[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jpolmo/v30y2008i6p1061-1081.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Relative inflation-forecast as monetary policy target for convergence to the euro

Author

Listed:
  • Orlowski, Lucjan T.
Abstract
A monetary policy framework based on targeting a relative inflation-forecast is proposed for the economies converging to the euro. Such strategy aims at containing the differentials between the domestic and the implicit monetary union inflation-forecasts. Hence, these differentials become a basis for setting an operational policy target. The proposed framework can be viewed as an extension of flexible inflation targeting that prioritizes low and stable inflation over the exchange rate stability. It is believed to be consistent with the Maastricht convergence criteria and can be implemented in concurrence with the exchange rate stability benchmark for the ERM2. Several empirical tests are conducted to determine feasibility of adopting an instrument rule for the proposed policy framework in the three largest inflation-targeting candidates to the euro: the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. The stability tests as well as the volatility dynamics tests suggest that adoption of the relative inflation-forecast targeting framework is possible in these countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2008. "Relative inflation-forecast as monetary policy target for convergence to the euro," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1061-1081.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:30:y:2008:i:6:p:1061-1081
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0161-8938(08)00005-7
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Roman Matoušek & Anita Taci, 2003. "Direct Inflation Targeting and Nominal Convergence: The Czech Case," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 269-283, July.
    2. Kocenda, Evzen & Valachy, Juraj, 2006. "Exchange rate volatility and regime change: A Visegrad comparison," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 727-753, December.
    3. Kocenda, Evzen & Kutan, Ali M. & Yigit, Taner M., 2006. "Pilgrims to the Eurozone: How far, how fast?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 311-327, December.
    4. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 607-654, June.
    5. Mervyn A. King, 1996. "How should central banks reduce inflation? - Conceptual issues," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 81(Q IV), pages 25-52.
    6. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2004. "Money rules for the eurozone candidate countries," ZEI Working Papers B 05-2004, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    7. Lucjan Orlowski, 2003. "Monetary Convergence and Risk Premiums in the EU Accession Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 251-267, July.
    8. Dibooglu, Sel & Kutan, Ali M., 2005. "Sources of inflation and output movements in Poland and Hungary: Policy implications for accession to the economic and monetary union," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 107-131, March.
    9. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "What Is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 426-477, June.
    10. Jon Faust & Dale W. Henderson, 2004. "Is inflation targeting best-practice monetary policy?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 86(Jul), pages 117-144.
    11. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February.
    12. Mervyn A. King, 1996. "How should central banks reduce inflation? conceptual issues," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 53-91.
    13. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2001. "Monetary convergence of the EU candidates to the Euro: A theoretical framework and policy implications," ZEI Working Papers B 25-2001, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    14. Golinelli, Roberto & Rovelli, Riccardo, 2005. "Monetary policy transmission, interest rate rules and inflation targeting in three transition countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 183-201, January.
    15. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2000. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging-Market Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 105-109, May.
    16. Robert Engle, 2004. "Risk and Volatility: Econometric Models and Financial Practice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(3), pages 405-420, June.
    17. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2001. "From inflation targeting to the euro-peg: A model of monetary convergence for transition economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 233-251, September.
    18. Paul De Grauwe & Gunther Schnabl, 2005. "Nominal Versus Real Convergence – EMU Entry Scenarios for the New Member States," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(4), pages 537-555, November.
    19. Monika Blaszkiewicz & Przemek Kowalski & Lukasz Rawdanowicz & Przemyslaw Wozniak, 2004. "Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Effect in Selected Countries of Central and Eastern Europe," CASE Network Reports 0057, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    20. Andrew T. Levin & Fabio M. Natalucci & Jeremy M. Piger, 2004. "The macroeconomic effects of inflation targeting," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 86(Jul), pages 51-80.
    21. Laurence M. Ball, 1999. "Policy Rules for Open Economies," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 127-156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2005. "Monetary convergence of the EU accession countries to the eurozone: A theoretical framework and policy implications," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 203-225, January.
    23. International Monetary Fund, 2000. "Exchange Rate Regimes in Selected Advanced Transition Economies: Coping with Transition, Capital Inflows, and EU Accession," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 2000/003, International Monetary Fund.
    24. repec:bil:bilpap:0501 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Egert, Balazs & Drine, Imed & Lommatzsch, Kirsten & Rault, Christophe, 2003. "The Balassa-Samuelson effect in Central and Eastern Europe: myth or reality?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 552-572, September.
    26. Gergely Kiss, 2005. "Monetary policy issues in Hungary on the eve of EU membership," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation and monetary policy in emerging markets, volume 23, pages 156-60, Bank for International Settlements.
    27. Agnes Csermely, 2004. "Convergence Expectations and Convergence Strategies. Lessons from the Hungarian Experiences in the pre-EU period1," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 46(1), pages 104-126, March.
    28. Ser-Huang Poon & Clive W.J. Granger, 2003. "Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 478-539, June.
    29. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1.
    30. Mr. Scott Roger & Mr. Mark R. Stone, 2005. "On Target? the International Experience with Achieving Inflation Targets," IMF Working Papers 2005/163, International Monetary Fund.
    31. Mr. Paul R Masson, 1999. "Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy of Transition Economies of Central and Eastern Europe after the Launch of EMU," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 1999/005, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lucjan T Orlowski & Anna Tsibulina, 2014. "Integration of Central and Eastern European and the Euro-Area Financial Markets: Repercussions from the Global Financial Crisis," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 56(3), pages 376-395, September.
