[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jimfin/v127y2022ics0261560622000572.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Debt is not free

Author

Listed:
  • Moreno Badia, Marialuz
  • Medas, Paulo
  • Gupta, Pranav
  • Xiang, Yuan
Abstract
Many countries face record public debt levels but have until recently benefited from favorable interest-growth differentials. The empirical evidence on the link between high debt and crises is also inconclusive. This paper re-examines the importance of public debt as a leading indicator of fiscal crises using machine learning techniques to account for complex interactions ignored in the literature. We find that public debt is among the most important predictors: beyond certain debt levels, the likelihood of crises increases regardless of the interest-growth differential. Excessive current account deficits and private credit and their interaction with public debt are also important indicators of distress. These results underscore the risks from high debt levels and the role of broader economic imbalances in the emergence of fiscal crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Moreno Badia, Marialuz & Medas, Paulo & Gupta, Pranav & Xiang, Yuan, 2022. "Debt is not free," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:127:y:2022:i:c:s0261560622000572
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2022.102654
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560622000572
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2022.102654?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gelos, R. Gaston & Sahay, Ratna & Sandleris, Guido, 2011. "Sovereign borrowing by developing countries: What determines market access?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 243-254, March.
    2. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. Végh, 2002. "Modern Hyper- and High Inflations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 837-880, September.
    3. Mauro, Paolo & Romeu, Rafael & Binder, Ariel & Zaman, Asad, 2015. "A modern history of fiscal prudence and profligacy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 55-70.
    4. Dawood, Mary & Horsewood, Nicholas & Strobel, Frank, 2017. "Predicting sovereign debt crises: An Early Warning System approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 16-28.
    5. Òscar Jordá & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2016. "Sovereigns Versus Banks: Credit, Crises, and Consequences," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 45-79.
    6. Ciarlone, Alessio & Trebeschi, Giorgio, 2005. "Designing an early warning system for debt crises," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 376-395, December.
    7. Olivier Blanchard, 2019. "Public Debt and Low Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1197-1229, April.
    8. Frankel, Jeffrey & Saravelos, George, 2012. "Can leading indicators assess country vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008–09 global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 216-231.
    9. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    10. Tongyu Wang & Shangmei Zhao & Guangxiang Zhu & Haitao Zheng, 2021. "A machine learning-based early warning system for systemic banking crises," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(26), pages 2974-2992, June.
    11. Ms. Anastasia Guscina & Sheheryar Malik & Mr. Michael G. Papaioannou, 2017. "Assessing Loss of Market Access: Conceptual and Operational Issues," IMF Working Papers 2017/246, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Andrew Berg & Eduardo Borensztein & Catherine Pattillo, 2005. "Assessing Early Warning Systems: How Have They Worked in Practice?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(3), pages 1-5.
    13. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2012. "Public Debt Overhangs: Advanced-Economy Episodes since 1800," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 69-86, Summer.
    14. Manasse, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 2009. ""Rules of thumb" for sovereign debt crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 192-205, July.
    15. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    16. Pedro N. Rodriguez & Arnulfo Rodriguez, 2006. "Understanding and predicting sovereign debt rescheduling: a comparison of the areas under receiver operating characteristic curves," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(7), pages 459-479.
    17. Martin Bruns & Tigran Poghosyan, 2018. "Leading indicators of fiscal distress: evidence from extreme bounds analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(13), pages 1454-1478, March.
    18. Julio Escolano & Anna Shabunina & Jaejoon Woo, 2017. "The Puzzle of Persistently Negative Interest‐Rate–Growth Differentials: Financial Repression or Income Catch‐Up?," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 38, pages 179-217, June.
    19. Dario Sansone & Anna Zhu, 2023. "Using Machine Learning to Create an Early Warning System for Welfare Recipients," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(5), pages 959-992, October.
    20. Mr. Axel Schimmelpfennig & Nouriel Roubini & Paolo Manasse, 2003. "Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises," IMF Working Papers 2003/221, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Cameron, A. Colin & Gelbach, Jonah B. & Miller, Douglas L., 2011. "Robust Inference With Multiway Clustering," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(2), pages 238-249.
    22. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "The Forgotten History of Domestic Debt," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(552), pages 319-350, May.
    23. Bluwstein, Kristina & Buckmann, Marcus & Joseph, Andreas & Kapadia, Sujit & Şimşek, Özgür, 2023. "Credit growth, the yield curve and financial crisis prediction: Evidence from a machine learning approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    24. Miguel Messmacher & Mark Kruger, 2004. "Sovereign Debt Defaults and Financing Needs," IMF Working Papers 2004/053, International Monetary Fund.
