[The state-dependent fiscal Multiplier in a Post-Keynesian Macroeconomic Model]"> [The state-dependent fiscal Multiplier in a Post-Keynesian Macroeconomic Model]">
[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rvr/journl/201915306.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Le multiplicateur budgétaire endogène au cycle dans un modèle macroéconomique post-keynésien
[The state-dependent fiscal Multiplier in a Post-Keynesian Macroeconomic Model]

Author

Listed:
  • Charles, Sébastien
Abstract
Cet article propose une synthèse du concept de multiplicateur budgétaire variable et avance de nouvelles pistes d'analyse de celui-ci. Récemment, de nombreuses études ont montré que le multiplicateur était endogène à l’activité, augmentant en période de récession et diminuant en période d'expansion. Dans ce qui suit, nous démontrons que cette variabilité peut être expliquée, en partie, par des propensions à épargner et à importer qui fluctuent au cours du cycle. Ainsi, nous intégrons des propensions endogènes au taux d’utilisation des capacités productives dans un modèle post-keynésien. Nous effectuons également quelques simulations montrant que le multiplicateur augmente en récession, ce qui ne plaide pas pour une politique d’austérité en temps de crise.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles, Sébastien, 2019. "Le multiplicateur budgétaire endogène au cycle dans un modèle macroéconomique post-keynésien [The state-dependent fiscal Multiplier in a Post-Keynesian Macroeconomic Model]," Revue de la Régulation - Capitalisme, institutions, pouvoirs, Association Recherche et Régulation, vol. 26.
    • Handle: RePEc:rvr:journl:2019:15306
    DOI: 10.4000/regulation.15306
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.openedition.org/regulation/15306
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.openedition.org/regulation/pdf/15306
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.4000/regulation.15306?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 1-27, May.
    2. Alan G. Isaac & Yun K. Kim, 2013. "Consumer and Corporate Debt: A Neo- K aleckian Synthesis," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(2), pages 244-271, May.
    3. Steve Fazzari & Hyman Minsky, 1984. "Domestic Monetary Policy: If Not Monetarism, What?," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 101-116, March.
    4. Thomas Herndon & Michael Ash & Robert Pollin, 2014. "Does high public debt consistently stifle economic growth? A critique of Reinhart and Rogoff," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 38(2), pages 257-279.
    5. Riera-Crichton, Daniel & Vegh, Carlos A. & Vuletin, Guillermo, 2015. "Procyclical and countercyclical fiscal multipliers: Evidence from OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 15-31.
    6. Amitava Dutt, 2012. "Distributional dynamics in Post Keynesian growth models," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 431-452.
    7. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1990. "Can Severe Fiscal Contractions Be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 75-122, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Olivier J. Blanchard & Daniel Leigh, 2013. "Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 117-120, May.
    9. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    10. Barry Z. Cynamon & Steven M. Fazzari, 2016. "Inequality, the Great Recession and slow recovery," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 40(2), pages 373-399.
    11. Mr. Jaewoo Lee & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Michael Kumhof & Charles Freedman, 2009. "The Case for Global Fiscal Stimulus," IMF Staff Position Notes 2009/003, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Fazzari Steven M. & Morley James & Panovska Irina, 2015. "State-dependent effects of fiscal policy," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(3), pages 285-315, June.
    13. Thomas I. Palley, 2009. "Imports and the income-expenditure model: implications for fiscal policy and recession fighting," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 311-322, December.
    14. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2013. "Output Spillovers from Fiscal Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 141-146, May.
    15. Raju Huidrom & M. Ayhan Kose & Jamus J. Lim & Franziska L. Ohnsorge, 2016. "Do Fiscal Multipliers Depend on Fiscal Positions?," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1605, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    16. W. Qazizada & E. Stockhammer, 2015. "Government spending multipliers in contraction and expansion," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 238-258, March.
    17. Dutt, Amitava Krishna, 1984. "Stagnation, Income Distribution and Monopoly Power," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 8(1), pages 25-40, March.
    18. Constantinos Alexiou, 2010. "A Keynesian-Kaleckian model of investment determination: a panel data investigation," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(3), pages 427-444, April.
    19. Timothy Wunder, 2012. "Income Distribution and Consumption Driven Growth: How Consumption Behaviors of the Top Two Income Quintiles Help to Explain the Economy," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(1), pages 173-192.
    20. Rudolfs Bems & Robert C. Johnson & Kei-Mu Yi, 2013. "The Great Trade Collapse," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 375-400, May.
    21. Sébastien Charles & Thomas Dallery & Jonathan Marie, 2018. "Why Are Keynesian Multipliers Larger in Hard Times? A Palley-Aftalion-Pasinetti Explanation," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 50(4), pages 736-756, December.
    22. Sébastien Charles, 2008. "Corporate debt, variable retention rate and the appearance of financial fragility," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 32(5), pages 781-795, September.
