[go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/thk/wpaper/9.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Inequality, the Great Recession, and Slow Recovery

Author

Listed:
  • Barry Z. Cynamon

    (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Center for Household Financial Stability)

  • Steven M. Fazzari

    (Washington University in St. Louis)

Abstract
Rising inequality reduced income growth for the bottom 95 percent of the US personal income distribution beginning about 1980. To maintain stable debt to income, this group’s consumption-income ratio needed to decline, which did not happen through 2006, and its debt-income ratio rose dramatically, unlike the ratio for the top 5 percent. In the Great Recession, the consumption-income ratio for the bottom 95 percent did finally decline, consistent with tighter borrowing constraints, while the top 5 percent ratio rose, consistent with consumption smoothing. We argue that higher inequality and the associated demand drag helps explain the slow recovery.

Suggested Citation

  • Barry Z. Cynamon & Steven M. Fazzari, 2014. "Inequality, the Great Recession, and Slow Recovery," Working Papers Series 9, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
  • Handle: RePEc:thk:wpaper:9
    DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2638030
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2638030
    File Function: First version, 2014
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.2139/ssrn.2638030?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jason DeBacker & Bradley Heim & Vasia Panousi & Shanthi Ramnath & Ivan Vidangos, 2013. "Rising Inequality: Transitory or Persistent? New Evidence from a Panel of U.S. Tax Returns," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 46(1 (Spring), pages 67-142.
    2. Mark Aguiar & Mark Bils, 2015. "Has Consumption Inequality Mirrored Income Inequality?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(9), pages 2725-2756, September.
    3. Childers, Terry L & Rao, Akshay R, 1992. "The Influence of Familial and Peer-Based Reference Groups on Consumer Decisions," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 19(2), pages 198-211, September.
    4. Robert H. Frank, 2005. "Positional Externalities Cause Large and Preventable Welfare Losses," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 137-141, May.
    5. Setterfield, Mark & Kim, Yun K., 2016. "Debt servicing, aggregate consumption, and growth," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 22-33.
    6. Marc Lavoie, 1994. "A Post Keynesian Approach to Consumer Choice," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 539-562, July.
    7. Congressional Budget Office, 2012. "The Distribution of Household Income and Federal Taxes, 2008 and 2009," Reports 43373, Congressional Budget Office.
    8. Thomas Goda & Photis Lysandrou, 2014. "The contribution of wealth concentration to the subprime crisis: a quantitative estimation," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 38(2), pages 301-327.
    9. Cynamon,Barry Z. & Fazzari,Steven & Setterfield,Mark (ed.), 2013. "After the Great Recession," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107015890, September.
    10. Thomas I. Palley, 1994. "Debt, Aggregate Demand, and The Business Cycle: an Analysis in the Spirit of Kaldor and Minsky," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 371-390, March.
    11. Eric Tymoigne, 2014. "Measuring macroprudential risk through financial fragility: a Minskian approach," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(4), pages 719-744.
    12. Jan Behringer & Till van Treeck, 2013. "Income distribution and current account: A sectoral perspective," IMK Working Paper 125-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    13. van Treeck, Till. & Sturn, Simon., 2012. "Income inequality as a cause of the Great Recession? : A survey of current debates," ILO Working Papers 994709343402676, International Labour Organization.
    14. Christian A Belabed & Thomas Theobald & Till van Treeck, 2018. "Income distribution and current account imbalances [Notes on capacity utilisation, distribution and accumulation]," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 42(1), pages 47-94.
    15. Cynamon Barry Z. & Fazzari Steven M., 2008. "Household Debt in the Consumer Age: Source of Growth--Risk of Collapse," Capitalism and Society, De Gruyter, vol. 3(2), pages 1-32, October.
    16. Mark Setterfield (ed.), 2010. "Handbook of Alternative Theories of Economic Growth," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12814.
    17. Michael Kumhof & Romain Rancière & Pablo Winant, 2015. "Inequality, Leverage, and Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(3), pages 1217-1245, March.