    25. Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Kalotychou, Elena, 2006. "Early warning systems for sovereign debt crises: The role of heterogeneity," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 1420-1441, November.
    26. Juan J. Cruces & Christoph Trebesch, 2013. "Sovereign Defaults: The Price of Haircuts," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 85-117, July.
    27. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Default, Currency Crises, and Sovereign Credit Ratings," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 16(2), pages 151-170, August.
    28. Beirne, John & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2013. "The pricing of sovereign risk and contagion during the European sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 60-82.
    29. Snider, Lewis W., 1990. "The Political Performance of Third World Governments and the Debt Crisis," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 84(4), pages 1263-1280, December.
    30. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Klemm, Alexander & Viefers, Paul, 2016. "Governments’ payment discipline: The macroeconomic impact of public payment delays and arrears," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB), pages 147-165.
    31. Bocola, Luigi & Bornstein, Gideon & Dovis, Alessandro, 2019. "Quantitative sovereign default models and the European debt crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 20-30.
    32. Miss Gabriela Dobrescu & Iva Petrova & Nazim Belhocine & Mr. Emanuele Baldacci, 2011. "Assessing Fiscal Stress," IMF Working Papers 2011/100, International Monetary Fund.
    33. Olivier J Blanchard, 2019. "Public Debt: Fiscal and Welfare Costs in a Time of Low Interest Rates," Policy Briefs PB19-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    34. Sy, Amadou N.R., 2004. "Rating the rating agencies: Anticipating currency crises or debt crises?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2845-2867, November.
    35. International Monetary Fund, 2021. "How to Assess Country Risk: The Vulnerability Exercise Approach Using Machine Learning," IMF Technical Notes and Manuals 2021/003, International Monetary Fund.
    36. Barbara Jarmulska, 2022. "Random forest versus logit models: Which offers better early warning of fiscal stress?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(3), pages 455-490, April.
    37. Jens Hilscher & Yves Nosbusch, 2010. "Determinants of Sovereign Risk: Macroeconomic Fundamentals and the Pricing of Sovereign Debt," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(2), pages 235-262.
    38. Nicholas Crafts, 2016. "Reducing High Public Debt Ratios: Lessons from UK Experience," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 37, pages 201-223, June.
    39. Mr. Tamon Asonuma & Mr. Marcos d Chamon & Aitor Erce & Akira Sasahara, 2019. "Costs of Sovereign Defaults: Restructuring Strategies, Bank Distress and the Capital Inflow-Credit Channel," IMF Working Papers 2019/069, International Monetary Fund.
    40. Veni Arakelian & Petros Dellaportas & Roberto Savona & Marika Vezzoli, 2019. "Sovereign risk zones in Europe during and after the debt crisis," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(6), pages 961-980, June.
    41. Rivoli, Pietra & Brewer, Thomas L., 1997. "Political instability and country risk," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 309-321.
    42. Kose, M. Ayhan & Kurlat, Sergio & Ohnsorge, Franziska & Sugawara, Naotaka, 2022. "A cross-country database of fiscal space," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    43. Chakrabarti, Avik & Zeaiter, Hussein, 2014. "The determinants of sovereign default: A sensitivity analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 300-318.
    44. Frank, Charles Jr. & Cline, William R., 1971. "Measurement of debt servicing capacity: An application of discriminant analysis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 327-344, August.
    45. Marcel Peter, 2002. "Estimating Default Probabilities of Emerging Market Sovereigns: A New Look at a Not-So-New Literature," IHEID Working Papers 06-2002, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    46. Berg, Andrew & Sachs, Jeffrey, 1988. "The debt crisis structural explanations of country performance," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 271-306, November.
    47. Mr. Stanley Fischer & Ms. Ratna Sahay & Mr. Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 2002. "Modern Hyper- and High Inflations," IMF Working Papers 2002/197, International Monetary Fund.
    48. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Maurice Obstfeld, 2012. "Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 226-265, January.
    49. Kursa, Miron B. & Rudnicki, Witold R., 2010. "Feature Selection with the Boruta Package," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 36(i11).
    50. Maltritz, Dominik & Molchanov, Alexander, 2014. "Country credit risk determinants with model uncertainty," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 224-234.
    51. Fioramanti, Marco, 2008. "Predicting sovereign debt crises using artificial neural networks: A comparative approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 149-164, June.
    52. Mr. Julio Escolano, 2010. "A Practical Guide to Public Debt Dynamics, Fiscal Sustainability, and Cyclical Adjustment of Budgetary Aggregates," IMF Technical Notes and Manuals 2010/002, International Monetary Fund.