    23. Sébastien Charles & Thomas Dallery & Jonathan Marie, 2015. "Why the Keynesian Multiplier Increases During Hard Times: A Theoretical Explanation Based on Rentiers' Saving Behaviour," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(3), pages 451-473, July.
    24. Jérôme Creel & Éric Heyer & Mathieu Plane, 2011. "Petit précis de politique budgétaire par tous les temps. Les multiplicateurs budgétaires au cours du cycle," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 61-88.
    25. Jaewoo Lee & Douglas Laxton & Michael Kumhof & Charles Freedman, 2009. "The Case for Global Fiscal Stimulus," IMF Staff Position Notes 2009/03, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sébastien Charles & Thomas Dallery & Jonathan Marie, 2015. "Why the Keynesian Multiplier Increases During Hard Times: A Theoretical Explanation Based on Rentiers' Saving Behaviour," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(3), pages 451-473, July.
    2. Andrea Boitani & Salvatore Perdichizzi, 2018. "Public Expenditure Multipliers in recessions. Evidence from the Eurozone," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def068, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    3. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2g7mhju69b94obeaqlen09s1au is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2g7mhju69b94obeaqlen09s1au is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Sébastien Charles & Thomas Dallery & Jonathan Marie, 2015. "Le multiplicateur keynésien en récession : pourquoi une relance est-elle davantage nécessaire aujourd'hui en zone euro ?," CEPN Policy Brief, Centre d'Economie de l'Université de Paris Nord, vol. 7, pages 1-4.
    6. Sébastien Charles & Thomas Dallery & Jonathan Marie, 2018. "Why Are Keynesian Multipliers Larger in Hard Times? A Palley-Aftalion-Pasinetti Explanation," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 50(4), pages 736-756, December.
    7. Branimir Jovanovic, 2017. "Growth forecast errors and government investment and consumption multipliers," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 83-107, January.
    8. Christophe Blot & Marion Cochard & Jérôme Creel & Bruno Ducoudré & Danielle Schweisguth & Xavier Timbeau, 2014. "Fiscal Consolidation, Public Debt and Output Dynamics in the Euro Area: lessons from a simple model with time-varying fiscal multipliers," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 124(6), pages 953-989.
    9. Achim Truger, 2013. "Austerity in the euro area: the sad state of economic policy in Germany and the EU," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 10(2), pages 158-174.
    10. Biolsi, Christopher, 2017. "Nonlinear effects of fiscal policy over the business cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 54-87.
    11. Christophe Blot & Marion Cochard & Jérôme Creel & Bruno Ducoudré & Danielle Schweisguth & Xavier Timbeau, 2014. "Fiscal consolidation in times of crisis: is the sooner really the better?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 159-192.
    12. Salvatore Perdichizzi, 2017. "Estimating Fiscal multipliers in the Eurozone. A Nonlinear Panel Data Approach," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def058, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    13. Alberto Botta & Daniele Tori, 2015. "A critique to the expansionary austerity: Theoretical weaknesses and empirical counter evidence," Working Papers PKWP1511, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    14. Christian R. Proaño & Christian Schoder & Willi Semmler, 2013. "Financial Stress, Sovereign Debt and Economic Activity in Industrialized Countries: Evidence from Nonlinear Dynamic Panels," Working Papers 1304, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    15. Eckhard Hein, 2017. "Post-Keynesian macroeconomics since the mid 1990s: main developments," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 14(2), pages 131-172, September.
    16. Fontana, Olimpia & Sau, Lino, 2023. "Expansionary Austerity in Europe: Finally an Oxymoron?," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 202317, University of Turin.
    17. Pragidis, I.C. & Tsintzos, P. & Plakandaras, B., 2018. "Asymmetric effects of government spending shocks during the financial cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 372-387.
    18. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/2g7mhju69b94obeaqlen09s1au is not listed on IDEAS
    19. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2g7mhju69b94obeaqlen09s1au is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Proaño, Christian R. & Schoder, Christian & Semmler, Willi, 2014. "Financial stress, sovereign debt and economic activity in industrialized countries: Evidence from dynamic threshold regressions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 17-37.
    21. Alessandro Caiani & Ermanno Catullo & Mauro Gallegati, 2018. "The effects of fiscal targets in a monetary union: a multi-country agent-based stock flow consistent model," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 27(6), pages 1123-1154.
    22. Falilou Fall & Debra Bloch & Jean-Marc Fournier & Peter Hoeller, 2015. "Prudent debt targets and fiscal frameworks," OECD Economic Policy Papers 15, OECD Publishing.
    23. Pablo Hernández de Cos & Enrique Moral-Benito, 2016. "Fiscal multipliers in turbulent times: the case of Spain," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 1589-1625, June.
    24. Alberto Botta, 2020. "The short- and long-run inconsistency of the expansionary austerity theory: a post-Keynesian/evolutionist critique," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 143-177, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Multiplicateur; cycle; propensions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rvr:journl:2019:15306. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Pascal Seppecher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://theorie-regulation.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.