[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/halshs-01075741.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

L’apport de la représentation VAR de Chrisropher A. Sims à la science économique

Author

Listed:
  • Jean-Baptiste Gossé
  • Cyriac Guillaumin

    (CREG - Centre de recherche en économie de Grenoble - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2)

Abstract
The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences awarded the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2011 to Thomas Sargent and Christopher Sims "for their empirical research on cause and effect in the macroeconomy". In this article we present the contribution for which Sims was awarded. In order to overcome the limitations of Keynesian Macroeconometric models, Sims (1980) made the famous Sims critique and proposed a multivariate model which has deeply influenced economic sciences. After presenting the main contributions of this approach, we conclude with an outlook of the academic researches generated by the Sims' pioneering work.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Baptiste Gossé & Cyriac Guillaumin, 2013. "L’apport de la représentation VAR de Chrisropher A. Sims à la science économique," Post-Print halshs-01075741, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01075741
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jean-Baptiste Gossé & Cyriac Guillaumin, 2010. "L’impact des chocs externes sur et à l’intérieur de la zone euro : les enseignements d’un modèle vectoriel autorégressif structurel," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 195(4), pages 15-33.
    2. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
    3. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 10(Win), pages 2-16.
    4. Sato, Kiyotaka & Zhang, Zhaoyong & McAleer, Michael, 2011. "Identifying shocks in regionally integrated East Asian economies with structural VAR and block exogeneity," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 81(7), pages 1353-1364.
    5. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles, 1996. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Flow of Funds," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 16-34, February.
    6. N. G. Mankiw, 2009. "The Macroeconomist as Scientist and Engineer," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 5.
    7. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Mark Watson, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1), pages 91-157.
    8. David Colander & Peter Howitt & Alan Kirman & Axel Leijonhufvud & Perry Mehrling, 2018. "Beyond DSGE Models: Toward an Empirically Based Macroeconomics," Chapters, in: How Economics Should Be Done, chapter 14, pages 212-216, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Michel De Vroey & Pierre Malgrange, 2012. "From The Keynesian Revolution to the Klein-Goldberger model: Klein and the dynamization of Keynesian theory," History of Economic Ideas, Fabrizio Serra Editore, Pisa - Roma, vol. 20(2), pages 113-136.
    10. Pesaran M.H. & Schuermann T. & Weiner S.M., 2004. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 129-162, April.
    11. Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1989. "A Traditional Interpretation of Macroeconomic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1146-1164, December.
    12. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2006. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 54-81, March.
    13. Catherine Doz & Pierre Malgrange, 1992. "Modèles VAR et prévisions à court terme," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 106(5), pages 109-122.
    14. Matthew D. Shapiro & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1988, Volume 3, pages 111-156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:4:p:545-68 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    17. Claude Deniau & Georges Fiori & Alexandre Mathis, 1992. "Sélection du nombre de retards dans un modèle VAR : conséquences éventuelles du choix des critères," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 106(5), pages 61-69.
    18. Paolo Guarda & Abdelaziz Rouabah & John Theal, 2011. "An MVAR Framework to Capture Extreme Events in Macroprudential Stress Tests," BCL working papers 63, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    19. Catherine Bruneau & Olivier De Bandt, 1999. "La modélisation Var "structurel" : application à la politique monétaire en France," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 137(1), pages 67-94.
    20. John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman, 1999. "Improving forecasts of the federal funds rate in a policy model," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 99-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    21. Christopher A. Sims, 1993. "A Nine-Variable Probabilistic Macroeconomic Forecasting Model," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting, pages 179-212, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Emmanuelle Clément & Jean-Marc Germain, 1993. "VAR et prévisions conjoncturelles," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 32, pages 113-135.
    23. Canova, Fabio, 1993. "Forecasting time series with common seasonal patterns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1-2), pages 173-200.
    24. Jon Faust, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," International Finance Discussion Papers 610, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    25. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 1-78.
    26. Canova, Fabio & Nicolo, Gianni De, 2002. "Monetary disturbances matter for business fluctuations in the G-7," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1131-1159, September.
    27. Kevin D. Hoover & Soren Johansen & Katarina Juselius, 2008. "Allowing the Data to Speak Freely: The Macroeconometrics of the Cointegrated Vector Autoregression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 251-255, May.
    28. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2005. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(1), pages 387-422.
    29. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1986. "Are Business Cycles All Alike?," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 123-180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Cooley, Thomas F. & Leroy, Stephen F., 1985. "Atheoretical macroeconometrics: A critique," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 283-308, November.
    31. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Priors from General Equilibrium Models for VARS," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(2), pages 643-673, May.
