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Monetary Policy Transmission, Interest Rate Rules and Inflation Targeting in Three Transition Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Roberto Golinelli

    (Department of Economics, University of Bologna (Italy))

  • Riccardo Rovelli

    (Department of Economics, University of Bologna (Italy))

Abstract
In 1991, the rate of inflation in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland was between 35% and 70%. At the end of 2001, it is below 8%. We setup a small structural macro model of these economies to explain the process of disinflation. Contrary to a widespread skepticism, which permeated a large part of previous research on these issues, we show that a simple open macroeconomic model, along the lines of Svensson (2000, Journal of International Economics), with forward-looking inflation and exchange rate expectations, can adequately characterize the relationship between the output gap, inflation, the real interest rate and the exchange rate during the course of transition. We use the estimated models to interpret the main features of monetary policy in each country and identify the channels of policy transmission. We characterize the policy rules and assess the relative importance of the interest rate channel (on aggregate demand) and the exchange rate channel (which affects both aggregate demand and supply) in determining the path of (dis)inflation. In the same context, we also tentatively analyze the consequences of attempting a faster path of disinflation. Finally, we evaluate the appropriateness of the inflation targeting framework which has been adopted recently in all three countries, and discuss to what extent it represents a discontinuity with the past.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberto Golinelli & Riccardo Rovelli, 2002. "Monetary Policy Transmission, Interest Rate Rules and Inflation Targeting in Three Transition Countries," Eastward Enlargement of the Euro-zone Working Papers wp10, Free University Berlin, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, revised 01 Aug 2002.
    • Handle: RePEc:ezo:ezppap:wp10
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Disinflation policy; Interest rate rules; Inflation targeting; Transition economies; Small open-economy macro models.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • P24 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation

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