    53. Mr. Luc Laeven & Mr. Fabian Valencia, 2018. "Systemic Banking Crises Revisited," IMF Working Papers 2018/206, International Monetary Fund.
    54. Samba Mbaye & Ms. Marialuz Moreno Badia & Kyungla Chae, 2018. "Bailing Out the People? When Private Debt Becomes Public," IMF Working Papers 2018/141, International Monetary Fund.
    55. Nicholas Sargen, 1977. "Economic indicators and country risk appraisal," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Fall, pages 19-35.
    56. Hajivassiliou, Vassilis A., 1987. "The external debt repayments problems of LDC's : An econometric model based on panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-2), pages 205-230.
    57. Roberto Savona & Marika Vezzoli, 2015. "Fitting and Forecasting Sovereign Defaults using Multiple Risk Signals," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(1), pages 66-92, February.
    58. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1676-1706, August.
    59. Ms. Enrica Detragiache & Mr. Antonio Spilimbergo, 2001. "Crises and Liquidity: Evidence and Interpretation," IMF Working Papers 2001/002, International Monetary Fund.
    60. Susan Athey, 2018. "The Impact of Machine Learning on Economics," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda, pages 507-547, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    61. Markus Holopainen & Peter Sarlin, 2017. "Toward robust early-warning models: a horse race, ensembles and model uncertainty," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(12), pages 1933-1963, December.
    62. Serkan Arslanalp & Takahiro Tsuda, 2014. "Tracking Global Demand for Advanced Economy Sovereign Debt," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 62(3), pages 430-464, August.
    63. Klaus-Peter Hellwig, 2021. "Predicting Fiscal Crises: A Machine Learning Approach," IMF Working Papers 2021/150, International Monetary Fund.
    64. Citron, Joel-Tomas & Nickelsburg, Gerald, 1987. "Country risk and political instability," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 385-392, April.
    65. Bussiere, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2006. "Towards a new early warning system of financial crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 953-973, October.
    66. A. Georgievska & L. Georgievska & A. Stojanovic & N. Todorovic, 2008. "Sovereign rescheduling probabilities in emerging markets: a comparison with credit rating agencies' ratings," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(9), pages 1031-1051.
    67. Berg, Andrew & Pattillo, Catherine, 1999. "Predicting currency crises:: The indicators approach and an alternative," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 561-586, August.
    68. Stéphanie Pamies Sumner & Katia Berti, 2017. "A Complementary Tool to Monitor Fiscal Stress in European Economies," European Economy - Discussion Papers 049, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    69. Charles Engel & Kristin Forbes & Jeffrey Frankel, 2012. "Global Financial Crisis," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number enge11-2.
    70. Feder, Gershon & Just, Richard & Ross, Knud, 1981. "Projecting Debt Servicing Capacity of Developing Countries," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(5), pages 651-669, December.
    71. Samba Mbaye & Ms. Marialuz Moreno Badia & Kyungla Chae, 2018. "Global Debt Database: Methodology and Sources," IMF Working Papers 2018/111, International Monetary Fund.
    72. Garín, Julio & Lester, Robert & Sims, Eric & Wolff, Jonathan, 2019. "Without looking closer, it may seem cheap: Low interest rates and government borrowing," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 28-32.
    73. Mr. Philip Barrett, 2018. "Interest-Growth Differentials and Debt Limits in Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 2018/082, International Monetary Fund.
    74. Julio Escolano, 2010. "A Practical Guide to Public Debt Dynamics, Fiscal Sustainability, and Cyclical Adjustment of Budgetary Aggregates," IMF Technical Notes and Manuals 10/02, International Monetary Fund.
    75. Ms. Svetlana Cerovic & Mrs. Kerstin Gerling & Andrew Hodge & Mr. Paulo A Medas, 2018. "Predicting Fiscal Crises," IMF Working Papers 2018/181, International Monetary Fund.
    76. Lee, Suk Hun, 1991. "Ability and willingness to service debt as explanation for commercial and official rescheduling cases," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 5-27, February.
    77. Lloyd-Ellis, H. & Mckenzie, G. W. & Thomas, S. H., 1989. "Using country balance sheet data to predict debt rescheduling," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 173-177, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ryota Nakatani, 2024. "Revenue Decentralization and the Probability of a Fiscal Crisis: Is There a Tipping Point for Adverse Effects?," Public Finance Review, , vol. 52(3), pages 376-396, May.
    2. Francesca Caselli & Matilde Faralli & Paolo Manasse & Ugo Panizza, 2021. "On the Benefits of Repaying," IMF Working Papers 2021/233, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Paolo Mauro & Jing Zhou, 2021. "$$r-g," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(1), pages 197-229, March.
