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What caused the 1990-1991 recession?

Author

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  • Carl E. Walsh
Abstract
This article decomposes U.S. GDP into components associated with major macroeconomic disturbances in order to identify the likely causes of the 1990 recession. Four types of disturbances--aggregate supply, aggregate spending, money demand and money supply--are identified in the empirical analysis. The results suggest the general slowing of the economy relative to trend prior to the actual downturn was due to restrictive monetary policy. Aggregate spending factors turned contractionary in mid-1990, however, and accounted for most of the subsequent decline in GDP during the rest of 1990.

Suggested Citation

  • Carl E. Walsh, 1993. "What caused the 1990-1991 recession?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 33-48.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfer:y:1993:p:33-48:n:2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Mansur, Alfan, 2015. "Identifying Shocks on the Economic Fluctuations in Indonesia and US: The Role of Oil Price Shocks in a Structural Vector Autoregression Model," MPRA Paper 94018, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Jun 2015.
    3. Arjun & Bibhuti Ranjan Mishra, 2024. "Testing the Balanced Growth Hypothesis in the Presence of Structural Breaks: Evidence from Developed and Developing Countries," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2024(1), pages 1-35.
    4. Sigal Ribon, 2003. "Is it labor, technology or monetary policy ? The Israeli economy 1989-2002," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2003.02b, Bank of Israel.
    5. Chaudhry, Neeru & Au Yong, Hue Hwa & Veld, Chris, 2017. "Tax avoidance in response to a decline in the funding status of defined benefit pension plans," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 99-116.
    6. Menzie D. Chinn & Michael P. Dooley, 1997. "Monetary Policy in Japan, Germany and the United States: Does One Size Fit All?," NBER Working Papers 6092, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Freeman, Alan, 2016. "The Whole of the Storm: Money, debt and crisis in the current Long Depression," MPRA Paper 84394, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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