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Long-run and Cyclical Dynamics in the US Stock Market

Author

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  • Caporale, Guglielmo Maria

    (London South Bank University)

  • Gil-Alana, Luis A.

    (Department of Economics, University of Navarra)

Abstract
This paper examines the long-run dynamics and the cyclical structure of the US stock market using fractional integration techniques, specifically a version of the tests of Robinson (1994a) which allows for unit (or fractional) roots both at the zero (long-run) and at the cyclical frequencies. We consider inflation, real risk-free rate, real stock returns, equity premium and price/dividend ratio, annually from 1871 to 1993. When focusing exclusively on the long-run frequency, the estimated order of integration varies considerably, but nonstationarity is found only for the price/dividend ratio. When the cyclical component is also taken into account, most series appear to be stationary and to exhibit long memory. Further, mean reversion occurs. Finally, the fractional (at zero and cyclical) models are shown to forecast more accurately than rival ones based on fractional and integer differentiation exclusively at the zero frequency.

Suggested Citation

  • Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2004. "Long-run and Cyclical Dynamics in the US Stock Market," Economics Series 155, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:ihs:ihsesp:155
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    File URL: https://irihs.ihs.ac.at/id/eprint/1565
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    Cited by:

    1. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Juncal Cuñado & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2013. "Modelling long-run trends and cycles in financial time series data," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3), pages 405-421, May.
    2. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2010. "The Weekly Structure of US Stock Prices," CESifo Working Paper Series 3245, CESifo.
    3. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Poza, Carlos, 2020. "Persistence, non-linearities and structural breaks in European stock market indices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 50-61.
    4. Giorgio Canarella & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2020. "Modeling US historical time-series prices and inflation using alternative long-memory approaches," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1491-1511, April.
    5. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2011. "Long Memory and Fractional Integration in High-Frequency British Pound / Dollar Spot Exchange Rates," Faculty Working Papers 02/11, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    6. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2013. "Long memory and fractional integration in high frequency data on the US dollar/British pound spot exchange rate," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-9.
    7. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Carlos Poza, 2021. "Cycles and Long-Range Behaviour in the European Stock Markets," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Gilles Dufrénot & Takashi Matsuki (ed.), Recent Econometric Techniques for Macroeconomic and Financial Data, pages 293-302, Springer.
    8. Beaumont, Paul & Smallwood, Aaron, 2019. "Inference for likelihood-based estimators of generalized long-memory processes," MPRA Paper 96313, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Whitehouse, Emily J., 2017. "Forecast evaluation tests and negative long-run variance estimates in small samples," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 833-847.
    10. Giorgio Canarella & Luis Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M Miller, 2021. "Persistence and cyclical dynamics of US and UK house prices: Evidence from over 150 years of data," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 58(1), pages 53-72, January.
    11. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Gil-Alana, 2010. "Multiple cyclical fractional structures in financial time series," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(11), pages 1079-1081.
    12. Rania Jammazi & Chaker Aloui, 2014. "Cyclical components and dual long memory in the foreign exchange rate dynamics: the Tunisian case," Working Papers 2014-198, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    13. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Yun Cao, 2011. "Stock market prices in China. Efficiency, mean reversion, long memory volatility and other implicit dynamics," Faculty Working Papers 12/11, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    14. Boubaker, Heni & Sghaier, Nadia, 2015. "Semiparametric generalized long-memory modeling of some mena stock market returns: A wavelet approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 254-265.
    15. Souhir Ben Amor & Heni Boubaker & Lotfi Belkacem, 2022. "Predictive Accuracy of a Hybrid Generalized Long Memory Model for Short Term Electricity Price Forecasting," Papers 2204.09568, arXiv.org.
    16. repec:dau:papers:123456789/6913 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Beaumont, Paul & Smallwood, Aaron, 2019. "Conditional Sum of Squares Estimation of Multiple Frequency Long Memory Models," MPRA Paper 96314, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock market; Fractional cycles; Long memory; Gegenbauer processes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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