    4. Ryota Nakatani, 2023. "Sovereign Debt Crisis and Fiscal Devolution," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(1), pages 1-8, December.
    5. Raffaele Marchi & Alessandro Moro, 2024. "Forecasting Fiscal Crises in Emerging Markets and Low-Income Countries with Machine Learning Models," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 189-213, February.
    6. Hinterlang, Natascha & Hollmayr, Josef, 2020. "Classification of monetary and fiscal dominance regimes using machine learning techniques," Discussion Papers 51/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Hinterlang, Natascha & Hollmayr, Josef, 2021. "Classification of monetary and fiscal dominance regimes using machine learning techniques," IMFS Working Paper Series 160, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    8. Jorge Carrera & Pablo de la Vega, 2024. "The effect of external debt on greenhouse gas emissions," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 48(3), pages 754-776, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lanbiao Liu & Chen Chen & Bo Wang, 2022. "Predicting financial crises with machine learning methods," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(5), pages 871-910, August.
    2. Medas, Paulo & Poghosyan, Tigran & Xu, Yizhi & Farah-Yacoub, Juan & Gerling, Kerstin, 2018. "Fiscal crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 191-207.
      • Mrs. Kerstin Gerling & Mr. Paulo A Medas & Mr. Tigran Poghosyan & Juan Farah-Yacoub & Yizhi Xu, 2017. "Fiscal Crises," IMF Working Papers 2017/086, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Zeaiter, Hussein & El-Khalil, Raed, 2016. "Extreme bounds of sovereign defaults: Evidence from the MENA region," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 391-410.
    4. Tamás Kristóf, 2021. "Sovereign Default Forecasting in the Era of the COVID-19 Crisis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-24, October.
    5. Kose, M. Ayhan & Kurlat, Sergio & Ohnsorge, Franziska & Sugawara, Naotaka, 2022. "A cross-country database of fiscal space," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    6. Chakrabarti, Avik & Zeaiter, Hussein, 2014. "The determinants of sovereign default: A sensitivity analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 300-318.
    7. Martin Bruns & Tigran Poghosyan, 2018. "Leading indicators of fiscal distress: evidence from extreme bounds analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(13), pages 1454-1478, March.
    8. Rho, Caterina & Saenz, Manrique, 2021. "Financial stress and the probability of sovereign default," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    9. Paolo Mauro & Jing Zhou, 2021. "$$r-g," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(1), pages 197-229, March.
    10. Wee Chian Koh & M. Ayhan Kose & Peter S. Nagle & Franziska L. Ohnsorge & Naotaka Sugawara, 2020. "Debt and Financial Crises," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2001, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    11. Barbara Jarmulska, 2022. "Random forest versus logit models: Which offers better early warning of fiscal stress?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(3), pages 455-490, April.
    12. Dawood, Mary & Horsewood, Nicholas & Strobel, Frank, 2017. "Predicting sovereign debt crises: An Early Warning System approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 16-28.
    13. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Trebesch, Christoph, 2014. "A Distant Mirror of Debt, Default, and Relief," Discussion Papers in Economics 21832, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    14. Ms. Svetlana Cerovic & Mrs. Kerstin Gerling & Andrew Hodge & Mr. Paulo A Medas, 2018. "Predicting Fiscal Crises," IMF Working Papers 2018/181, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Casabianca, Elizabeth Jane & Catalano, Michele & Forni, Lorenzo & Giarda, Elena & Passeri, Simone, 2022. "A machine learning approach to rank the determinants of banking crises over time and across countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    16. Zeaiter, Hussein Zeaiter, 2013. "Sovereign Debt Defaults: Evidence using Extreme bounds Analysis," Working Papers 32/2013, Universidade Portucalense, Centro de Investigação em Gestão e Economia (CIGE).
    17. Karatas, B., 2014. "Financial crisis and monetary policy," Other publications TiSEM 41e463f0-e122-4379-8db5-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    18. Mitchener, Kris & Trebesch, Christoph, 2021. "Sovereign Debt in the 21st Century: Looking Backward, Looking Forward," CEPR Discussion Papers 15935, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Jelena Laušev & Aleksandar Stojanović & Nataša Todorović, 2011. "Determinants Of Debt Rescheduling In Eastern European Countries," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 56(188), pages 7-31, January –.
    20. Raffaele Marchi & Alessandro Moro, 2024. "Forecasting Fiscal Crises in Emerging Markets and Low-Income Countries with Machine Learning Models," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 189-213, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crisis; Debt; Sovereign default; Fiscal; Machine learning;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:127:y:2022:i:c:s0261560622000572. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.