    32. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    33. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
    34. Howrey, E Philip, 1971. "Stochastic Properties of the Klein-Goldberger Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(1), pages 73-87, January.
    35. Leamer, Edward E., 1985. "Vector autoregressions for causal inference?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 255-304, January.
    36. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    37. Faust, Jon, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 207-244, December.
    38. Litterman, Robert B, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions-Five Years of Experience," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, January.
    39. Angeloni,Ignazio & Kashyap,Anil K. & Mojon,Benoît (ed.), 2003. "Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521828642, September.
    40. repec:adr:anecst:y:1993:i:32:p:06 is not listed on IDEAS
    41. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1995. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Evidence from the G-7 Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 1219, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    42. Hoffmaister, Alexander W. & Roldos, Jorge E., 2001. "The Sources of Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Brazil and Korea," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 213-239, April.
    43. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall.
    44. Peter van Els & Alberto Locarno & Benoît Mojon & Julian Morgan, 2003. "New Macroeconomic Evidence on Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(2-3), pages 720-730, 04/05.
    45. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    46. Tao Zha, 1998. "A dynamic multivariate model for use in formulating policy," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 83(Q 1), pages 16-29.
    47. Alain DESERRES & René LALONDE, 1995. "Les sources des fluctuations des taux de change en Europe et leurs implications pour l’union monétaire," Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) 1995011, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    48. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    49. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-552, September.
    50. Christopher A. Sims, 1996. "Macroeconomics and Methodology," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 105-120, Winter.
    51. Ehrmann, Michael & Backé, Peter, 2003. "Monetary policy transmission in the euro area: any changes after EMU?," Working Paper Series 240, European Central Bank.
    52. Litterman, Robert, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions -- Five years of experience : Robert B. Litterman, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 4 (1986) 25-38," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 497-498.
    53. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2011. "Thomas J. Sargent and Christopher A. Sims: Empirical Macroeconomics," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2011-2, Nobel Prize Committee.
    2. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    3. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
    4. Dan S. Rickman, 2010. "Modern Macroeconomics And Regional Economic Modeling," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(1), pages 23-41, February.
    5. Lutz Kilian, 2013. "Structural vector autoregressions," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 22, pages 515-554, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Rafiq, M.S. & Mallick, S.K., 2008. "The effect of monetary policy on output in EMU3: A sign restriction approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1756-1791, December.
    7. Ronayne, David, 2011. "Which Impulse Response Function?," Economic Research Papers 270753, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    8. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall.
    9. Scholl, Almuth & Uhlig, Harald, 2008. "New evidence on the puzzles: Results from agnostic identification on monetary policy and exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 1-13, September.
    10. Marek Rusnak & Tomas Havranek & Roman Horvath, 2013. "How to Solve the Price Puzzle? A Meta-Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(1), pages 37-70, February.
    11. Marek Jarocinski, 2010. "Responses to monetary policy shocks in the east and the west of Europe: a comparison," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(5), pages 833-868.
    12. Zha, Tao, 1999. "Block recursion and structural vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 291-316, June.
    13. Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2009. "What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 960-992.
    14. Robert A Buckle & Kunhong Kim & Heather Kirkham & Nathan McLellan & Jared Sharma, 2002. "A structural VAR model of the New Zealand business cycle," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/26, New Zealand Treasury.
    15. Buckle, Robert A. & Kim, Kunhong & Kirkham, Heather & McLellan, Nathan & Sharma, Jarad, 2007. "A structural VAR business cycle model for a volatile small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 990-1017, November.
    16. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Priors from General Equilibrium Models for VARS," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(2), pages 643-673, May.
    17. Piyachart Phiromswad, 2014. "Measuring monetary policy with empirically grounded identifying restrictions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 681-699, March.
    18. Carlo A. Favero, 2009. "The Econometrics of Monetary Policy: An Overview," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Terence C. Mills & Kerry Patterson (ed.), Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics, chapter 16, pages 821-850, Palgrave Macmillan.
    19. Galadima, Mukhtar Danladi & Aminu, Abubakar Wambai, 2019. "Shocks effects of macroeconomic variables on natural gas consumption in Nigeria: Structural VAR with sign restrictions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 135-144.
    20. John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman, 1999. "Prior parameter uncertainty: Some implications for forecasting and policy analysis with VAR models," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 99-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01075741. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.