexus: The Case of Economic Community of West African States," Business & Management Compass, University of Economics Varna, issue 1, pages 21-30.
    7. Uktam Umurzakov & Shakhnoza Tosheva & Raufhon Salahodjaev, 2023. "Tourism and Sustainable Economic Development: Evidence from Belt and Road Countries," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 14(1), pages 503-516, March.
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    9. Yu MA & Adnan KHURSHID & Abdur RAUF & Jin ZHANG & Xinyu WANG & Claudia BOGHICEVICI, 2022. "Covid-19, Tourism and the Economy - Evidence from Pandemic Epicenters of Europe," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 65-82, April.
    10. Khalid M. Kisswani & Amjad M. Kisswani & Arezou Harraf, 2019. "The Impacts of Oil Price Shocks on Tourism Receipts For Selected Mena Countries: Do Structural Breaks Matter?," Working Papers 1305, Economic Research Forum, revised 21 Aug 2019.
    11. Petar Sorić & Mirjana Čižmešija & Marina Matošec, 2020. "EU Consumer Confidence and the New Modesty Hypothesis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 152(3), pages 899-921, December.
    12. Chi-Wei Su & Xian-Li Meng & Ran Tao & Muhammad Umar, 2023. "Chinese consumer confidence: A catalyst for the outbound tourism expenditure?," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(3), pages 696-717, May.
    13. Xiao Xuan & Khalid Khan & Chi-Wei Su & Adnan Khurshid, 2021. "Will COVID-19 Threaten the Survival of the Airline Industry?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-18, October.

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