    2. Gabrisch, Hubert & Orlowski, Lucjan T. & Pusch, Toralf, 2012. "Sovereign default Risk in the Euro-Periphery and the Euro-Candidate Countries," MPRA Paper 41265, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. El-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian, 2013. "Money and inflation: Consequences of the recent monetary policy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 520-537.
    4. Lucjan T. Orlowski, 2012. "Financial crisis and extreme market risks: Evidence from Europe," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 21(3), pages 120-130, September.
    5. Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca & Morales-Zumaquero, Amalia & Égert, Balázs, 2010. "The effect of foreign shocks in Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 461-477, July.
    6. Lucjan T. Orlowski, 2008. "Stages of the Ongoing Global Financial Crisis: Is There a Wandering Asset-Price Bubble?," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0372, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    7. Gorman, Michael & Orlowski, Lucjan T. & Roessler, Matthew H., 2020. "Dynamic interactions between Central European currencies and the euro," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(3).
    8. Hiranya Nath & Kiril Tochkov, 2013. "Relative inflation dynamics in the new EU member countries of Central and Eastern Europe," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 1-22, August.
    9. Mihaela Simionescu, 2014. "A Comparative Analysis Of Real And Predicted Inflation Convergence In Cee Countries During The Economic Crisis," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 6(2), pages 142-155, July.
    10. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2016. "Co-movements of non-Euro EU currencies with the Euro," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 376-383.
    11. Hubert Gabrisch & Lucjan T. Orlowski, 2010. "Interest Rate Convergence in Euro-Candidate Countries: Volatility Dynamics of Sovereign Bond Yields," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(6), pages 69-85, November.
    12. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2008. "Stages of the 2007/2008 Global Financial Crisis Is There a Wandering Asset-Price Bubble?," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-43, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    13. Kocenda, Evzen & Poghosyan, Tigran, 2009. "Macroeconomic sources of foreign exchange risk in new EU members," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2164-2173, November.
    14. Rebeca Jiménez-Rodriguez & Amalia Morales-Zumaquero & Balazs Egert, 2010. "The VARying Effect of Foreign Shocks in Central and Eastern Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 3080, CESifo.
    15. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2010. "Monetary policy rules for convergence to the Euro," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 148-159, June.
    16. Evžen Koèenda & Tigran Poghosyan, 2010. "Exchange Rate Risk in Central European Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 60(1), pages 22-39, February.
    17. Evžen Kočenda & Jan Hanousek, 2012. "State ownership and control in the Czech Republic," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 157-191, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lucjan T. Orlowski, 2005. "Targeting Relative Inflation Forecast as Monetary Policy Framework for Adopting the Euro," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp754, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    2. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2010. "Monetary policy rules for convergence to the Euro," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 148-159, June.
    3. Orlowski, Lucjan T. & Rybinski, Krzysztof, 2006. "Implications of ERM2 for Poland's monetary policy," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 346-365, December.
    4. Lucjan T. Orlowski, 2005. "Monetary Policy Adjustments on the Final Passage towards the Euro," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0294, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    5. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2004. "Exchange rate risk and convergence to the Euro," ZEI Working Papers B 25-2004, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    6. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2005. "Monetary convergence of the EU accession countries to the eurozone: A theoretical framework and policy implications," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 203-225, January.
    7. Kocenda, Evzen & Valachy, Juraj, 2006. "Exchange rate volatility and regime change: A Visegrad comparison," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 727-753, December.
    8. Mariusz Jarmuzek & Lucjan T. Orlowski & Artur Radziwill, 2004. "Monetary Policy Transparency in Inflation Targeting Countries: the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0281, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    9. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2002. "Monetary convergence and risk premiums in the EU candidate countries," ZEI Working Papers B 26-2002, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    10. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2001. "Monetary convergence of the EU candidates to the Euro: A theoretical framework and policy implications," ZEI Working Papers B 25-2001, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    11. Hubert Gabrisch & Lucjan T Orlowski, 2011. "Extreme Risks in Financial Markets and Monetary Policies of the Euro-Candidates," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 53(4), pages 511-534, December.
    12. Akosah, Nana Kwame & Alagidede, Imhotep Paul & Schaling, Eric, 2020. "Testing for asymmetry in monetary policy rule for small-open developing economies: Multiscale Bayesian quantile evidence from Ghana," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    13. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 607-654, June.
    14. Siok Kun, Sek, 2009. "The impacts of economic structures on the performance of simple policy rules in a small open economy," MPRA Paper 25065, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Svensson, Lars E.O., 2010. "Inflation Targeting," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 22, pages 1237-1302, Elsevier.
    16. Flamini, Alessandro, 2007. "Inflation targeting and exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1113-1150, November.
    17. Lucjan Orlowski, 2003. "Monetary Convergence and Risk Premiums in the EU Accession Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 251-267, July.
    18. Hartmann, Daniel, 2001. "Taylor-Regel und amerikanische Geldpolitik," Violette Reihe: Schriftenreihe des Promotionsschwerpunkts "Globalisierung und Beschäftigung" 17/2001, University of Hohenheim, Carl von Ossietzky University Oldenburg, Evangelisches Studienwerk.
    19. Chaouech, Olfa, 2015. "Taylor rule in practice : Evidence from tunisia," MPRA Paper 66771, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Sep 2015.
    20. Evžen Koèenda & Tigran Poghosyan, 2010. "Exchange Rate Risk in Central European Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 60(1), pages 22-39, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:30:y:2008:i:6:p:1061-1081. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.