    18. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2010. "The Great Recession: Lessons from Microeconomic Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 51-56, May.
    19. Mr. Francesco Grigoli & Adrian Robles, 2017. "Inequality Overhang," IMF Working Papers 2017/076, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Amitava Krishna Dutt, 2006. "Maturity, Stagnation And Consumer Debt: A Steindlian Approach," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 339-364, July.
    21. Shefrin, Hersh M & Thaler, Richard H, 1988. "The Behavioral Life-Cycle Hypothesis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 26(4), pages 609-643, October.
    22. Mr. Michael Kumhof & Mr. Romain Ranciere & Pablo Winant, 2013. "Inequality, Leverage and Crises: The Case of Endogenous Default," IMF Working Papers 2013/249, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Anthony Atkinson & Thomas Piketty, 2007. "Top incomes over the twentieth century: A contrast between continental european and english-speaking countries," Post-Print halshs-00754859, HAL.
    24. Congressional Budget Office, 2012. "The Distribution of Household Income and Federal Taxes, 2008 and 2009," Reports 43373, Congressional Budget Office.
    25. Özlem Onaran & Engelbert Stockhammer & Lucas Grafl, 2011. "Financialisation, income distribution and aggregate demand in the USA," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 35(4), pages 637-661.
    26. Christopher Brown, 2004. "Does income distribution matter for effective demand? Evidence from the United States," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 291-307.
    27. repec:ilo:ilowps:470934 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Jakob Kapeller & Bernhard Schütz, 2014. "Debt, boom, bust: a theory of Minsky-Veblen cycles," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(4), pages 781-814.
    29. Wynne Godley & Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & Gennaro Zezza, 2008. "Prospects for the U.S. and the World -- A Crisis That Conventional Remedies Cannot Resolve," Economics Strategic Analysis Archive sa_dec_08, Levy Economics Institute.
    30. L. Wray, 2008. "Lessons from the Subprime Meltdown," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(2), pages 40-68.
    31. Gary A. Dymski, 2010. "Why the subprime crisis is different: a Minskyian approach," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 34(2), pages 239-255, March.
    32. Jason DeBacker & Bradley Heim & Vasia Panousi & Shanthi Ramnath & Ivan Vidangos, 2013. "Rising Inequality: Transitory or Persistent? New Evidence from a Panel of U.S. Tax Returns," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 44(1 (Spring), pages 67-142.
    33. Congressional Budget Office, 2012. "The Distribution of Household Income and Federal Taxes, 2008 and 2009," Reports 43373, Congressional Budget Office.
    34. Bearden, William O & Etzel, Michael J, 1982. "Reference Group Influence on Product and Brand Purchase Decisions," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 9(2), pages 183-194, September.
    35. Korty Doug, 2008. "Comment on "Household Debt in the Consumer Age: Source of Growth--Risk of Collapse" (by Barry Z. Cynamon and Steven M. Fazzari)," Capitalism and Society, De Gruyter, vol. 3(3), pages 1-3, December.
    36. Karen E. Dynan & Jonathan Skinner & Stephen P. Zeldes, 2004. "Do the Rich Save More?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(2), pages 397-444, April.
    37. Nelson H. Barbosa-Filho & Codrina Rada von Arnim & Lance Taylor & Luca Zamparelli, 2008. "Cycles and trends in U.S. net borrowing flows," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 623-648, July.
    38. David Laibson, 1997. "Golden Eggs and Hyperbolic Discounting," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(2), pages 443-478.
    39. Heather Boushey & Christian Weller, 2008. "Has Growing Inequality Contributed to Rising Household Economic Distress?," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 1-22.
    40. Congressional Budget Office, 2012. "The Distribution of Household Income and Federal Taxes, 2008 and 2009," Reports 43373, Congressional Budget Office.
    41. Wojciech Kopczuk & Emmanuel Saez & Jae Song, 2010. "Earnings Inequality and Mobility in the United States: Evidence from Social Security Data Since 1937," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(1), pages 91-128.
    42. Mr. Romain Ranciere & Mr. Nathaniel A. Throckmorton & Mr. Michael Kumhof & Ms. Claire Lebarz & Mr. Alexander W. Richter, 2012. "Income Inequality and Current Account Imbalances," IMF Working Papers 2012/008, International Monetary Fund.
    43. Eric Tymoigne, 2012. "Financial fragility," Chapters, in: Jan Toporowski & Jo Michell (ed.), Handbook of Critical Issues in Finance, chapter 14, pages i-ii, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    44. Atkinson, A. B. & Piketty, Thomas (ed.), 2007. "Top Incomes Over the Twentieth Century: A Contrast Between Continental European and English-Speaking Countries," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199286881.
