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What to Smooth: Rate of Interest or the Foreign Exchange? Turkish Monetary Policy under Turbulent Times

Author

Listed:
  • Yeldan A. Erinc

    (Department of Economics, Bilkent University, Ankara 06800, Turkey)

  • Kolsuz Gunes

    (Department of Political Science, Bilkent University, Ankara, Turkey)

  • Unuvar Burcu

    (Department of Economics, Yasar University, İzmir, Turkey)

Abstract
This paper studies the new monetary stance of the Central Bank of Republic of Turkey (CBRT) during the Great Recession. We note that characteristics of the post-1997 “Great Moderation” revealed interest rate smoothing as a valid policy option for the inflation targeting central banks. Utilizing econometric analysis on a general form of a Taylor Rule, we search for the relative weights of the objective function of the CBRT over Jan 2010–Dec 2013. We find that over the Great Recession, the CBRT’s focus on “interest smoothing” had been maintained; and yet the burden of adjustment fell disproportionately on the foreign exchange markets. Furthermore, weak credibility of the CBRT, lack of a simple policy rule, and noisy policy communications evidence that pre-requisites of the interest rate smoothing are not being fulfilled. Inevitable sharp policy corrections that follow smoothing periods proved insufficient against the voluminous global flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Yeldan A. Erinc & Kolsuz Gunes & Unuvar Burcu, 2014. "What to Smooth: Rate of Interest or the Foreign Exchange? Turkish Monetary Policy under Turbulent Times," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 247-261, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:rmeecf:v:10:y:2014:i:3:p:15:n:4
    DOI: 10.1515/rmeef-2014-0036
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yasin Akçelik & Ahmet Faruk Aysan & Arif Oduncu, 2013. "Central Banking in Making during the Post-Crisis World and the Policy-Mix of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 2(2), pages 5-18.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation targeting; interest rate smoothing; monetary policy; financial stability; credibility; Turkey;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F65 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Finance
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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