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A Fractionally Integrated Exponential Model for UK Unemployment

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  • Gil-Alana, Luis A
Abstract
Fractionally integrated models with the disturbances following a Bloomfield (1973) exponential spectral model are proposed in this article for modelling UK unemployment. This gives us a better understanding of the low-frequency dynamics affecting the series without relying on any particular ARMA specification for its short-run components which, in general, require many more parameters to estimate. The results indicate that this exponential model, confounded with fractional integration, may be a feasible way of modelling unemployment. It also shows that its order of integration is much higher than one and thus leads to the conclusion that the standard practice of taking first differences may lead to erroneous results. Copyright © 2001 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Gil-Alana, Luis A, 2001. "A Fractionally Integrated Exponential Model for UK Unemployment," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(5), pages 329-340, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:20:y:2001:i:5:p:329-40
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Maximum likelihood estimation of stationary univariate fractionally integrated time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 165-188.
    2. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October.
    3. Gil-Alana, L. A. & Robinson, P. M., 1997. "Testing of unit root and other nonstationary hypotheses in macroeconomic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 241-268, October.
    4. Robinson, P. M., 1991. "Testing for strong serial correlation and dynamic conditional heteroskedasticity in multiple regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 67-84, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    2. Yener, Coskun & Akinsomi, Omokolade & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S, 2023. "Stock Market Responses to COVID-19: The Behaviors of Mean Reversion, Dependence and Persistence," MPRA Paper 117002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir & Aysit Tansel, 2019. "Long Memory in Turkish Unemployment Rates," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(1), pages 201-217, January.
    4. Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Pedro Garcia-del-Barrio, 2006. "New Revelations about Unemployment Persistence in Spain," Faculty Working Papers 10/06, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    5. Umi Mahmudah, 2017. "Predicting unemployment rates in Indonesia," Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, Universitas Islam Indonesia, vol. 9(1), pages 20-28, April.
    6. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2008. "Modelling the US, UK and Japanese unemployment rates: Fractional integration and structural breaks," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(11), pages 4998-5013, July.
    7. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil‐Alana, 2004. "Fractional cointegration and real exchange rates," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 13(4), pages 327-340.
    8. Cunado, J. & Gil-Alana, L.A. & Gracia, Fernando Perez de, 2010. "Mean reversion in stock market prices: New evidence based on bull and bear markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 113-122, June.
    9. Coskun, Yener & Akinsomi, Omokolade & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Yaya, OlaOIuwa S., 2021. "Stock Market Responses to COVID-19: Mean Reversion, Dependence and Persistence Behaviours," MPRA Paper 109827, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana, 2004. "A fractionally integrated model for the Spanish real GDP," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(8), pages 1-6.
    11. Floros, Ch., 2005. "Forecasting the UK Unemployment Rate: Model Comparisons," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 2(4), pages 57-72.
    12. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2011. "Unemployment hysteresis, structural changes, non-linearities and fractional integration in European transition economies," Working Papers 2011005, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2011.
    13. Phi-Hung Nguyen & Jung-Fa Tsai & Ihsan Erdem Kayral & Ming-Hua Lin, 2021. "Unemployment Rates Forecasting with Grey-Based Models in the Post-COVID-19 Period: A Case Study from Vietnam," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-27, July.
    14. Jose Maria Fernandez-Crehuet & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Cristina Martí Barco, 2020. "Unemployment and Fertility: A Long Run Relationship," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 152(3), pages 1177-1196, December.
    15. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2004:i:8:p:1-6 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir & Aysit Tansel, 2019. "Long Memory in Turkish Unemployment Rates," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(1), pages 201-217, January.
    17. Cuestas, Juan C. & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Staehr, Karsten, 2011. "A further investigation of unemployment persistence in European transition economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 514-532.
    18. Adriana AnaMaria Davidescu & Simona-Andreea Apostu & Liviu Adrian Stoica, 2021. "Socioeconomic Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic: Exploring Uncertainty in the Forecast of the Romanian Unemployment Rate for the Period 2020–2023," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-22, June.
    19. Christos Katris, 2020. "Prediction of Unemployment Rates with Time Series and Machine Learning Techniques," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 55(2), pages 673-706, February.
    20. Gil-Alana, L.A., 2008. "Testing of seasonal integration and cointegration with fractionally integrated techniques: An application to the Danish labour demand," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 326-339, March.
    21. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2009. "Unemployment hysteresis, structural changes, non-linearities and fractional integration in Central and Eastern Europe," NBS Discussion Papers in Economics 2009/6, Economics, Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University.

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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