[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rjr/romjef/vy2021i1p122-142.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Revenue-Maximizing Corporate Income Tax Rate for Turkey

Author

Listed:
  • Hüseyin ŞEN

    (Ankara Yıldırım Beyazıt University, Faculty of Political Sciences, Department of Public Finance. Esenboğa Külliyesi, Çubuk/Ankara, Turkey.)

  • Zeynep Burcu BULUT-ÇEVIK

    (Corresponding Author. Economist, PhD, Toronto, Canada.)

Abstract
This paper empirically explores the revenue-maximizing corporate income tax rate for Turkey by using annual time-series data for the period from 1980 to 2019. Overall, we identify two key findings. First, corporate income tax rates are nonlinearly associated with revenues from corporate taxation, confirming the existence of an inverted U-shaped relationship between the two variables. Second, the estimated revenue-maximizing corpo-rate income tax rate is found to be 23.5%, slightly above Turkey’s current statutory corporate income tax rate of 22%. These findings indicate that the current rate is only 1.5 percentage points lower than its revenue-maximizing value and thus there is little room for Turkish authorities for reaching a revenue-maximizing peak through tax rate hikes. The most striking result that emerges from our empirical analysis is that raising revenues from corporate taxation further through statutory corporate income tax rate hikes is not an appropriate tax policy option for Turkey. Instead, it may be a more plausible policy option to go corporate income tax cuts that have positive implications for economic growth and employment and by implication for government taxation in the long run. If the Turkish policymakers insist on revenue-raising through corporate taxation, they should focus exclusively on macroeconomic and non-macroeconomic factors that would increase the size and profitability of the corporate sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Hüseyin ŞEN & Zeynep Burcu BULUT-ÇEVIK, 2021. "The Revenue-Maximizing Corporate Income Tax Rate for Turkey," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 122-142, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2021:i:1:p:122-142
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef1_21/rjef1_2021p122-142.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fullerton, Don, 1982. "On the possibility of an inverse relationship between tax rates and government revenues," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-22, October.
    2. Paola Profeta & Simona Scabrosetti, 2010. "The Political Economy of Taxation," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13258.
    3. Kevin A. Hassett & Alex Brill, 2007. "Revenue-Maximizing Corporate Income Taxes," AEI Economics Working Papers 49742, American Enterprise Institute.
    4. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    5. Malcomson, James M., 1986. "Some analytics of the laffer curve," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 263-279, April.
    6. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    7. Mathias Trabandt & Harald Uhlig, 2012. "How Do Laffer Curves Differ across Countries?," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 211-249, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Heijman, W.J.M. & van Ophem, J.A.C., 2005. "Willingness to pay tax: The Laffer curve revisited for 12 OECD countries," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 714-723, October.
    9. Basil A. Dalamagas, 1998. "Testing the Validity of the Laffer-Curve Hypothesis," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 52, pages 77-102.
    10. Francesco Forte & Ram Mudambi & Pietro Maria Navarra (ed.), 2014. "A Handbook of Alternative Theories of Public Economics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14898.
    11. T. W. Swan, 1956. "ECONOMIC GROWTH and CAPITAL ACCUMULATION," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(2), pages 334-361, November.
    12. Agell, Jonas & Persson, Mats, 2001. "On the analytics of the dynamic Laffer curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 397-414, October.
    13. Elias Steinmüller & Georg U. Thunecke & Georg Wamser, 2019. "Corporate income taxes around the world: a survey on forward-looking tax measures and two applications," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 26(2), pages 418-456, April.
    14. David Henderson, 1981. "Limitations of the Laffer Curve as a Justification for Tax Cuts," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 1(1), pages 45-52, Spring.
    15. Slemrod, Joel, 2004. "Are corporate tax rates, or countries, converging?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(6), pages 1169-1186, June.
    16. Ballard, Charles L. & Fullerton, Don & Shoven, John B. & Whalley, John, 2009. "A General Equilibrium Model for Tax Policy Evaluation," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226036335, September.
