[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jjrfmx/v17y2023i1p9-d1306033.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Sovereign Debt Crisis and Fiscal Devolution

Author

Listed:
  • Ryota Nakatani

    (International Monetary Fund, 700 19th Street NW, Washington, DC 20431, USA)

Abstract
How is the probability of a sovereign debt crisis affected by fiscal devolution? Using annual cross-country panel data from 82 advanced and developing countries, the association between fiscal decentralization and the sovereign debt crisis is investigated. We adopt an instrumental variable probit model to address potential endogeneity. The research distinguishes between tax policies and spending policies. The results reveal that local tax autonomy reduces the probability of a sovereign debt crisis. In contrast, expenditure devolution is found to increase the probability of a sovereign debt crisis. These favorable and unfavorable effects of fiscal devolution are more evident in the case of decentralization to local governments than in the case of decentralization to subnational governments. In terms of relative magnitudes, our discrete choice analysis demonstrates that the undesirable effects of expenditure decentralization are greater than the desirable effects of tax revenue decentralization. Therefore, countries should be cautious about the risks associated with fiscal devolution, particularly the contrasting impact of tax revenue and spending decentralization on the likelihood that sovereign debt crises occur.

Suggested Citation

  • Ryota Nakatani, 2023. "Sovereign Debt Crisis and Fiscal Devolution," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(1), pages 1-8, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:17:y:2023:i:1:p:9-:d:1306033
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/17/1/9/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/17/1/9/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jane Mpapalika & Christopher Malikane, 2019. "The Determinants of Sovereign Risk Premium in African Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-20, February.
    2. Eichler, Stefan & Hofmann, Michael, 2013. "Sovereign default risk and decentralization: Evidence for emerging markets," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 113-134.
    3. Dawood, Mary & Horsewood, Nicholas & Strobel, Frank, 2017. "Predicting sovereign debt crises: An Early Warning System approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 16-28.
    4. Ryota Nakatani, 2021. "Fiscal Rules for Natural Disaster- and Climate Change-Prone Small States," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-26, March.
    5. Zafer Akin & Zeynep B. Bulut-Cevik & Bilin Neyapti, 2016. "Does Fiscal Decentralization Promote Fiscal Discipline?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(3), pages 690-705, March.
    6. Luc Laeven & Fabian Valencia, 2020. "Systemic Banking Crises Database II," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(2), pages 307-361, June.
    7. Jia, Junxue & Liu, Yongzheng & Martinez-Vazquez, Jorge & Zhang, Kewei, 2021. "Vertical fiscal imbalance and local fiscal indiscipline: Empirical evidence from China," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    8. Nguyen, Thanh Cong & Castro, Vítor & Wood, Justine, 2022. "A new comprehensive database of financial crises: Identification, frequency, and duration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    9. Jiro Honda & René Tapsoba & Ismael Issifou, 2022. "When do we repair the roof? Insights from responses to fiscal crisis early warning signals," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 172, pages 349-367.
    10. repec:kap:iaecre:v:17:y:2011:i:3:p:288-299 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Ryota Nakatani, 2024. "Revenue Decentralization and the Probability of a Fiscal Crisis: Is There a Tipping Point for Adverse Effects?," Public Finance Review, , vol. 52(3), pages 376-396, May.
    12. Török László, 2022. "Breakdown of Government Debt into Components in Euro Area Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-13, February.
    13. Ryota Nakatani, 2023. "Productivity drivers of infrastructure companies: Network industries utilizing economies of scale in the digital era," Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 94(4), pages 1273-1298, December.
    14. Laeven, Luc & Valencia, Fabian, 2020. "Systemic Banking Crises Database: A Timely Update in COVID-19 Times," CEPR Discussion Papers 14569, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Canavire-Bacarreza, Gustavo & Martinez-Vazquez, Jorge & Yedgenov, Bauyrzhan, 2020. "Identifying and disentangling the impact of fiscal decentralization on economic growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    16. Ryota Nakatani & Qianqian Zhang & Isaura Garcia Valdes, 2022. "Fiscal Decentralization Improves Social Outcomes When Countries Have Good Governance," IMF Working Papers 2022/111, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Jorge Martinez-Vazquez & Santiago Lago-Peñas & Agnese Sacchi, 2017. "The Impact Of Fiscal Decentralization: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(4), pages 1095-1129, September.
    18. Medas, Paulo & Poghosyan, Tigran & Xu, Yizhi & Farah-Yacoub, Juan & Gerling, Kerstin, 2018. "Fiscal crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 191-207.
      • Mrs. Kerstin Gerling & Mr. Paulo A Medas & Mr. Tigran Poghosyan & Juan Farah-Yacoub & Yizhi Xu, 2017. "Fiscal Crises," IMF Working Papers 2017/086, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Anisah Alfada, 2019. "Does Fiscal Decentralization Encourage Corruption in Local Governments? Evidence from Indonesia," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-14, July.
    20. Ryota Nakatani, 2023. "Does debt maturity influence productivity?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 43(1), pages 116-136.
    21. Chakrabarti, Avik & Zeaiter, Hussein, 2014. "The determinants of sovereign default: A sensitivity analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 300-318.
    22. Manfred Gärtner & Björn Griesbach & Florian Jung, 2011. "PIGS or Lambs? The European Sovereign Debt Crisis and the Role of Rating Agencies," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 17(3), pages 288-299, August.
