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Public debt and r-g risks in advanced economies: Eurozone versus stand-alone

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  • Heimberger, Philipp
Abstract
Differentials between interest rates on government bonds (r) and economic growth rates (g) are a key determinant of public debt dynamics. What are the predictors of r-g, and what risks do policy-makers face? Applying regression methods to data on 22 OECD countries over 1970–2018 shows that higher public debt levels are not predictive of more unfavourable r-g in both Eurozone and stand-alone countries, where the latter issue debt in their own currency. The Euro Crisis – a period characterised by doubts over whether the ECB would backstop government bond markets – is linked with more unfavourable r-g, but only in Euro periphery countries. Our results suggest that the Eurozone’s institutional architecture affects r-g risks. While we find that predicted probabilities of future r – g < 0 are typically significantly higher than 50 % across OECD economies under conditions similar to the pre-Covid-19 years, r-g risks are most significant in the Euro periphery.

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  • Heimberger, Philipp, 2023. "Public debt and r-g risks in advanced economies: Eurozone versus stand-alone," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:136:y:2023:i:c:s0261560623000785
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2023.102877
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    Cited by:

    1. Philipp Heimberger, 2023. "Do Interest-growth Differentials Affect Fiscal Policy? Evidence for Advanced Economies," wiiw Working Papers 230, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    2. Cooray, Arusha & Özmen, Ibrahim, 2024. "The role of institutions on public debt: A quantile regression approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 912-928.
    3. Heylen, Freddy & Mareels, Marthe & Van Langenhove, Christophe, 2024. "Long-run perspectives on r-g in OECD countries: An empirical analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Public debt; Interest-growth differentials; Fiscal policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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