    17. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    18. Novales, Alfonso & Ruiz, Jesus, 2002. "Dynamic Laffer curves," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 181-206, December.
    19. Simon Loretz, 2008. "Corporate taxation in the OECD in a wider context," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 24(4), pages 639-660, winter.
    20. Kent Matthews, 2003. "VAT Evasion and VAT Avoidance: Is there a European Laffer curve for VAT?," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 105-114.
    21. Mahdavi, Saeid, 2008. "The level and composition of tax revenue in developing countries: Evidence from unbalanced panel data," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 607-617, October.
    22. Lin, Boqiang & Jia, Zhijie, 2019. "Tax rate, government revenue and economic performance: A perspective of Laffer curve," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1-1.
    23. Francesco Busato & Bruno Chiarini, 2013. "Steady State Laffer Curve with the Underground Economy," Public Finance Review, , vol. 41(5), pages 608-632, September.
    24. Burgess, Robin & Stern, Nicholas, 1993. "Taxation and Development," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 762-830, June.
    25. Alexandra Ferreira‐Lopes & Luís Filipe Martins & Ruben Espanhol, 2020. "The relationship between tax rates and tax revenues in eurozone member countries ‐ exploring the Laffer curve," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(2), pages 121-145, April.
    26. Sanyal, Amal & Gang, Ira N & Goswami, Omkar, 2000. "Corruption, Tax Evasion and the Laffer Curve," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 105(1-2), pages 61-78, October.
    27. Dani Rodrik, 1998. "Has Globalization Gone Too Far?," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(2), pages 81-94, March.
    28. Padovano, Fabio & Galli, Emma, 2002. "Comparing the growth effects of marginal vs. average tax rates and progressivity," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 529-544, September.
    29. K. Peren Arin & Michael Berlemann & Faik Koray & Torben Kuhlenkasper, 2013. "Nonlinear Growth Effects Of Taxation: A Semi‐Parametric Approach Using Average Marginal Tax Rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(5), pages 883-899, August.
    30. Oguzhan Akgun & David Bartolini & Boris Cournède, 2017. "The capacity of governments to raise taxes," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1407, OECD Publishing.
    31. Nutahara, Kengo, 2015. "Laffer curves in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 56-72.
    32. repec:adr:anecst:y:1998:i:52:p:04 is not listed on IDEAS
    33. Gahvari, Firouz, 1988. "Does the Laffer Curve Ever Slope Down?," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 41(2), pages 267-269, June.
    34. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria & Asea, Patrick, 1997. "On the ineffectiveness of tax policy in altering long-run growth: Harberger's superneutrality conjecture," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 99-126, October.
    35. Gahvari, Firouz, 1988. "Does the Laffer Curve Ever Slope Down?," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 41(2), pages 267-69, June.
    36. Lukas Vogel, 2012. "Tax avoidance and fiscal limits: Laffer curves in an economy with informal sector," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 448, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    37. Gomeh, Carmel & Strawczynski, Michel, 2020. "Simulating corporate tax rate at Laffer curve's peak using microdata," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    38. Barry W. Poulson & Jules Gordon Kaplan, 2008. "State Income Taxes and Economic Growth," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 28(1), pages 53-71, Winter.
    39. Charles L. Ballard & Don Fullerton & John B. Shoven & John Whalley, 1985. "The Relationship between Tax Rates and Government Revenue," NBER Chapters, in: A General Equilibrium Model for Tax Policy Evaluation, pages 188-202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    40. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    41. Trabandt, Mathias & Uhlig, Harald, 2011. "The Laffer curve revisited," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(4), pages 305-327.
    42. Michal Karas, 2012. "Tax rate to maximize the revenue: Laffer curve for the Czech Republic," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 60(4), pages 189-194.
    43. Kimberly Clausing, 2007. "Corporate tax revenues in OECD countries," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 14(2), pages 115-133, April.
    44. Hsing, Yu, 1996. "Estimating the laffer curve and policy implications," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 395-401.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Md. Mahiuddin Sabbir & Khan Md Raziuddin Taufique, 2022. "Sustainable employee green behavior in the workplace: Integrating cognitive and non‐cognitive factors in corporate environmental policy," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 110-128, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Şen, Hüseyin & Bulut-Çevik, Zeynep Burcu & Kaya, Ayşe, 2017. "The Khaldun-Laffer Curve Revisited: A Personal Income Tax-Based Analysis for Turkey," MPRA Paper 78850, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 27 Apr 2017.