    45. Aldo Barba & Massimo Pivetti, 2009. "Rising household debt: Its causes and macroeconomic implications--a long-period analysis," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 33(1), pages 113-137, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eckhard Hein, 2017. "Post-Keynesian macroeconomics since the mid 1990s: main developments," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 14(2), pages 131-172, September.
    2. Barry Z. Cynamon & Steven M. Fazzari, 2013. "Inequality and Household Finance during the Consumer Age," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_752, Levy Economics Institute.
    3. Till Treeck, 2014. "Did Inequality Cause The U.S. Financial Crisis?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(3), pages 421-448, July.
    4. Hein, Eckhard & Dodig, Nina, 2014. "Financialisation, distribution, growth and crises: Long-run tendencies," IPE Working Papers 35/2014, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    5. Daniel Detzer, 2017. "Financialisation, Debt and Inequality: Export-led Mercantilist and Debt-led Private Demand Boom Economies in a Stock-flow consistent Model," Working Papers 2016-03, Universita' di Cassino, Dipartimento di Economia e Giurisprudenza.
    6. Daniel Detzer, 2016. "Financialisation, Debt and Inequality – scenarios based on a stock flow consistent model," Working papers wpaper151, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
    7. Jan Behringer & Till van Treeck, 2013. "Income distribution and current account: A sectoral perspective," IMK Working Paper 125-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    8. Thomas Goda, 2017. "A comparative review of the role of income inequality in economic crisis theories and its contribution to the financial crisis of 2007-2009," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 9(1), pages 151-174, February.
    9. Till van Treeck, 2012. "Did inequality cause the U.S. financial crisis?," IMK Working Paper 91-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    10. Christian A Belabed & Thomas Theobald & Till van Treeck, 2018. "Income distribution and current account imbalances [Notes on capacity utilisation, distribution and accumulation]," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 42(1), pages 47-94.
    11. Yun K. Kim, 2017. "Rise of Household Debt and the Great Recession in the US: Comparative Perspectives," Working Papers 2017_03, University of Massachusetts Boston, Economics Department.
    12. Franz J. Prante, 2018. "Macroeconomic Effects of Personal and Functional Income Inequality: Theory and Empirical Evidence for the US and Germany," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 65(3), pages 289-318.
    13. Jakob Kapeller & Bernhard Schütz, 2015. "Conspicuous Consumption, Inequality and Debt: The Nature of Consumption-driven Profit-led Regimes," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(1), pages 51-70, February.
    14. Barbieri Góes, Maria Cristina, 2019. "Personal income distribution and progressive taxation in a neo-Kaleckian model: Insights from the Italian case," IPE Working Papers 126/2019, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    15. Jan Behringer & Thomas Theobald & Till van Treeck, 2014. "Income and Wealth Distributionin Germany: A Macro-Economic Perspective," IMK Report 99e-2014, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    16. Yun K. Kim, 2020. "Household Debt Accumulation and the Great Recession of the United States: A Comparative Perspective," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 52(1), pages 26-49, March.
    17. Engelbert Stockhammer & Rafael Wildauer, 2016. "Debt-driven growth? Wealth, distribution and demand in OECD countries," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 40(6), pages 1609-1634.
    18. Alvarez-Cuadrado, Francisco & Japaridze, Irakli, 2017. "Trickle-down consumption, financial deregulation, inequality, and indebtedness," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 1-26.
    19. Christian A. Belabed, 2016. "Inequality and the New Deal," IMK Working Paper 166-2016, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    20. Mark Setterfield & Yun K. Kim & Jeremy Rees, 2016. "Inequality, Debt Servicing and the Sustainability of Steady State Growth," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1), pages 45-63, January.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:thk:wpaper:9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Pia Malaney (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inetnus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.