    23. Moreno Badia, Marialuz & Medas, Paulo & Gupta, Pranav & Xiang, Yuan, 2022. "Debt is not free," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    24. Nakatani, Ryota, 2023. "Debt maturity and firm productivity—The role of intangibles," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 116-121.
    25. Dirk Foremny & Agnese Sacchi & Simone Salotti, 2017. "Decentralization and the duration of fiscal consolidation: shifting the burden across layers of government," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 171(3), pages 359-387, June.
    26. Ryota Nakatani, 2024. "Multifactor productivity growth enhancers across industries and countries: firm-level evidence," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 14(2), pages 401-446, June.
    27. Kumba Digdowiseiso, 2022. "Is Fiscal Decentralization Growth Enhancing? A Cross-Country Study in Developing Countries over the Period 1990–2014," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-17, March.
    28. Ryota Nakatani, 2019. "A Possible Approach to Fiscal Rules in Small Islands — Incorporating Natural Disasters and Climate Change," IMF Working Papers 2019/186, International Monetary Fund.
    29. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Adala Bwire, 2004. "The Economic (in)Efficiency of Devolution," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 36(11), pages 1907-1928, November.
    30. Ryota Nakatani & Qianqian Zhang & Isaura Garcia Valdes, 2024. "Health Expenditure Decentralization and Health Outcomes: The Importance of Governance," Publius: The Journal of Federalism, CSF Associates Inc., vol. 54(1), pages 59-87.
    31. Neyapti, Bilin, 2013. "Fiscal decentralization, fiscal rules and fiscal discipline," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(3), pages 528-532.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ryota Nakatani & Qianqian Zhang & Isaura Garcia Valdes, 2024. "Health Expenditure Decentralization and Health Outcomes: The Importance of Governance," Publius: The Journal of Federalism, CSF Associates Inc., vol. 54(1), pages 59-87.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ryota Nakatani, 2024. "Revenue Decentralization and the Probability of a Fiscal Crisis: Is There a Tipping Point for Adverse Effects?," Public Finance Review, , vol. 52(3), pages 376-396, May.
    2. Ryota Nakatani, 2024. "Multifactor productivity growth enhancers across industries and countries: firm-level evidence," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 14(2), pages 401-446, June.
    3. Ryota Nakatani & Qianqian Zhang & Isaura Garcia Valdes, 2024. "Health Expenditure Decentralization and Health Outcomes: The Importance of Governance," Publius: The Journal of Federalism, CSF Associates Inc., vol. 54(1), pages 59-87.
    4. Ryota Nakatani, 2024. "Food companies' productivity dynamics: Exploring the role of intangible assets," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 185-226, January.
    5. Thanh Cong Nguyen, 2022. "The effects of financial crisis on income inequality," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 40(6), November.
    6. Hasse, Jean-Baptiste & Lecourt, Christelle & Siagh, Souhila, 2024. "Setting up a sovereign wealth fund to reduce currency crises," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    7. Eberhardt, Markus & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2021. "Commodity prices and banking crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    8. Thornton, John & Vasilakis, Chrysovalantis, 2023. "Bank regulations and surges and stops in credit: Panel evidence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    9. Akalbeo, Benard & Martinez-Vazquez, Jorge & Yedgenov, Bauyrzhan, 2023. "Fiscal decentralization and structural versus cyclical unemployment levels," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    10. Mekki Hamdaoui & SaifEddine Ayouni & Samir Maktouf, 2022. "Financial crises: explanation, prediction, and interdependence," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(8), pages 1-52, August.
    11. David Bartolini & Agnese Sacchi & Simone Salotti & Raffaella Santolini, 2018. "Fiscal Decentralization in Times of Financial Crises," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 64(3), pages 456-488.
    12. Santiago Lago-Peñas & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez & Agnese Sacchi, 2020. "Fiscal stability during the Great Recession: putting decentralization design to the test," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(7), pages 919-930, July.
    13. Kose, M. Ayhan & Kurlat, Sergio & Ohnsorge, Franziska & Sugawara, Naotaka, 2022. "A cross-country database of fiscal space," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    14. Nguyen, Thanh Cong & Castro, Vítor & Wood, Justine, 2024. "Social protection spending and financial crises," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    15. Pozo, Jorge, 2023. "Bank risk-taking in emerging economies: Empirical evidence and theory," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    16. Eijffinger, Sylvester C.W. & Karataş, Bilge, 2023. "Three sisters: The interlinkage between sovereign debt, currency, and banking crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    17. Căpraru, Bogdan & Georgescu, George & Sprincean, Nicu, 2022. "Do independent fiscal institutions cause better fiscal outcomes in the European Union?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(2).
    18. Huynh, Tran & Uebelmesser, Silke, 2024. "Early warning models for systemic banking crises: Can political indicators improve prediction?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    19. Thanh Cong Nguyen & Trung Hieu Le, 2024. "Financial crises and the national logistics performance: Evidence from emerging and developing countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 1834-1855, April.
    20. Yuan, Gecheng & Fang, Jie & Sun, Yongping, 2024. "The impact of Fintech on the nexus between household debt and financial crises: A global perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:17:y:2023:i:1:p:9-:d:1306033. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.