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Reserve option mechanism as a stabilizing policy tool: Evidence from exchange rate expectations

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  • Değerli, Ahmet
  • Fendoğlu, Salih
Abstract
During the recent era, many emerging market economies have implemented unconventional policy measures to mitigate the effect of large swings in short-term capital flows on domestic business cycles. This paper focuses on a novel capital flow management tool, the reserve option mechanism (ROM) introduced by the Central Bank of Turkey, that allows banks to hold a certain fraction of their domestic-currency required reserves in foreign currency. The results suggest that, after the introduction the ROM (i) market expectations leaned towards a significantly lower volatility or skewness in the U.S. dollar/Turkish lira (USD/TL) relative to other emerging market exchange rates; (ii) controlling for a set of domestic and common external factors, the USD/TL expectations have exhibited lower levels of volatility, skewness and kurtosis; (iii) the higher the intensity of ROM (the fraction of ROM-based reserves in total international reserves) the stronger the effect of ROM on exchange rate expectations. Last, we provide evidence that the mechanism acts as an automatic stabilizer of expectations about excessive movements in the exchange rate: the mechanism decreases the sensitivity of expected USD/TL kurtosis to the common external factor (by an estimated decrease of about 85%). In sum, the results provide evidence that the mechanism contains market expectations about excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate, decreasing expected likelihood of an abrupt reversal of capital flows.

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  • Değerli, Ahmet & Fendoğlu, Salih, 2015. "Reserve option mechanism as a stabilizing policy tool: Evidence from exchange rate expectations," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 166-179.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:35:y:2015:i:c:p:166-179
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2014.09.011
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    Cited by:

    1. Hakan Kara, 2016. "A brief assessment of Turkey's macroprudential policy approach : 2011–2015," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 16(3), pages 85-92.
    2. Aytuğ, Hüseyin, 2017. "Does the reserve options mechanism really decrease exchange rate volatility? The synthetic control method approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 405-416.
    3. Yeldan A. Erinc & Kolsuz Gunes & Unuvar Burcu, 2014. "What to Smooth: Rate of Interest or the Foreign Exchange? Turkish Monetary Policy under Turbulent Times," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 247-261, December.
    4. Ahmet Aysan & Salih Fendoglu & Mustafa Kilinc, 2014. "Managing short-term capital flows in new central banking: unconventional monetary policy framework in Turkey," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 4(1), pages 45-69, June.
    5. repec:agr:journl:v:4(605):y:2015:i:4(605):p:133-144 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Umit BULUT, 2015. "The Interest Rate Corridor as a Macroprudential Tool to Mitigate Rapid Growth in Credits: Evidence from Turkey," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(4(605), W), pages 133-144, Winter.
    7. Hakan Kara, 2016. "Turkey's experience with macroprudential policy," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Macroprudential policy, volume 86, pages 123-139, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Oduncu, Arif & Ermişoğlu, Ergun & Polat, Tandogan, 2013. "Credit Growth Volatility," MPRA Paper 49058, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Yugang He & Zhuoqi Teng, 2024. "Navigating Uncharted Waters: The Transformation of the Bank of Korea’s Monetary Policy in Response to Global Economic Uncertainty," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-24, May.
    10. repec:agr:journl:v:4(605):y:2015:i:4(605):p:135-146 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Akturk, Halit & Gocen, Hasan & Duran, Suleyman, 2015. "Money Multiplier under Reserve Option Mechanism," MPRA Paper 64803, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unconventional monetary policy; Reserve option mechanism; Options-based exchange rate expectations; Risk neutral density;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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