    2. Kostantinos J. Liapis & Evangelos D. Politis & Dimitra Ntertsou & Eleftherios I. Thalassinos, 2020. "Investigating the Relationship between Tax Revenues and Tax Ratios: An Empirical Research for Selected OECD Countries," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(1), pages 215-229.
    3. Stanisław Cichocki & Ryszard Kokoszczyński, 2016. "The evolution of the Laffer curve as a framework for studying tax evasion: from simple theoretical to DSGE models," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 45.
    4. Alexandra Ferreira‐Lopes & Luís Filipe Martins & Ruben Espanhol, 2020. "The relationship between tax rates and tax revenues in eurozone member countries ‐ exploring the Laffer curve," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(2), pages 121-145, April.
    5. Dimitra Ntertsou & Konstantinos Liapis, 2022. "Investigating the Relationship between Tax Rates and Tax Revenues in the Euro Area: The Effect of the Shadow Economy," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 49-62.
    6. Juan Pablo Herrera Saavedra & Juan Camilo Villar Otálora & Jacobo Campo Robledo, 2020. "Tributación en Colombia: Una aproximación teórica y empírica de la Curva de Laffer," Estudios Económicos SIC 18601, Superintendencia de Industria y Comercio.
    7. Dennis Ridley & Cartreal Davison, 2022. "Optimal Tax Rate for Maximal Revenue Generation," Technium Social Sciences Journal, Technium Science, vol. 29(1), pages 271-284, March.
    8. Oguzhan Akgun & David Bartolini & Boris Cournède, 2017. "The capacity of governments to raise taxes," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1407, OECD Publishing.
    9. Alexandru Minea & Patrick Villieu, 2009. "Impôt, déficit et croissance économique : un réexamen de la courbe de Laffer," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 119(4), pages 653-675.
    10. Jorge Martinez-Vazquez & Violeta Vulovic & Yongzheng Liu, 2011. "Direct versus Indirect Taxation: Trends, Theory, and Economic Significance," Chapters, in: Emilio Albi & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez (ed.), The Elgar Guide to Tax Systems, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. Dean Scrimgeour, 2015. "Dynamic Scoring in a Romer‐Style Economy," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 81(3), pages 697-723, January.
    12. Sami Saafi & Meriem Bel Haj Mohamed & Abdeljelil Farhat, 2017. "Untangling the causal relationship between tax burden distribution and economic growth in 23 OECD countries: Fresh evidence from linear and non-linear Granger causality," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 14(2), pages 265-301, December.
    13. Dean Scrimgeour, 2015. "Dynamic Scoring in a Romer-Style Economy," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 81(3), pages 697-723, January.
    14. E. EHRHART & Alexandru MINEA & Patrick VILLIEU, 2009. "Deficits, Seignorage and the Growth Laffer Curve in Developing Countries," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 118, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    15. Herrera Saavedra, Juan Pablo & Villar Otálora, Juan Camilo & Campo-Robledo, Jacobo, 2021. "Tributación en Colombia: Una aproximación teórica y empírica de la Curva de Laffer," Working papers 73, Red Investigadores de Economía.
    16. Claudio Agostini, 2010. "Tributación a Los Cigarrillos: Análisis y Propuestas," ILADES-UAH Working Papers inv246, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business.
    17. Heijman, W.J.M. & van Ophem, J.A.C., 2005. "Willingness to pay tax: The Laffer curve revisited for 12 OECD countries," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 714-723, October.
    18. Francisca Guedes de Oliveira & Leonardo Costa, 2013. "The Vat Laffer Curve And The Business Cycle," Working Papers de Economia (Economics Working Papers) 02, Católica Porto Business School, Universidade Católica Portuguesa.
    19. DOMBOU T., Dany R., 2018. "Shadow effect from Laffer tax allergy: New tax policy tool to fight tax evasion," MPRA Paper 98646, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. repec:wly:soecon:v:81:3:y:2015:p:697-723 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Sanz Labrador, Ismael & Sanz-Sanz, José Félix, 2013. "Política fiscal y crecimiento económico: consideraciones microeconómicas y relaciones macroeconómicas," Macroeconomía del Desarrollo 5367, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Corporate income tax; optimal corporate income tax rate; Laffer curve; tax policy; Turkey;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2021:i:1:p:122-142. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Corina Saman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ipacaro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.